Outspoken video game industry analyst Michael Pachter believes that Nintendo’s upcoming NX platform is “doomed before it even launches” without strong third-party support. We heard earlier this year that Nintendo said that they have received “joint initiatives” from third-party developers during E3 2015. So it’s clearly something they are working out. Here’s what Pachter had to say.
“If Nintendo gets the same level of support for NX that it got for the Wii U, it’s doomed before it launches. That’s much, much more important than the price. If they get third-party support, if they make it in such a way that everyone can port every game over and the incremental cost to make if for Xbox One, PS4 and NX is $1-2 million, every game will be there. If it’s a whole different language, or requires a whole different programming scheme, or requires something to do with the GamePad where you’ve got the controller different the way Wii U works, it’s doomed. No one’s going to support it.
I think the publishers are leery of Nintendo, the third-party publishers. I think they got burned by the Wii, they were never good on the Wii, they got burned by the Wii U – especially Ubisoft. So, I think they are going to be very, very cautious. The more this thing looks like a PS4 or Xbox One I think the better it does, and, ultimately, the only people who are going to buy it are people that don’t have a PS4 or Xbox One. Or, people who have a PS4 or Xbox One, and want to play Nintendo games.
There are a lot of the latter and by the time NX comes out – assuming it comes out in 2016 – the PS4 and Xbox One will be barely halfway through saturating their potential install base. So, perhaps the NX will capture a third of that remaining market, because if you don’t have either a PS4 or Xbox One and you can play everything on PS4 or Xbox One except first-party titles, what are you giving up? You get all Nintendo first-party, and you’re giving up a handful of Microsoft and Sony first-party. So, it’s going to be back to close to a level playing field, but it really depends on third-party support.
Don’t know what they are going to do, don’t know when the NX will come, [don’t] really know what Nintendo’s got planned – we don’t know many details. I am sure we are going to see something on the NX next year, [but] I’m not sure when it’s launching. When I hear more, I reserve the right to change my mind about exactly what things are going to do and how well they’ll sell.”
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Thanks, MasterPikachu6 for the tip.