Tag Archives: analyst

next_gen_consoles

Analyst Doesn’t Believe Wii U Will Ever Catch Up With PlayStation 4 And Xbox One

Ed Barton, a video games industry analyst at Ovum consultancy, has told the BBC that he doesn’t hold any hope of the Wii U catching up with the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One in terms of sales. Barton acknowledges that the company has some great games in the pipeline but is unconvinced that they will make consumers invest in Wii U.

“They have a relatively good games pipeline, but the big question is about its hardware.”

“The Wii U is so far behind now, and the perception of the audience that it’s a relatively under-powered console compared to the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One is now pretty firmly cemented.”

“Given how inaccurate some of Nintendo’s forecasts have been going into their results in terms of hardware and software sales in the past, I’m not optimistic.”

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Analyst David Gibson Projects That Nintendo Won’t Quit Hardware

David Gibson, Senior Analyst and Regional Head of Software & Services at Macquarie Research Japan, has told CNBC that despite Nintendo’s current struggles he very much doubts that Nintendo will exit the hardware business. Instead Gibson thinks that Nintendo will focus on opening up its own platform for developers.

CNBC Host:
And remember, as Kari was highlighting to us, plenty of earnings on tap this week: Nintendo will reveal the magnitude of their troubles with their full year earnings due out Wednesday. At least, given the sizable setback that we see on the Nikkei, Nintendo quite fairly resilient we should say, down only just by a third of 1% (-0.29%). The company has warned it is headed for its third consecutive annual loss, weighed down by weak Wii U sales. Nintendo slashed its Wii U [yearly] sales forecast by almost 70% to 2.8 million units for the year [April 2013 - March 2014]. This is [after] rivals Sony and Microsoft racked up huge sales last year for the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One since their launches in November. Let’s get straight out to Tokyo, just next to Kari is David Gibson, senior analyst and regional head of Software & Services at Macquarie Research Japan, and remember our guest host for the hour Wong Sui Jau, General Manager of Fundsupermart.com. David, very nice to see you again. So, is this a case for Nintendo where it’s no longer really about the Dollar / Yen story, it’s just that they just don’t have the right strategies in place, and there’s not much that Super Mario can do?

David Gibson, Senior Analyst and Regional Head, Macquarie Research Japan:
That’s right. They’ve been getting beaten like Nokia has been by Apple, by Samsung, Google Play, and that’s a real challenge for them, for you and I as consumers. You know, we buy our smartphones and tablets and we have a whole plethora of options that are free to play, that sort of thing isn’t viable on the Nintendo platforms. So, obviously though, as she said, they have great brands, which they still need to try and monetize, but we do think there are some things they can do. But it’s not going to be the hope that some would that they’ll exit hardware. We think that remains off the agenda in this stage in this strategy session coming up this week.

CNBC Host:
Yeah is it just simply too late to get in on the whole mobile sphere, because that’s where everything is going whether you look at one company or another’s earnings, it’s all about how quickly and efficiently they have that strategy worked out.

David Gibson, Senior Analyst and Regional Head, Macquarie Research Japan:
Yeah, that’s right. Iwata-san the president has had a smartphone, had an iPhone for many years, and a Mac laptop when he presents—so he’s known about the threat. But really, I think he’s misunderstood the pricing difference that free-to-play really does dominate now globally for mobile games. His angle is “We provide quality and hence people pay upfront,” but look, you know, we’ve all got alternatives, we’ve got alternatives for our entertainment now, and they look much less competitive. So, what we think the option for him is a simple one…is that…he might try and copy the store rather than join them, he might actually do what they are doing and open up his own platform for developers. It’s very difficult now for anyone now to sign up for an individual developer like you can with Apple…you know, it’s very simple cost. We think Nintendo might actually open it up themselves, which means you’d be able to get Clash of Clans and Puzzles & Dragons on the Nintendo platform, but also get Mario as well. And that’s their potential strategy…we see it potentially announced on Thursday.

CNBC Host 2:
Hi David, sitting next to Chloe in Singapore. You know, I’m not a gaming expert, but just curious…you know, the market seems to be discriminating against Nintendo, and criticizing it for not moving “with the cheese,” so to speak…and making its games more readily available on these mobile devices…but what about all of the other competitors?

David Gibson, Senior Analyst and Regional Head, Macquarie Research Japan:
Do you mean from the Mario brands, I’m presuming that’s what you mean?

CNBC Host 2:
Yes, talking about the Sonys of this world, and also the Microsoft Xbox…are all their games available on these mobile devices?

David Gibson, Senior Analyst and Regional Head, Macquarie Research Japan:
Tend to be both have a strategy, yes. PlayStation and Xbox Glass, definitely they’re putting their titles on other platforms and making them…the main PS4 and the main Xbox One games made by each other are not on other platforms, but generally speaking yes they are doing mobile as well. But relying on the installbase of smartphones and tablets, that’s their leverage play, not as hardware manufacturers on portables, as Nintendo has intended to do.

CNBC Host 2:
Ah, okay. What is the best way forward for Nintendo? I mean, we’re talking about what happened to Sega of course in the old days and dumping their console device, is that the path that would be best for Nintendo in this console environment?

David Gibson, Senior Analyst and Regional Head, Macquarie Research Japan:
You know, long term it probably is, but I think we’re a year or two before that ever gets considered. In the meantime he’s going to try and fix what they have. The reality is, the 3DS—yes the Wii U has been a disaster—but the 3DS has not so far. Even though they cut their numbers, software sales in North America are up 45% year-on-year, hardware sales are up 15%, you know, he’s actually getting growth out of that for the moment. Not huge growth like we see on smartphones, that says to me, to him and the market that we gonna stick with our strategy and try and make ourselves more relevant to smartphones…and I think that’s going to be a challenge.

CNBC Host 2:
I wonder…in the old days, so to speak (I’m only talking about 5 years ago), people used to say “Well, to stay one head of the game, you’ve really got to come up with new games and new software to keep these gamers interested.” In terms of the competition, does Nintendo have that right? Is it at all about the types of games they’re coming out with to attract this certain audience?

David Gibson, Senior Analyst and Regional Head, Macquarie Research Japan:
It’s a good question. I think they’ve traditionally made a real mix of titles, and what I mean by that is the titles that are attractive to everybody, not only to the core gamer but also the more casual user, using the brands of Mario. I think the challenge then is that now, that as more casual users in particular—the Wii audience for example—we’ve all got smartphones and tablets now and we’re playing other games, and I think that’s their challenge. It’s just our time is going elsewhere. And so he’s got the good brands but not as relevant from a pricing point of view…but engagement and experience? Definitely. They’ve introduced lots of innovations to the games market over the last decade or two. So you’re right, they need to do some more innovation basically and they need to come out and surprise us basically on their games and also maybe even new hardware going forward.

CNBC Host:
Yeah, a lot of homework to do it seems like over there…certainly the element of surprise has been lacking on that front. Thank you so much for that. Always nice to hear your thoughts. David Gibson of Macquarie Research Japan.

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Analyst Predicts Nintendo Will Lower Wii U Sales Forecast Again

An analyst has predicted that Nintendo will once again lower its Wii U sales forecast. Although the company expects to sell nine million Wii U consoles by the end of its 2014 fiscal year, research analyst David Gibson says he thinks that figure will be lowered to 4.3 million, even though Super Mario 3D World – which was released toward the end of November – probably helped drive Wii U sales in December.

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Analyst Predicts PS4 Will Likely Outsell Wii U By Summer

Michael Pachter has predicted that the PlayStation 4 will likely outsell the Wii U by the summer. The Wedbush Securities analyst is adamant that Sony’s latest system – which launched in November 2013 – will surpass the Wii U console’s lifetime sales in 2014. Pachter previously said that he thinks Wii U will sell less than 20 million units by 2016.

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Pachter: Sony’s and Microsoft’s New Consoles To Thrive, Wii U To Sell Under 20 Million By 2016

Online gaming publication Kotaku has enlisted the help of famed industry analyst Michael Pachter to analyse the fortunes of the Xbox One, PlayStation 4 and Wii U. Pachter sent the following email to a variety of investors, reporters and other members of the video game industry. He expects that Sony will sell 37.7 million PS4 consoles and Microsoft will sell 29 million Xbox One consoles by year-end 2016. However, Pachter expects Wii U sales to be under 20 million by 2016.

  • We expect Sony’s and Microsoft’s new consoles to thrive over the next three years, with cumulative worldwide sales of 37.7 million PS4 and 29 million Xbox One consoles by year-end 2016. We do not expect Nintendo’s Wii U to fare as well, with cumulative sales of under 20 million by 2016.
  • Our overall forecast is based upon several assumptions: first, we expect console prices to decline only modestly over the next three years, with PS4 pricing in the U.S. dropping from $399.99 at launch to $299.99 by 2016 and with Xbox One pricing in the U.S. dropping from $499.99 at launch to $349.99 by 2016; second, we expect new release software pricing to remain at $59.99 in the U.S. for the next three years; finally, we expect Nintendo to continue producing the Wii U. Should any of these assumptions prove to be incorrect, hardware and software sales will be affected, and it is highly likely that the ultimate results will differ significantly from our forecast.P

Thanks, Anony-Mouse

Analyst Says Wii U Hurt By Retailer Confusion And Misinformation

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Christine Arrington, the Senior Games Analyst at IHS Electronics & Media, says that it’s partially uninformed retailers to blame for the Wii U confusion. Benzinga said that she realized that the Wii U was in trouble when she became an unofficial secret shopper. Benzinga said that if you went into a retailer and you talked to somebody in the games department, they didn’t even understand what it was. This comes despite the news that Nintendo doesn’t think that the name of the console is a real issue.

“If you went into a retailer and you talked to somebody in the games department, they didn’t even understand what it was. “I’m standing there, looking at them, going, ‘Wow! I think that right there was an anecdotal piece of evidence [showing] that people didn’t get it.”

“There should have been a Wii Sports-type game that let everybody get it. Those huge franchises would have gotten the loyal Nintendo person, but it was Wii Sports that got all the people outside the Nintendo world to look and say, ‘This is a really, really neat, fun thing to do. I think it would have definitely fallen below Wii. I think there was something really special about the Wii and the way that whole thing happened that they didn’t even know was going to happen.”

Thanks, Rich

 

Analyst Predicts Animal Crossing: New Leaf Sales Hit 500,000 In US

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According to a note released from analyst Doug Creutz of Cowen & Company, Animal Crossing: New Leaf sold through 500,000 copies in June in the U.S. The NPD Group is expected to soon release sales data for June, which should reveal the official number of how many units the game had sold during last month. Animal Crossing: New Leaf, which was released on June 9th in North America, is available at both retail and the Nintendo eShop for Nintendo 3DS.

Wii U Is Apparently ‘Struggling Mightily’

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Cowen & Company analyst Doug Creutz says that the Wii U is “struggling mightily” to gain traction. Creutz is convinced that Nintendo will introduce what he says is a badly needed price cut during E3. Creutz does think that a price cut and strong key franchises could turn things around for the troubled console, but says that Nintendo’s window for igniting interest in Wii U is closing rapidly due to the forthcoming consoles from Microsoft and Sony.

“After seven months on the market, Nintendo’s Wii U is struggling mightily. We note that the company has essentially abandoned the field to Microsoft and Sony at this year’s E3 as Nintendo will not be holding a press conference.”

“However, we do think there is a decent chance that Nintendo could announce a price cut for the Wii U at E3 in an effort to bring attention to the console and boost sales. We note that the console will have a series of key new games coming out through the late summer and fall, beginning with Pikmin 3 in August. Nintendo’s window for igniting interest in its console is closing with Microsoft and Sony’s competing machines soon to come to market.”

Analyst: Nintendo Bailing On E3 Press Conference Because It Can’t Compete With Microsoft & Sony

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Games Industry International has gathered together a group of industry analysts to find out whether Nintendo is making the right call by not participating in a press conference at this year’s E3 event in June. Industry analyst Brendan Sinclair says that the company isn’t having a press event this year simply because it knows it can’t compete against the next Xbox from Microsoft and the PlayStation 4 from Sony. Here’s Sinclair’s thoughts.

“Yes, Nintendo bailing on the Big Three press conferences is an admission that the company doesn’t have faith in its ability to go toe-to-toe with Sony and Microsoft’s new system unveilings. But that’s just being realistic at a time when Nintendo can ill-afford to blow money for the sake of keeping up appearances. But I think the more interesting thing this move tells us is not how Nintendo feels about its own efforts, but how it feels about the relevance of the gaming media in general, and E3 in specific.

“By putting its announcements into a series of Nintendo Direct videos, Nintendo has realized that its fans want big, eventful news, but they don’t actually need a big event to deliver it. All they need is a pre-recorded streaming video of announcements and a countdown clock. If Nintendo can provide that, gamers will show up in droves, because it delivers on the things they value (excitement, immediacy, and actual news, in that order) while eliminating things they don’t value (an expensive venue, the uncertainty of a live event, and the media’s function as a filter of information).

“As for E3, it’s clear the show doesn’t work for everyone; it’s just too big, too busy, and too expensive. The industry tried adapting to those realities in 2007 when it had a radically downsized E3 in Santa Monica. The show received a mixed reaction from attendees and publishers alike, and was returned to the cavernous Los Angeles Convention Center the following year. But the gaming industry was still growing in 2007, just a year ahead of its all-time peak. If the Santa Monica experiment were held this year, it’s hard to picture the same support for moving the show back to essentially the format that everybody complained about in the first place. It’s doubly unlikely once you consider the products E3 was designed to promote–packaged retail games–are no longer the focus of the industry. Times are tough, and companies are increasingly pragmatic when it comes to expenses of any kind.

“Nintendo’s move is simply an acknowledgement of this, and an attempt to optimize its limited resources, putting them where they will do the most good for business, not image. It’s an approach you can expect plenty of other companies to follow, which should be more concerning for the gaming media and E3 as a whole than it is for Nintendo.”

Analyst Says Nintendo “Forgot Marketing 101″ For Wii U

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Games Industry International has gathered together a group of analysts to discus Nintendo’s recent fiscal report and the company’s move to appoint Satoru Iwata as CEO of the North American division. David Cole of DFC Intelligence described Nintendo of America’s marketing as being a “disaster on every single level.” Cole then went on to say that “they forgot Marketing 101 for the Wii U” and that “a change in execution was long overdue.”

“Nintendo of America’s performance the past couple years has been a disaster on almost every level. Much of this was due to lack of execution on basic stuff like product marketing. They forgot Marketing 101 for the Wii U and no product could have done well without basic marketing support. Clearly a change in execution was long overdue. The damage done is enormous but there is the possibility of a turnaround. The fact is that the general public is not really aware the Wii U even exists so it is an opportunity to almost start from scratch.”