Michael Pachter has predicted that the PlayStation 4 will likely outsell the Wii U by the summer. The Wedbush Securities analyst is adamant that Sony’s latest system – which launched in November 2013 – will surpass the Wii U console’s lifetime sales in 2014. Pachter previously said that he thinks Wii U will sell less than 20 million units by 2016.
Famed web analyst Michael Pachter has been sharing his views on Nintendo at this year’s London Games Conference – and it’s not exactly pretty. In a string of tweets posted by MCV and Games Industry Biz, Pachter has stated he thinks the Wii U is “toast” and that 30 million units is all Nintendo can achieve in future sales – the company is still hoping to reach its goal of 9 million units by the end of this financial year.
Adding further insult to injury, Pachter claims Nintendo’s home console is just “a DS that’s split into two”. But he didn’t stop there and turned his attention to Nintendo fans saying they should “stop criticising him for his Wii U comments and just buy a Wii U. Because they haven’t.” Let us know what you think of his strong words in the comments below.
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has revealed via Twitter that both console and handheld software sales were the lowest since May 2000. Nintendo of America announced earlier today that the Nintendo 3DS was the best-selling video game platform in North America during May. Sounds as though it was another terrible month for North American video game retailers.
“I can’t/won’t publish any data from the NPD, but found it interesting that software sales for console/handheld were lowest since May 2000″
Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter says that if the Wii U doesn’t gain momentum by the end of the year, third-party publishers will decide to not bring their games to the console. According to Pachter, if the Wii U doesn’t become more popular, it’s possible for Nintendo’s console to be a first-party-only platform. Pachter expects Nintendo to slash the Wii U console’s price by $50 by the end of the year. Pachter’s opinions on Wii U’s third-party situation can be read below:
“In addition, if the Wii U’s popularity does not improve by the end of the year, many third-party publishers may pass on producing games for the console. We note that EA recently announced that it had no Wii U games in development, and it remains a possibility that the publisher will abandon the platform entirely. Should other third parties follow EA’s lead, the Wii U could be relegated to a first party only platform.”
Famed web-analyst Michael Pachter has given Nintendo fans food for thought in his latest Pach-Attack show. This time, Pachter appears less enthusiastic about sharing his opinions, but today he’s brought Nintendo’s decision to skip their annual E3 presentation to the table, and he cuts straight to the bone.
Pachter, answering the question from twitter as to whether Nintendo’s decision to skip the E3 press conference was a good business decision, responds as follows:
“I think it is a crappy decision because you don’t get many opportunities when you’re a console manufacturer to have the entire world focused on games. So it’s the one time a year that you can be certain that everybody cares [...] I think that from just a basic decision it’s an opportunity for Nintendo to really show off a lot of stuff.
“But you asked was it a good business decision and, from your basic economics, it’s a profit deal. If you’re expected revenues from spending money are bigger than the amount you have to spend to generate those revenues, then it’s a good business decision.
“I think that Nintendo gave this a lot of thought – they said we don’t really have anything new to show, [...] we don’t really have any new Wii U games that are going to shine that are playable and, oh by the way, the reason that Fox News, ABC, etc, are all here is to look at the next Xbox and PS4, then we’re just going to look bad next to them.
“I think not doing it, probably, is a good business decision. I just think, as a gamer, and as someone who is interested in the industry, I would prefer to see everybody represented at every show. Nintendo made a business decision, and ultimately, it is probably the right one.”
So, Pachter believes it is a good business decision for Nintendo to avoid an E3 presentation this year, but what do you think? Let us know in the comments below.
Renowned Wedbush research analyst Michael Pachter has admitted he doesn’t understand Japanese companies or their motivation for releasing games. The latest Pach-Attack comes after he defended Nintendo’s software strategy, but in a question submitted about a Final Fantasy VII remake from Square Enix, he appears to have slipped back into his age-old ways. Pachter said: “I don’t think Nintendo is unique in being inscrutable. I don’t get any Japanese developer, I don’t know what motivates them, especially in how they release games into the West. Final Fantasy is just one of those franchises I just don’t get.”
Moving on from Final Fantasy, Pachter answers a question deliberating whether it is a riskier option to become an ‘everyone’ console, or a specific ‘hardcore’ software. Turning a comparison from the Wii’s everyone and non-traditional market to the Wii U’s ‘traditional games market’, Pachter said it was a mistake made by Nintendo.
He continued: “Nintendo had a huge success in expanding into the non-traditional market – that’s 25-year-old women who play Guitar Hero, 45-year-old women who play Wii Fit, 65-year-old women who play bowling – that worked and they sold a lot of consoles, but those people didn’t really embrace other software titles [...] so I think that you can make money if it resonates with everyone but ultimately it causes you to make mistakes like the Wii U.
“Nintendo thought all these same people would line up and play the Wii U [...] and those non-traditional people didn’t embrace it. I think Nintendo is going to be lucky to sell 30-40 million Wii U’s, they might sell 20-25 miliion which makes it more like a GameCube, but we’ll see.”
Famed video game industry analyst Michael Pachter has finally had some good words to say about Nintendo on the latest edition of his show, Pach-Attack. In the latest episode of the show Pachter discusses the HD remake of The Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker as well as the Nintendo eShop. Here’s what Pachter had to say.
PDantas: “Mr.Pachter, do you think Nintendo is expanding their eShop services for countries outside the US anytime soon? I’m in Brazil and I fear I won’t be able to download the new Wind Waker HD when it comes out.”
MP : “Yeah I think so, I think Nintendo is very late to the party with the eShop. But so far what I’ve seen it actually works quite well, you know, I think in typical Nintendo fashion they did it right, they just did it late. So I think it’s their intention that any place you can download their games, they’re happy to sell them to you.”
Marc42: “What do you think of Nintendo re-releasing Wind Waker? No mention of Mario, Metroid etc. Creative troubles?”
MP: “Urm, I think Nintendo is an enigma wrapped up in a question mark. I have no idea what motivates Nintendo to release the games they release. I think you can safely assume that if Nintendo thinks they can make money re-releasing a game, they’re going to re-release the game. I certainly wouldn’t diss them at all for bringing back Wind Waker, and I would not rule out that because today there is no mention of any other game they’re not going to do that. I think that pretty much anything that is Mario or Zelda is under Miyamoto’s control and I think that Miyamoto is given complete freedom to pick and choose what he wants to work on, what he wants his studios to work on. I think that he decided that Wind Waker would just look great in HD. The demos we saw it looks pretty great in HD. It’s a big big franchise and I think they will sell a lot of units. The only constraint to selling units of Wind Waker is the amount of Wii Us out there. So far not very many, but in time there is going to be 10, 15, 25 million and I when there are they are going to get a very high attach rate. That audience is super loyal to the Zelda franchise, of course they’re also loyal to Mario but you’re going to get a new Mario title, probably more of these retro titles later on in the Wii U’s life cycle, but again I’m at a complete loss to explain what motivates Nintendo to do anything, they have their own method, it has worked for them for a long time. I would never ever question their software strategy, I think they do a great job on software, I consistently question their hardware strategy but not software, I think they know what they’re doing.”
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter believes that Nintendo only managed to sell 80,000 Wii U consoles in the United States during the month of February. Pachter says that the original Wii console sold the same amount as its successor during February. Pachter points out that Wii U’s sales were around half of the 165,000 PlayStation 3 units sold last month and were miles behind the Xbox 360, which sold 225,000 units. The official NPD numbers should be coming sometime later this week.
“The Wii sold nearly double our estimate as the Wii U vastly underperformed our expectations, likely due to a relatively thin release slate and an unusual number of returns. It is difficult to envision a turnaround in Wii U hardware sales without a price cut or until more compelling software becomes available, but we think that weekly sales of 20,000 units is likely. We think that the long-term appeal of the console will be severely limited by the perception that the next consoles from Microsoft and Sony will be much more powerful with greater online integration and multimedia functionality.”
Famed Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has spoken out against Nintendo during the latest edition of his Pach-Attack show. Pachter says that Nintendo president Satoru Iwata is a poor CEO who has ultimately done a terrible job at running the company. His opinions came as part of a segment on the show, where he was asked whether or not Nintendo will leave the hardware business.
“Having to? No, never,” Pachter said. “Wanting to? Not while their biggest shareholder is Mr. Yamauchi who I believe is around 70, 71 years old, and not while Mr. Iwata is CEO. I think those two guys are deeply rooted in tradition in the past, in what made Nintendo great. And I think that the Nintendo formula for success for the last 35 years has been manufacture a console, sell it at a profit, and support console sales with proprietary software. And then when your console sells well, collect royalties from third-parties for the privilege of putting their software on the console.”
However, Pachter believes “that model is broken for Nintendo.
“I think Nintendo is no longer able to compete the way they did in the past and sell their consoles at a big profit,” he continues.
“I think that the Wii, when it first launched they were probably making about $100 of profit per unit. I think the DS when it first launched was probably generating about $50 of profit per unit. The 3DS I think is barely making a profit. The Wii U I think is barely making a profit – I’m talking 5 or 10 bucks per unit.”
“But I don’t think they realise that yet,” he adds. “And that’s a business decision, so this is a criticism of Mr. Iwata, not of Reggie [Fils-Aime, President & COO, Nintendo of America]. Reggie and the marketing team, they’re great, they do what they can. You have to… play with the cards that you are dealt. They’re dealt the Wii U, they’re going to do the best they can to market it and the best they can to get you excited about the software. So I love the US marketing guys, I think they’re phenomenal and I have no problem with any of those guys.”
“I think Mr. Iwata’s a pretty poor CEO,” he continues. “I think he’s done a very poor job running the company. I have a neutral rating on Nintendo, but I have to say only because their cash level supports their current share price. It’s a bad company that doesn’t make money.”
“Your question, will they have to exit the console-making business?,” continued Pachter. “The good news is, Nintendo has something around 8 or 9 billion dollars – billion – of cash on their balance sheet. When they lose money, they lose something like a billion dollars. And frankly, I think next year their losses will be smaller. I think if they lose money it’ll be $100m, $200m. They can run for 50 more years and keep losing money and they’re not going to go out of business. So they aren’t forced to do anything.”
“The stock has dropped to cash value so there’s no value in investing in it. The only way anybody is going to make money going forward is if Nintendo suddenly starts making money, and they’re not going to make money on hardware, not at these prices.”
He continued: “If Nintendo’s business is trying to make a profit, once they conclude they aren’t going to make any money on hardware, of course they should exit the hardware business. And if they were to put their software on multiplatform they would probably sell twice as much software. So I think Nintendo, if they were to follow the SEGA route, would be immensely more profitable, but it’s not in their DNA…
“When Yamauchi no longer is a shareholder [and] Iwata is no longer there, maybe, but I’d say they’re gonna keep fumbling around and keep trying to make money in hardware. Don’t think it’s going to work. I’m not particularly optimistic about an investment in Nintendo stock and I am a stock market guy so I’ve been pretty good about stock market investments.
“If you don’t like that answer, Nintendo fans, deal with it.”
Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter delivered a presentation during this year’s South by Southwest (SXSW), which is taking place right now and ends March 17th. During his presentation, partly because he thinks Nintendo’s latest console is ‘too similar’ to current-generation consoles, including the aged Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3, Pacther said that the Wii U is likely to sell a measly 30 to 50 million units in its lifetime. Also, during the same presentation, Pachter said he thinks the PlayStation 4 and the next Xbox will have sold a healthy 85 to 95 million units each, at the end of their courses of being on the market.