Famed Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter has responded to the news that Watch Dogs has been delayed until spring 2014. Pachter says that Ubisoft were genuinely worried that Grand Theft Auto V, Call of Duty: Ghosts and Battlefield 4 would eat into sales of the company’s Watch Dogs. Pachter concluded by saying that Ubisoft has given its developers the opportunity to fully maximise the game’s sales potential and build a lasting franchise that the company could use to offset any future weakness for its established key franchises.
We believe that management was also concerned about the strong competition for wallet share Watch Dogs faced at the holidays from Grand Theft Auto V, Battlefield 4, and a new Call of Duty, among others.”
“Grand Theft Auto V is only adding to industry uncertainty, as while it is bringing many previously-disconnected gamers back to the market, it also has achieved record-breaking sales that have tapped a certain percentage of gamer holiday spending months ahead of time. Given next-gen uncertainty and this very strong slate of competitors, we believe the two aforementioned delays were the right decision.”
“By releasing Watch Dogs in Q1:15, Ubisoft has given its developers the opportunity to fully maximize the game’s sales potential in FY:15 and build a lasting franchise that the company could use to offset any future weakness for its established key franchises (displayed most recently by the disappointing Tom Clancy’s Splinter Cell: Blacklist).
“We are somewhat concerned about competition in Ubisoft’s Q1, however, with games like EA’s Titanfall, Activision’s Destiny and Microsoft’s Halo 5 all targeting the same launch window. We don’t think it is important that Watch Dogs (or any of the other three games) launches in Q1, and we expect all of the game publishers to behave rationally when setting release dates to avoid competition wherever possible.”
Outspoken Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter believes that the recently announced Nintendo 2DS is actually a great idea and should go someway to bolstering Nintendo 3DS sales this holiday season. The new device is lighter than a Nintendo 3DS XL, but features worse battery life, mono speakers, and screens the size of the original Nintendo 3DS. The handheld will be out on October 12th in North America.
“The 2DS is a great idea, should boost sales meaningfully. I think a lot of people don’t care about the 3D feature, this gives them a choice.”
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter was asked whether or not Sony and Nintendo will continue in the portable market which is being dominated by smartphones and tablets. Pachter says that he believes Sony will exit due to poor hardware sales for PlayStation Vita, but he believes Nintendo will stay in the handheld market as they dominate the dedicated handheld space and create fantastic first party software.
“There will certainly be another handheld from Nintendo. That’s Nintendo’s bread and butter, that is their business, they dominate.”
“The 3DS is doing fine, and I would guess that 3DS sales are going to be about 15 million this year globally. They were about 15 million last year, and that compares to 30 million for DS. But they make plenty of money at 15 million units, as long as they can do that they’ll upgrade, redesign, and there’ll be more.”
“There’s always going to be demand for handheld gaming, it’s something a lot of people really like. Nintendo makes great handheld first-party software. I think the bigger problem is that third-parties are pretty much giving up on handheld, it’s just not something that makes sense for most of them and Nintendo dominates.”
“You’re going to see probably decent sales when you get the next Pokemon, the next Animal Crossing, the next Zelda game on handheld, and the thing that Nintendo has going for them is that you can’t play those games anywhere other than on their platforms.”
Controversial Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter believes that Nintendo is currently in a world of trouble. Pachter cites the lack of third-party support for the company’s latest home console, coupled with the looming release of the PlayStation 4 and Xbox One, as a problem that Nintendo doesn’t seem able to fix. Pachter genuinely questions why anyone would choose to buy a Wii U at this point in time.
“The publishers are pretty excited to support the Xbox One and the PS4 – they really didn’t say anything about the Wii U. And we know EA has no games in development for Wii U. If Activision pulls support; if you see Ubisoft , you see Take-Two pull support, the Wii U is a Nintendo-only gaming device which is what they were back with the Nintendo Entertainment System in 1985. They’re not going to sell a lot of consoles if they don’t have games like FIFA and Battlefield and Call of Duty and Grand Theft Auto. Due to that, Pachter asks a simple rhetorical question: “Why would anybody buy a Wii U?”
Controversial Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter says if the Wii U continues to be neglected by third party publishers and developers by the holiday season then ‘stick a fork in it’. Pachter says that the majority of Wii U owners will be unhappy about missing out on FIFA and Call of Duty if the console isn’t supported this holiday season and they will subsequently purchase a second console, such as PlayStation 4 or Microsoft’s Xbox One.
“There are about 30 million Nintendo fans who will buy the console. Unfortunately 90% of them will be unhappy about missing out on 3rd parties such as FIFA or Call of Duty if the platform isn’t supported after the holidays. They will get a 2nd console as a result of that. In order for Nintendo to sell more than those 30 million fans they need 3rd party support. Otherwise stick a fork in them.”
Famed video game industry analyst Michael Pachter has finally had some good words to say about Nintendo on the latest edition of his show, Pach-Attack. In the latest episode of the show Pachter discusses the HD remake of The Legend of Zelda: Wind Waker as well as the Nintendo eShop. Here’s what Pachter had to say.
PDantas: “Mr.Pachter, do you think Nintendo is expanding their eShop services for countries outside the US anytime soon? I’m in Brazil and I fear I won’t be able to download the new Wind Waker HD when it comes out.”
MP : “Yeah I think so, I think Nintendo is very late to the party with the eShop. But so far what I’ve seen it actually works quite well, you know, I think in typical Nintendo fashion they did it right, they just did it late. So I think it’s their intention that any place you can download their games, they’re happy to sell them to you.”
Marc42: “What do you think of Nintendo re-releasing Wind Waker? No mention of Mario, Metroid etc. Creative troubles?”
MP: “Urm, I think Nintendo is an enigma wrapped up in a question mark. I have no idea what motivates Nintendo to release the games they release. I think you can safely assume that if Nintendo thinks they can make money re-releasing a game, they’re going to re-release the game. I certainly wouldn’t diss them at all for bringing back Wind Waker, and I would not rule out that because today there is no mention of any other game they’re not going to do that. I think that pretty much anything that is Mario or Zelda is under Miyamoto’s control and I think that Miyamoto is given complete freedom to pick and choose what he wants to work on, what he wants his studios to work on. I think that he decided that Wind Waker would just look great in HD. The demos we saw it looks pretty great in HD. It’s a big big franchise and I think they will sell a lot of units. The only constraint to selling units of Wind Waker is the amount of Wii Us out there. So far not very many, but in time there is going to be 10, 15, 25 million and I when there are they are going to get a very high attach rate. That audience is super loyal to the Zelda franchise, of course they’re also loyal to Mario but you’re going to get a new Mario title, probably more of these retro titles later on in the Wii U’s life cycle, but again I’m at a complete loss to explain what motivates Nintendo to do anything, they have their own method, it has worked for them for a long time. I would never ever question their software strategy, I think they do a great job on software, I consistently question their hardware strategy but not software, I think they know what they’re doing.”
Famed Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has attacked the handheld market in the latest edition of his show, Pach-Attack. Pachter admits that Nintendo owns the handheld market and that’s one of the reasons why Microsoft hasn’t released a handheld gaming device. Pachter also says that while the PlayStation Vita is a great piece of hardware he believes that the device is a bit of a joke as third-party developers just aren’t supporting the system.
“The reason is that the handheld market sucks, and to the extend there is a handheld market and Nintendo owns it.”
“The Vita is a joke. It’s a wonderful, wonderful, wonderful piece of hardware and nobody owns one. The reason nobody owns one is It’s too good, It does too much. Developers aren’t making games for it because the market is too small.”
“You’re not going to get a big install base with the Vita at this price, and even though It’s a really slick device, if there is not a lot of people who own it, you’re not going to get a lot of sotfware. And It’s a vicious cycle, if you don’t have software, you’re not going to buy the Vita. If you don’t have Vitas, you’re not going to get software. So, the Vita sucks, Sony has no prayer of making money on the Vita.”
“The handheld market is not as big as It used to be. With the 3DS I think Nintendo is probably going to continue to do ok, 15 million a year, that’s a nice market for handhelds. With the Vita on the market, they (Sony) are going to make 5 million a year, why do we need a third (handheld)? All that would happened is that demand of 20 million handhelds will get split three ways instead of two. Nobody makes money selling five millions units a year.”
Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter believes that Nintendo only managed to sell 80,000 Wii U consoles in the United States during the month of February. Pachter says that the original Wii console sold the same amount as its successor during February. Pachter points out that Wii U’s sales were around half of the 165,000 PlayStation 3 units sold last month and were miles behind the Xbox 360, which sold 225,000 units. The official NPD numbers should be coming sometime later this week.
“The Wii sold nearly double our estimate as the Wii U vastly underperformed our expectations, likely due to a relatively thin release slate and an unusual number of returns. It is difficult to envision a turnaround in Wii U hardware sales without a price cut or until more compelling software becomes available, but we think that weekly sales of 20,000 units is likely. We think that the long-term appeal of the console will be severely limited by the perception that the next consoles from Microsoft and Sony will be much more powerful with greater online integration and multimedia functionality.”
Famed industry analyst Michael Pachter believes that the Wii U is a mistake that Nintendo can’t recover from. Pachter says that the gameplay on Wii U just isn’t unique enough from other current generation consoles, and its predecessor, the Wii. He went on to say that he thinks Nintendo has made an extremely costly mistake with Wii U. He also said that the handheld division just can’t cope against the growing rise of smartphones and tablet devices in the home.
“I think they misfired on the Wii U. It’s just not that different from the other two [existing] consoles, and the gameplay isn’t as unique as the Wii. They made a mistake, it’s something they probably can’t recover from.”
“I think they have made a costly mistake. And their handheld business can’t save them in the face of cannibalization from smartphones and tablets.”
Famed Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter has commented on Nintendo’s third quarter financial results and says that Nintendo cutting the Wii U forecast is further evidence that Wii U doesn’t capture the imagination of the Wii. Pachter went on to say that the only thing that will get the Wii U moving off store shelves is a much needed price cut. Here’s what he had to say.
“I always thought Nintendo’s Wii U software forecast made no sense.”
“They initially guided 24 million, are taking that down to 16 million, which is a 4:1 software attach rate. That’s reasonable, especially given that the installed base is 3 million hardware units now and the guidance implies they need to ship only 4.31 million more software units.”
“The hardware guidance is disappointing, and there isn’t really anything that will get hardware moving other than a price cut. I think they got it wrong with this console, it just doesn’t capture the imagination the way that the Wii did.”
“The Wii U is not going to be very competitive if Sony and Microsoft launch comparable consoles at comparable prices. The early weakness will cause many third party publishers to re-think support for the Wii U, and we might not see much support at holiday 2013.”