Pachter Claims Nintendo Will Stay In Console Business “Until They Fail Completely”

Everyone’s favourite video game analyst Michael Pachter has shared some outspoken views about Nintendo and the company’s future during Pachter Factor. If you don’t really want to watch the video, the gist of the conversation revolves around whether it would be “financially smarter” for Nintendo to go third party, go full-time on mobile, or continue creating their own hardware. Well, as we already know they plan to continue making their own hardware as the Nintendo NX is due to be revealed this year. He concluded by saying that Nintendo will continue making hardware “until they fail completely.”

“I think it really depends on what people expect software sales to be on the NX. You’re asking me to compare NX to a third-party strategy. If the NX is as successful as the Wii U, it makes more sense for Nintendo to go third-party. If the NX is as successful as the Wii, then it doesn’t make sense.

“Nintendo sold about half of all software ever put out there for the Wii. There were literally 100 million Wiis, probably a software catch rate around 8, so Nintendo literally sold something like 400 million pieces of software for the Wii. That’s a very profitable business. If they have that success with the NX, of course they should do that.”

“If they go third-party, you’re talking about an install base around 55 million consoles. I think ultimately you will get an install base of 200 million PlayStation 4 and Xbox One, Nintendo will need a 20 percent share on those platforms to replicate the success it had with Wii. That’s possible, but it’s not likely.

“I do think once Nintendo decides one way or another, that will drive future purchase decisions from consumers. If Nintendo says ‘we’re going third-party all the time,’ a lot of Nintendo fanboys will buy an Xbox One or PS4 and I actually think Sony would do some interesting things with Nintendo. Because I think, both being Japanese companies, there’s just a lot of opportunities for those two to work together.

“I actually think you would see some really cool things on PS4. But, we’re speculating for speculation’s sake. I don’t think that’s going to happen, and I’m answering the question because you asked it.

“My bias is Nintendo is going to stay in the console business until they fail completely, and I don’t even think they consider the Wii U a failure. Failing completely means no one buys the console at all.

“Since we don’t know what the NX is, it’s kinda hard to make a forecast on what the sales levels will be. My guess is, it will sell more units than the Wii U. So, better than the Wii U, and that’s enough to keep Nintendo continuing to stay in the console business and as a first-party.”

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Pachter Doesn’t Believe Nintendo NX Is Coming In 2016

Everyone’s favourite video game analyst Michael Pachter has made yet another prediction. This time around Pachter isn’t convinced that the NX platform from Nintendo will be released in 2016. The reason he says this is because he is adamant that his contacts would have informed him if they had received a development kit. No one has mentioned it to him so he’s of the opinion that it’s probably going to be a 2017 launch.

“If any western developer has a dev kit, who knows me, I think they would have told me by now.”

“They wouldn’t tell me when the launch date was or what they’re working on, they’d just say ‘we have a dev kit’.

“I think the lack of dev kits that have been, as as I’m aware, suggests very little to know software support from third parties and if you don’t have software how are you going to launch a console?

“Nintendo’ history has been to announce a console around E3 and launch a year-and-a-half later. We didn’t get an announcement at this year’s E3.”

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Pachter Believes It’s Unlikely The Nintendo NX Will Launch 2016

Everyone’s favourite video game analyst Michael Pachter is back predicting and this time he’s discussing the Nintendo NX. Pachter is of the firm opinion that it is unlikely that Nintendo will launch its next platform the NX next year. While all signs seem to point towards a late 2016 launch Pachter says “I’d say 20 percent chance it comes out in 2016 in the US, 80 percent chance it comes out in 2017.” Guess we shall just have to wait and see!

“I can talk about Nintendo’s past practice, and use that as a predictor of the future. But, I don’t know. Nintendo’s past practice has been to announce their next generation consoles at E3, and to release them 18 months later. And they typically will have a prototype and a couple of game markups… where you can play something.

“But they take about 18 months, and last I checked we don’t have 18 months until the end of 2016. So, it is less likely that something is coming out in 2016. But, the rumours are that there are NX dev kits out there. We don’t know how long they have been out there, but if the rumour has leaked they have probably been out a couple of months. It is really slightly possible that developers can make something for NX console launch in fall 2016, and do a quality product in 13 – 15 months. Slightly possible.”

“The more the NX looks like a PS4 or Xbox One, the more likely it is that it’s coming out in 2016. The less it looks like a PS4 or Xbox One, the less likely. If it’s a different language, it requires developers to tweak a lot of things from Madden, FIFA, Call of Duty or Grand Theft Auto in order to get it ready for NX, 13 months is probably not enough time and it’s probably a 2017 launch.

“So again, not knowing what the NX is, I don’t know when it’s coming out. I’d say 20 percent chance it comes out in 2016 in the US, 80 percent chance it comes out in 2017. If you don’t see it before E3, there’s a zero percent chance it’s coming out in 2016.”

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Pachter Gives The Nintendo NX A 40% Chance At Failing

Everyone’s favourite video game analyst Michael Pachter has once again spoken about the forthcoming NX platform from Nintendo. While he only knows as much as we do he says that the console has a 40% chance of failure and a positive 60% chance of success. Pachter believes that the platform will a mobile convergence device. That means it will be a hybrid between a home console and handheld.

Pachter sees the system’s outlook for profit as fairly positive. Overall, he estimates a 40 percent odd for failure and a 60 percent odd for success. While NX is being primed to launch late in a hardware cycle, he still says it could sell as many as 30 million units. To put that number into perspective, PS4 just passed the 30 million sales milestone since its release two years ago.

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Thanks, Paidenthusiast


Pachter Says The Nintendo NX May Reach 30 Million Install Base

Famed video industry analysts Michael Pachter has once again shared his predictions about the forthcoming Nintendo NX. It’s not all doom and gloom as Pachter believes that the device could eventually have an install base of 30 million. He has also shook off the notion that the company would go third-party, well for the short term anyway. Here’s what he had to say on SIFTD.

“I would say modest potential that it bombs. I would give them a 60 percent chance of success, I think they are smart people, I think they have learned a lot from what they did wrong with the Wii U. Are they going to get the Wii magic back? Probably not. But if they go back to a conventional-like console, their only problem they have now is they are very late in the cycle so they’re not going to sell that many. Could they sell 30 million? Sure. They could sell enough to make a difference and make a profit. They’re not getting out of the handheld business until the sales drop to zero – three or four million a year. And that is probably five, seven or eight years out. So no, they’re not going to get out of hardware.”

Thanks, Paidenthusiast

Pachter Claims Nintendo NX “Is Doomed” Without Third Party Support

Outspoken video game industry analyst Michael Pachter believes that Nintendo’s upcoming NX platform is “doomed before it even launches” without strong third-party support. We heard earlier this year that Nintendo said that they have received “joint initiatives” from third-party developers during E3 2015. So it’s clearly something they are working out. Here’s what Pachter had to say.

“If Nintendo gets the same level of support for NX that it got for the Wii U, it’s doomed before it launches. That’s much, much more important than the price. If they get third-party support, if they make it in such a way that everyone can port every game over and the incremental cost to make if for Xbox One, PS4 and NX is $1-2 million, every game will be there. If it’s a whole different language, or requires a whole different programming scheme, or requires something to do with the GamePad where you’ve got the controller different the way Wii U works, it’s doomed. No one’s going to support it.

I think the publishers are leery of Nintendo, the third-party publishers. I think they got burned by the Wii, they were never good on the Wii, they got burned by the Wii U – especially Ubisoft. So, I think they are going to be very, very cautious. The more this thing looks like a PS4 or Xbox One I think the better it does, and, ultimately, the only people who are going to buy it are people that don’t have a PS4 or Xbox One. Or, people who have a PS4 or Xbox One, and want to play Nintendo games.

There are a lot of the latter and by the time NX comes out – assuming it comes out in 2016 – the PS4 and Xbox One will be barely halfway through saturating their potential install base. So, perhaps the NX will capture a third of that remaining market, because if you don’t have either a PS4 or Xbox One and you can play everything on PS4 or Xbox One except first-party titles, what are you giving up? You get all Nintendo first-party, and you’re giving up a handful of Microsoft and Sony first-party. So, it’s going to be back to close to a level playing field, but it really depends on third-party support.

Don’t know what they are going to do, don’t know when the NX will come, [don’t] really know what Nintendo’s got planned – we don’t know many details. I am sure we are going to see something on the NX next year, [but] I’m not sure when it’s launching. When I hear more, I reserve the right to change my mind about exactly what things are going to do and how well they’ll sell.”

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Thanks, MasterPikachu6 for the tip.

Pachter Believes The Nintendo NX Will Cost Around $299

Everyone’s favourite video game analyst Michael Pachter has discussed the upcoming Nintendo NX platform in his latest video. During his segment he suggested that the console wouldn’t be priced higher than the PlayStation 4 or Xbox One. If it was priced higher than both it wouldn’t really sell many units, other than to hardcore Nintendo fans. Pachter also says that by the time the platform is out the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One will have substantial user bases so Nintendo needs to be competitive in its pricing. He also said that selling Wii U for $349 was a mistake that Nintendo will not repeat with the NX.

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