According to a new report from International Data Corporation (IDC), Nintendo should have sold over 50 million Wii U consoles by 2016. IDC noted that Nintendo will eventually “find an audience” with with its new console, the Wii U.
How the heck (and why) do people predict things like this? Is Nintendo psychics? NOBODY knows if that many consoles will sell. Predicting things like this is as bad as when people predict the end of the world will happen on a certain date, and then it doesn’t.
Without predictions like this companies would have a hard time getting any backing or pleasing shareholders which ultimately hold all the cards and keep the board in jobs. The people with the cash want to know long term how their investments will likely turn out. Also it is absolutely nothing like predicting the end of the world, done by looking in ancient books or calendars which have no relevance, they’re done by forecasting by means of current market analysis, looking at how big their install base is and roughly how big they can expand it to, seeing how long it’s taken the competition to sell that many, taking into account the predicted change in national inflation and currency fluctuation etc…
Dear Nintendo fan.
DON’T LIKE THINGS I DON’T LIKE!!!11!!
My mum got me this Xbox so now I have to put the others down so I can feel superior to you!
Regards
Mr. Tony Roll
We do have a lot of fanboys here with some conversations going like this:
Fanboy: OMG OMG X is 1337!!1!!!111 ur so dumb u dum ugy faggottard fanboy!!11!
Fan of another medium: Actually, X has an extremely cliched plot and dull, invincible protagonists. Really, how many times in the history of games has-
Fanboy: OMG UR SCH A-
*Fanboy drops several dozen f-bombs on Fan-of-another-medumland. This continues until Fanboy vomits on himself in pure, unadulterated rage.*
Mostly It is two fanboys each with bad logic but It has been getting better.
While looking at the sony blog I did find this witch I find funny
Re: nintendo fanboy attack
“Envy? Probably…our game is better.But hey,Nintendrones are too mind-closed to admit that PASBR is better.
We stealed Wii mote? The move is better.
We stealed Wii Sports? Sports Champion is WAY better
That’s what I think of Nintendo’s fanboys.”
Trolls are only here because we are so easy to troll many a time I have put a sarcastic or Ironic comment only to be met with rage.
Well after the incredible achievements of the DS, Wii and now 3DS, they don’t really need to sell that much for the company to be considered successful at this time.
Low? Explain please, cause 50 million in 3 years is Fucking good dude. Compare it with the ps360 70mil in 6 a 7 years; if Nintendo gonna reach this on 2016 it will be Fucking awsome! !
Either you didn’t read the comment, or you clearly haven’t seen the astronomical sales figures for the Wii.
Either way, it’s hard to envisage the Wii U achieving the sales figures of the original Wii. That thing was a huge revolution back then. Not saying the U isn’t presenting a new way to play, but it’s not going to shake up the industry in the way Nintendo did in 2006. It’ll still be a brilliant console in its own right, and that’s more than enough for me.
50 million isn’t farfetched. look at its predecessor the wii for fuck’s sake. yeah, nintendo still has it. they always find their place, more importantly, in the gaming industry. they always have been and will be a successful gaming company till the end.
By the time Unity delievers the Unity 4 Engine on indie titles, Retro Studios presenting their graphics engine on their next Nintendo title, and third party publishers releasing a Wii U game powered by Unreal Engine 4 (it’s scalable on the U), there’s good possibility the Wii U will sell about 50 million units (mostly the Deluxe [Premium outside North America] sets).
I guess taking in these predictions, it will sell alot better than both N64 and Gamecube.
So in other words, Nintendo isn’t going anywhere in the following 6 years.
Lulz… IDC are a joke. Everything gaming related they’ve predicted or claimed has been wrong.
Like how they’re also claiming today that the PS3 has shipped 77million to December, when it was only at 70million in early November. It’s just not possible.
I know this is going to sound crazy, but I don’t agree with this sales prediction for the Wii U. Here are my predictions for the entire generation of Wii U/Nintendo 3DS systems, and I urge you all to read them, as they are down to a year-by-year basis:
—–
DISCLAIMER: Before my yearly predictions of this generation to the next one, I want to make a point of why the Wii U and the Nintendo 3DS will be the longest generation of systems Nintendo has ever created.
This should be obvious for the Wii U—it is Nintendo’s first HD console, so there are a countless number of franchises that they can create and utilize the Wii U GamePad to make highly innovative use of the new tech. While Nintendo will be focusing on major titles for the Wii U in its first years (see predictions below), we should be seeing many new franchises get their start on the Wii U. However, do not expect many of Nintendo’s more obscure franchises (i.e. Battletoads or Mach Rider) get a place in the spotlight just yet (more on that below as well).
For the Nintendo 3DS, this would be harder for people to believe, but let me explain why the Nintendo 3DS will have the longest handheld generation. Ever since the Nintendo 3DS first launched, third-party support that we haven’t ever seen before on a Nintendo portable system has allowed the handheld’s library to become more robust than previous handheld systems already (and it is two months shy of being 2-years-old). However, the system has so much potential going for it, as many of Nintendo’s franchises could use a 3D facelift and this platform could be home to both new Nintendo titles in existing franchises, the revival of long-forgotten Nintendo franchises, AND remakes of older Nintendo games in 3D. More on these predictions down below.
—–
Okay, let’s get to the good stuff. These predictions will be separated into comments to make them easier to read year-by-year. There’s a lot:
IN 2013:
Wii U – Sales (by end of year): 15-25 Million Units Sold
– Shortly into the year, two months before E3, Nintendo will host a Nintendo Direct in April to announce the price cut for the Wii U Basic and Deluxe systems. In total, the price will be slashed to $239.99 and $279.99, respectively. Both will be bundled with Nintendo Land.
– At E3, Super Mario U (2013), The Legend of Zelda: Majora’s Mask HD (2013), Super Smash Bros. U (2014), Metroid (2014), Mario Kart U (2013) unveiled. A new, never-before-seen Nintendo IP will be showcased for 2013, exclusive to the Wii U Nintendo eShop. There will be third-party exclusives announced for the Wii U—among these, Beyond Good & Evil 2, Sonic Adventure 3, and a new Metal Gear Solid, all published by Nintendo.
– After E3, Virtual Console games will come to the Wii U, including only GameCube and Dreamcast libraries at the start, but later extending into older games (more details in other yearly predictions). All titles will be enhanced ports of the original games, fitted for the 1080p resolution of the Wii U, unlike the Wii and Nintendo 3DS’ Virtual Console games that upscale VC games for them respectively. The Wii’s Virtual Console library will not be brought over to the Wii U, but it will remain accessible under the Wii Shop Channel in Wii Mode. These purchases will be charged for everyone, including those who have already bought the games on the Wii’s shop.
– Before the holidays, Mario U and Mario Kart U will be released. Majora’s Mask will release in Summer 2013, Bayonetta 2 will come out near Halloween, and a Pokemon app will be created for a new game coming in 2014 (details will be announced in an October Nintendo Direct following up the release of Pokemon X and Y).
– Holiday sales will see a huge surge across all of the United States and Japan.
Nintendo 3DS – Sales (by end of year): 45-50 Million Units Sold
– At E3, Donkey Kong Land Returns (2013), Star Fox 2 (2014), New Legend of Zelda (2013), and Kirby’s Pop Up Pannick (2013), and a new F-Zero game (2013) will be announced.
– Shortly afterwards, SNES and GEN games will start coming to the 3DS Virtual Console. 3D Classics: Super Metroid will be announced before Metroid U’s launch, a game that will take place prior to the events of Fusion.
– Nintendo 3DS and Nintendo 3DS XL will receive a price cut along with release of Pokemon X and Y, making both $149.99 and $179.99, respectively. Blue XL will come with Pokemon X and Red will come with Pokemon Y. A White and Pink 3DS XL will make its way to the states before the holidays officially.
Wii U – Sales (by end of year): 45-50 Million Units Sold
– The Wii U will find its audience—a mix of core Nintendo fans and casual gamers, but as a first, Nintendo will see a large surge in software sales because the casual gamers will begin taking to the Nintendo eShop, which will become far more robust to the likes of the App Store on iOS.
– Early into the year, a new Wii U console model will be announced for release in the summer, available in only two colors on release. The new console will feature a matte finish and be released alongside a new matte, enchanced version of the GamePad that boasts a better battery life (6 to 8 Hours) and a slightly larger screen (6.8 inches diagonally).
– At E3, Miyamoto will announce his departure from head of Nintendo EAD, along with more new projects he is working on for the future of the Wii U—Tezuka will claim his position.
– More on Super Smash Bros. U (2014) and Metroid U (2014) will be shown. The next Legend of Zelda game for Wii U will be announced. Nintendo will mostly be showing off their new IPs as the focus of this E3 on the Wii U, but third-party showings will include an exclusive, new Castlevania game that is not derived from the Lords of Shadow series, Mega Man reboot, Phantasy Star Online 2, Monster Hunter 4 HD, Final Fantasy XVI, and Resident Evil reboot all coming exclusively to the Wii U—published by Nintendo.
– An update for the Wii U will be shown off partially to display the new changes made to the OS, which include custom theme packs available from the Nintendo eShop (same for 3DS+), a “library/bookshelf” designed folders that will be accessible from the Wii U Menu, allowing downloaded games to be easily organized (same for 3DS+). These folders will only be created when users download certain types of titles (i.e. Virtual Console games downloaded will automatically create a Virtual Console folder and appear inside of that folder on the Wii U Menu), and a new Mii update will allow for the Wii U will allow Miis to start collecting hats from games. This will serve as the Wii U and Nintendo 3DS+’s achievement system—allowing for more customization options that can be unlocked through your favorite games or by finding hidden hats scattered across the Wii U and Nintendo 3DS+ OS. While this will be available on the Nintendo 3DS+, the Nintendo 3DS/Nintendo 3DS XL will not feature this functionality for obvious reasons (dividing the fanbase once again).
Nintendo 3DS – Sales (by end of year): 60-70 Million Units Sold
– At E3, a new model for the Nintendo 3DS will be shown off. Let’s call it Nintendo 3DS+ for reference. 3DS+ will feature the same size screens as the XL, matte finish, an updated form factor, a wider-autostereoscopic 3D display (not the screen itself, but the 3D’s projection instead) that will allow for better viewing angles while in 3D Mode, and a much longer battery life (7 to 10 hours).
– This new system will have a better processor in order for it to fully handle Miiverse, the new-and-updated Nintendo eShop, and a better Internet Browser, among other functionality. It is best to think of the system as a portable Wii U in terms of OS design, minus certain features unique to the Wii U (such as HD and higher res than 240p, which will still be the resolution of the 3DS+ display). The 3DS+ will NOT feature a second Circle Pad or extra triggers. Nintendo will state this is to prevent dividing the audience of gamers.
– Miiverse for Nintendo 3DS systems is exclusive to Nintendo 3DS games solely. Can be accessed by all Nintendo 3DS systems, but StreetPass Mii Plaza will be largely updated and work in a similar vein as the WaraWara Plaza for the Nintendo 3DS+ (more details below), and only the Nintendo 3DS+ will feature suspended play for Miiverse, the new Nintendo eShop, new Internet Browser, Nintendo 3DS Camera, and Nintendo 3DS Chat functionality.
– The new Internet Browser is as fast as the Wii U’s and uses a slightly similar design. It is compatible with HTML5 and will work with YouTube.
– Update will include NNID functionality for Miiverse and Nintendo eShop. Friends can be easily made through Miiverse, but Friend Codes will not be replaced because replacing that system would divide the fanbase.
– A new service for the Nintendo 3DS will be shown off for streaming providers (to the likes of Nintendo TVii), and will be available on the Nintendo 3DS+ launch (also accessible via suspended play). It will not include cable or satellite functionality due to the portability of the system, but it will work with streaming providers like Netflix, Hulu Plus, and Amazon Instant Video from launch.
– There will be a weak lineup of games shown off, including Star Fox 2, which will be pushed to a November release from the original Q2 scheduled release, as well as Super Mario 3D Land 2, Wave Race 3D, and a new 2D Metroid game announcement. The rest will be third-party multi-platform titles. The weak lineup will be over-turned, however, by Nintendo’s digital, first-party offerings available on the Nintendo eShop—with the update to the shop coming out with plenty of newly available download versions of previously retail-only games to catch up with the Wii U’s Nintendo eShop.
– AR Games/Face Raiders will no longer be present on the new OS for the Nintendo 3DS+.
– Mii Maker and StreetPass Mii Plaza will receive an update for all of the Nintendo 3DS systems that will allow users to customize their Mii’s hats in Mii Maker (only for the Personal User of the device, much like the Wii U’s version of Mii Maker). These hats will replace those worn while in StreetPass Mii Plaza, and the hats worn will now show in games featuring Mii functionality via a quick update for each of those games separately (like Mario Kart). This update to StreetPass Mii Plaza will maintain hats previously earned on other Nintendo 3DS systems and allow users to access those hats through the Mii Maker instead, with Puzzle Swap and Find Mii progress being kept in-check. Nintendo 3DS and 3DS XL owners can still tag 3DS+ owners with StreetPass, but will not see 3DS+ users’ Miis wearing any hats other than a 3DS+ hat.
On normal Nintendo 3DS systems (3DS/3DS XL) that are not compatible with this exclusive 3DS+ feature, games will not display hats on other users’ Miis, but the Nintendo 3DS Friend List and other areas will function and show (after an update) what type of system the user is playing on.
Another huge update for the Wii U and Nintendo 3DS+ (not Nintendo 3DS) is that the Friend List will be integrated into Miiverse in its entirety. Users can easily create parties and games with friends through Miiverse, join other friends’ online games, and view their entire friend list through Miiverse. This will allow for some much needed streamlined connectivity.
PC/Other Devices:
– Miiverse and Nintendo eShop websites/apps will become fully accessible.
– Purchases can be made for both the Wii U and Nintendo 3DS by linking your NNID to these services, with the downloads/installs only taking place when either system is powered on that is linked to your NNID.
– Miiverse will be utilized for both Wii U and Nintendo 3DS games on these devices, blending together both Friend Lists on these separate systems together into one as well. WaraWara Plaza will not be accessible on these devices.
The Wii U and Nintendo 3DS will continue to grow with their audiences. Wii U and Nintendo 3DS will continue to come together with their wireless features in ways we have never seen before in previous Nintendo generations.
Together, both will receive the most robust and enriching experiences ever seen on Nintendo devices.
With the revolutionary Nintendo 3DS+ model, Miiverse and the Nintendo eShop will become much stronger platforms that are used in common conversation everyday to the likes of Twitter/Facebook and the App Store/Steam, respectively. This new business model for Nintendo will allow them to maintain the console/handheld presence of the Wii U and Nintendo 3DS generation all the way into the start of a new decade, 2020, with a strong array of first-and-third party support for each year. On years where there is little first-party support, third-parties will continue pushing their games to both consoles either with temporary or permanent exclusivity. A small number of games will be multi-platform, with most being exclusives to Nintendo platforms this next generation of gaming.
Here’s the catch—
While the Nintendo 3DS’ new model will be announced in Early 2018, the new system is projected to release before the holiday season of the same year. This will be in line with the Nintendo DS to Nintendo 3DS generation in some regard, with a slightly longer generation for the Nintendo 3DS due to the high amount of appeal the Nintendo 3DS+ will garner for itself when it comes out. The Nintentdo 3DS+ will most likely be the last version of the Nintendo 3DS in the family of systems (it is possible that when it comes out, it may even replace both of the previous models while the previous ones become discontinued). Much like the DSi, I won’t be surprised to see this system have a small and large version made to the likes of the Nintendo 3DS and XL size factors, albeit with larger screens on both models.
End of Generation Sales Projection: Over 150 Million Units Sold
End of Lifetime Sales Projection: Over 200 Million Units Sold
The Wii U is scheduled to continue on until 2020, with an Early 2020 announcement, and a mid-2020 conference, it is expected Nintendo will release the next console successor in Late 2020, though that may extend into 2021. Before this time, it is expected that Nintendo will release something in the vein of an Expansion Pak from the N64 for Wii U games, connecting via USB, with its own exclusive games to make use of it (with one Nintendo game—most likely Metroid, Zelda, or Donkey Kong—coming bundled with it). This could allow it to have even better looking games with increased GPU performance, as well as a better way to handle these exclusive games in general. On top of the already mentioned second rendition of matte controllers for the Wii U (Wii Remotes and Nunchucks included), up to three GamePad models will be made in line with this. The last GamePad model is expected to have an LED touch-screen that is more responsive and looks far better, boasting a near-to 7.5 inch screen, matte design, huge battery life, and larger wireless range from the console.
Nintendo will find very little reason to continue with the five-to-six year model with their next home console launch because it is important for them to continue innovating to be important in this modern-day society. The Wii U will be able to continue with its innovation through the Wii U GamePad and other features all throughout its life, unlike the Wii’s limited success, because it utilizes both the Wii U GamePad and Wii Remote functionality, both of which have near-to-infinite possibilities when used with the Wii U.
When it finds its audience in 2014-to-2015, a near-perfect mix of core-and-casual gamers, that audience of gamers will buy more software than ever before on a Nintendo console—coming to the largest attach rate ever seen on a Nintendo console.
End of Generation Sales Projection: Over 110 Million Units Sold
End of Lifetime Sales Projection: Over 160 Million Units Sold
Oh, believe me, it would be a dream come true for me.
The main reason I am working towards my BFA in Graphic Design is so I have something that I can leverage a job with over at NoA. Afterwards, I could work my way up from there.
I have had my sights set at Nintendo, their marketing, and game development for a long time now. Ever since I was 6-years-old, where I first came to know about Shigeru Miyamoto, he became like a father to me. I can’t wait to see what the next few years have in store for me.
I finish my BFA in Graphic Design in 2015, so I’m hoping to move over to Redmond, WA or Los Angeles, CA during summer of that same year in order to further my career and build on my work experience. If I land a job at Nintendo after graduating, it would not only be a dream come true, but my life’s goal would be further realized, and I could bring many new projects to the table.
Obviously, I won’t mention the huge amount of ideas here, but there are plenty ideas I have for Nintendo’s future—both gaming and device-wise—that would introduce concepts and new innovations never seen before in the world of gaming.
My main life goal is to make things that bring happiness and togetherness into everyone’s lives through the experiences that can only be offered through Nintendo. :)
Yeah, but as Rare is going down under, I won’t be surprised if Nintendo soon starts buying out all of Rare’s major IPs. Battletoads is one of their obscure ones, though, and I doubt that would ever be bought.
But the wii u can’t have a price cut e, it’s already expensive enough to manufacture, so if they price cut it they’ll lose a ton of money, but all the other predictions sound about right, it will be a good year if nintendo does this I’ve been dieing for sonic adventure 3, oh yeah I have the gut feel smash bros be for a little whiles :)
According to a new report from International Data Corporation (IDC), Nintendo should have sold over 50 million Wii U consoles by 2016. IDC noted that Nintendo will eventually “find an audience” with with its new console, the Wii U.
Wow! That’s a lot!
With with.
I said this weeks ago. Not more than 50 million though. I should get paid for my prediction.
U know that 2016 is three years later right …. Which is about half of the usual console life
Or will this be the year the True Next Gen console from Nintendo hits?
How the heck (and why) do people predict things like this? Is Nintendo psychics? NOBODY knows if that many consoles will sell. Predicting things like this is as bad as when people predict the end of the world will happen on a certain date, and then it doesn’t.
Without predictions like this companies would have a hard time getting any backing or pleasing shareholders which ultimately hold all the cards and keep the board in jobs. The people with the cash want to know long term how their investments will likely turn out. Also it is absolutely nothing like predicting the end of the world, done by looking in ancient books or calendars which have no relevance, they’re done by forecasting by means of current market analysis, looking at how big their install base is and roughly how big they can expand it to, seeing how long it’s taken the competition to sell that many, taking into account the predicted change in national inflation and currency fluctuation etc…
I said a long time ago before launch Wii U would sell a minimum of 50 million.
I think it will sell a little more thant that. Something between 50-60 million
Which is why he said “minimum”.
I somehow doubt this.
New article???? BRING IN THE TROLLS. LOL
it’s actually kinda fun xD
Dear Nintendo fan.
DON’T LIKE THINGS I DON’T LIKE!!!11!!
My mum got me this Xbox so now I have to put the others down so I can feel superior to you!
Regards
Mr. Tony Roll
We do have a lot of fanboys here with some conversations going like this:
Fanboy: OMG OMG X is 1337!!1!!!111 ur so dumb u dum ugy faggottard fanboy!!11!
Fan of another medium: Actually, X has an extremely cliched plot and dull, invincible protagonists. Really, how many times in the history of games has-
Fanboy: OMG UR SCH A-
*Fanboy drops several dozen f-bombs on Fan-of-another-medumland. This continues until Fanboy vomits on himself in pure, unadulterated rage.*
Mostly It is two fanboys each with bad logic but It has been getting better.
While looking at the sony blog I did find this witch I find funny
Re: nintendo fanboy attack
“Envy? Probably…our game is better.But hey,Nintendrones are too mind-closed to admit that PASBR is better.
We stealed Wii mote? The move is better.
We stealed Wii Sports? Sports Champion is WAY better
That’s what I think of Nintendo’s fanboys.”
Trolls are only here because we are so easy to troll many a time I have put a sarcastic or Ironic comment only to be met with rage.
awesome! dude can you give a link? XD
Wow, that’s a lot. 50 million on 3 years! o_O
If it does this well, it’s going to reach at least 80 in 6 years! :D
Well after the incredible achievements of the DS, Wii and now 3DS, they don’t really need to sell that much for the company to be considered successful at this time.
Funny they predict this without predicting what they plan on making with the console bit to mention smash bros.
why would they predict what games will come out and when if they’re talking strictly sales of the console 3 years from now?
Kinda low when compared to the Wii.
Low? Explain please, cause 50 million in 3 years is Fucking good dude. Compare it with the ps360 70mil in 6 a 7 years; if Nintendo gonna reach this on 2016 it will be Fucking awsome! !
do you read? he said compared to the wii you dipshit.
Either you didn’t read the comment, or you clearly haven’t seen the astronomical sales figures for the Wii.
Either way, it’s hard to envisage the Wii U achieving the sales figures of the original Wii. That thing was a huge revolution back then. Not saying the U isn’t presenting a new way to play, but it’s not going to shake up the industry in the way Nintendo did in 2006. It’ll still be a brilliant console in its own right, and that’s more than enough for me.
50 million is a figure higher!
when 50 million domesticated cats look at your picture, they go “what…the…FUCK?” lol
if they’re smart with their advertising, they could exceed 50 mil.
50 million isn’t farfetched. look at its predecessor the wii for fuck’s sake. yeah, nintendo still has it. they always find their place, more importantly, in the gaming industry. they always have been and will be a successful gaming company till the end.
DS sold 37 million units in Japan alone and handhelds sell alot more than consoles.
By the time Unity delievers the Unity 4 Engine on indie titles, Retro Studios presenting their graphics engine on their next Nintendo title, and third party publishers releasing a Wii U game powered by Unreal Engine 4 (it’s scalable on the U), there’s good possibility the Wii U will sell about 50 million units (mostly the Deluxe [Premium outside North America] sets).
May I quote you comment in every new article Alba and Sickr post?
I guess taking in these predictions, it will sell alot better than both N64 and Gamecube.
So in other words, Nintendo isn’t going anywhere in the following 6 years.
I would hope so, I think if third parties support the Wii U at least as much as they have the PS3, it should be very successful.
Lulz… IDC are a joke. Everything gaming related they’ve predicted or claimed has been wrong.
Like how they’re also claiming today that the PS3 has shipped 77million to December, when it was only at 70million in early November. It’s just not possible.
I know this is going to sound crazy, but I don’t agree with this sales prediction for the Wii U. Here are my predictions for the entire generation of Wii U/Nintendo 3DS systems, and I urge you all to read them, as they are down to a year-by-year basis:
—–
DISCLAIMER: Before my yearly predictions of this generation to the next one, I want to make a point of why the Wii U and the Nintendo 3DS will be the longest generation of systems Nintendo has ever created.
This should be obvious for the Wii U—it is Nintendo’s first HD console, so there are a countless number of franchises that they can create and utilize the Wii U GamePad to make highly innovative use of the new tech. While Nintendo will be focusing on major titles for the Wii U in its first years (see predictions below), we should be seeing many new franchises get their start on the Wii U. However, do not expect many of Nintendo’s more obscure franchises (i.e. Battletoads or Mach Rider) get a place in the spotlight just yet (more on that below as well).
For the Nintendo 3DS, this would be harder for people to believe, but let me explain why the Nintendo 3DS will have the longest handheld generation. Ever since the Nintendo 3DS first launched, third-party support that we haven’t ever seen before on a Nintendo portable system has allowed the handheld’s library to become more robust than previous handheld systems already (and it is two months shy of being 2-years-old). However, the system has so much potential going for it, as many of Nintendo’s franchises could use a 3D facelift and this platform could be home to both new Nintendo titles in existing franchises, the revival of long-forgotten Nintendo franchises, AND remakes of older Nintendo games in 3D. More on these predictions down below.
—–
Okay, let’s get to the good stuff. These predictions will be separated into comments to make them easier to read year-by-year. There’s a lot:
IN 2013:
Wii U – Sales (by end of year): 15-25 Million Units Sold
– Shortly into the year, two months before E3, Nintendo will host a Nintendo Direct in April to announce the price cut for the Wii U Basic and Deluxe systems. In total, the price will be slashed to $239.99 and $279.99, respectively. Both will be bundled with Nintendo Land.
– At E3, Super Mario U (2013), The Legend of Zelda: Majora’s Mask HD (2013), Super Smash Bros. U (2014), Metroid (2014), Mario Kart U (2013) unveiled. A new, never-before-seen Nintendo IP will be showcased for 2013, exclusive to the Wii U Nintendo eShop. There will be third-party exclusives announced for the Wii U—among these, Beyond Good & Evil 2, Sonic Adventure 3, and a new Metal Gear Solid, all published by Nintendo.
– After E3, Virtual Console games will come to the Wii U, including only GameCube and Dreamcast libraries at the start, but later extending into older games (more details in other yearly predictions). All titles will be enhanced ports of the original games, fitted for the 1080p resolution of the Wii U, unlike the Wii and Nintendo 3DS’ Virtual Console games that upscale VC games for them respectively. The Wii’s Virtual Console library will not be brought over to the Wii U, but it will remain accessible under the Wii Shop Channel in Wii Mode. These purchases will be charged for everyone, including those who have already bought the games on the Wii’s shop.
– Before the holidays, Mario U and Mario Kart U will be released. Majora’s Mask will release in Summer 2013, Bayonetta 2 will come out near Halloween, and a Pokemon app will be created for a new game coming in 2014 (details will be announced in an October Nintendo Direct following up the release of Pokemon X and Y).
– Holiday sales will see a huge surge across all of the United States and Japan.
Nintendo 3DS – Sales (by end of year): 45-50 Million Units Sold
– At E3, Donkey Kong Land Returns (2013), Star Fox 2 (2014), New Legend of Zelda (2013), and Kirby’s Pop Up Pannick (2013), and a new F-Zero game (2013) will be announced.
– Shortly afterwards, SNES and GEN games will start coming to the 3DS Virtual Console. 3D Classics: Super Metroid will be announced before Metroid U’s launch, a game that will take place prior to the events of Fusion.
– Nintendo 3DS and Nintendo 3DS XL will receive a price cut along with release of Pokemon X and Y, making both $149.99 and $179.99, respectively. Blue XL will come with Pokemon X and Red will come with Pokemon Y. A White and Pink 3DS XL will make its way to the states before the holidays officially.
IN 2014:
Wii U – Sales (by end of year): 45-50 Million Units Sold
– The Wii U will find its audience—a mix of core Nintendo fans and casual gamers, but as a first, Nintendo will see a large surge in software sales because the casual gamers will begin taking to the Nintendo eShop, which will become far more robust to the likes of the App Store on iOS.
– Early into the year, a new Wii U console model will be announced for release in the summer, available in only two colors on release. The new console will feature a matte finish and be released alongside a new matte, enchanced version of the GamePad that boasts a better battery life (6 to 8 Hours) and a slightly larger screen (6.8 inches diagonally).
– At E3, Miyamoto will announce his departure from head of Nintendo EAD, along with more new projects he is working on for the future of the Wii U—Tezuka will claim his position.
– More on Super Smash Bros. U (2014) and Metroid U (2014) will be shown. The next Legend of Zelda game for Wii U will be announced. Nintendo will mostly be showing off their new IPs as the focus of this E3 on the Wii U, but third-party showings will include an exclusive, new Castlevania game that is not derived from the Lords of Shadow series, Mega Man reboot, Phantasy Star Online 2, Monster Hunter 4 HD, Final Fantasy XVI, and Resident Evil reboot all coming exclusively to the Wii U—published by Nintendo.
– An update for the Wii U will be shown off partially to display the new changes made to the OS, which include custom theme packs available from the Nintendo eShop (same for 3DS+), a “library/bookshelf” designed folders that will be accessible from the Wii U Menu, allowing downloaded games to be easily organized (same for 3DS+). These folders will only be created when users download certain types of titles (i.e. Virtual Console games downloaded will automatically create a Virtual Console folder and appear inside of that folder on the Wii U Menu), and a new Mii update will allow for the Wii U will allow Miis to start collecting hats from games. This will serve as the Wii U and Nintendo 3DS+’s achievement system—allowing for more customization options that can be unlocked through your favorite games or by finding hidden hats scattered across the Wii U and Nintendo 3DS+ OS. While this will be available on the Nintendo 3DS+, the Nintendo 3DS/Nintendo 3DS XL will not feature this functionality for obvious reasons (dividing the fanbase once again).
Nintendo 3DS – Sales (by end of year): 60-70 Million Units Sold
– At E3, a new model for the Nintendo 3DS will be shown off. Let’s call it Nintendo 3DS+ for reference. 3DS+ will feature the same size screens as the XL, matte finish, an updated form factor, a wider-autostereoscopic 3D display (not the screen itself, but the 3D’s projection instead) that will allow for better viewing angles while in 3D Mode, and a much longer battery life (7 to 10 hours).
– This new system will have a better processor in order for it to fully handle Miiverse, the new-and-updated Nintendo eShop, and a better Internet Browser, among other functionality. It is best to think of the system as a portable Wii U in terms of OS design, minus certain features unique to the Wii U (such as HD and higher res than 240p, which will still be the resolution of the 3DS+ display). The 3DS+ will NOT feature a second Circle Pad or extra triggers. Nintendo will state this is to prevent dividing the audience of gamers.
– Miiverse for Nintendo 3DS systems is exclusive to Nintendo 3DS games solely. Can be accessed by all Nintendo 3DS systems, but StreetPass Mii Plaza will be largely updated and work in a similar vein as the WaraWara Plaza for the Nintendo 3DS+ (more details below), and only the Nintendo 3DS+ will feature suspended play for Miiverse, the new Nintendo eShop, new Internet Browser, Nintendo 3DS Camera, and Nintendo 3DS Chat functionality.
– The new Internet Browser is as fast as the Wii U’s and uses a slightly similar design. It is compatible with HTML5 and will work with YouTube.
– Update will include NNID functionality for Miiverse and Nintendo eShop. Friends can be easily made through Miiverse, but Friend Codes will not be replaced because replacing that system would divide the fanbase.
– A new service for the Nintendo 3DS will be shown off for streaming providers (to the likes of Nintendo TVii), and will be available on the Nintendo 3DS+ launch (also accessible via suspended play). It will not include cable or satellite functionality due to the portability of the system, but it will work with streaming providers like Netflix, Hulu Plus, and Amazon Instant Video from launch.
– There will be a weak lineup of games shown off, including Star Fox 2, which will be pushed to a November release from the original Q2 scheduled release, as well as Super Mario 3D Land 2, Wave Race 3D, and a new 2D Metroid game announcement. The rest will be third-party multi-platform titles. The weak lineup will be over-turned, however, by Nintendo’s digital, first-party offerings available on the Nintendo eShop—with the update to the shop coming out with plenty of newly available download versions of previously retail-only games to catch up with the Wii U’s Nintendo eShop.
– AR Games/Face Raiders will no longer be present on the new OS for the Nintendo 3DS+.
– Mii Maker and StreetPass Mii Plaza will receive an update for all of the Nintendo 3DS systems that will allow users to customize their Mii’s hats in Mii Maker (only for the Personal User of the device, much like the Wii U’s version of Mii Maker). These hats will replace those worn while in StreetPass Mii Plaza, and the hats worn will now show in games featuring Mii functionality via a quick update for each of those games separately (like Mario Kart). This update to StreetPass Mii Plaza will maintain hats previously earned on other Nintendo 3DS systems and allow users to access those hats through the Mii Maker instead, with Puzzle Swap and Find Mii progress being kept in-check. Nintendo 3DS and 3DS XL owners can still tag 3DS+ owners with StreetPass, but will not see 3DS+ users’ Miis wearing any hats other than a 3DS+ hat.
On normal Nintendo 3DS systems (3DS/3DS XL) that are not compatible with this exclusive 3DS+ feature, games will not display hats on other users’ Miis, but the Nintendo 3DS Friend List and other areas will function and show (after an update) what type of system the user is playing on.
Another huge update for the Wii U and Nintendo 3DS+ (not Nintendo 3DS) is that the Friend List will be integrated into Miiverse in its entirety. Users can easily create parties and games with friends through Miiverse, join other friends’ online games, and view their entire friend list through Miiverse. This will allow for some much needed streamlined connectivity.
PC/Other Devices:
– Miiverse and Nintendo eShop websites/apps will become fully accessible.
– Purchases can be made for both the Wii U and Nintendo 3DS by linking your NNID to these services, with the downloads/installs only taking place when either system is powered on that is linked to your NNID.
– Miiverse will be utilized for both Wii U and Nintendo 3DS games on these devices, blending together both Friend Lists on these separate systems together into one as well. WaraWara Plaza will not be accessible on these devices.
2015 AND BEYOND:
The Wii U and Nintendo 3DS will continue to grow with their audiences. Wii U and Nintendo 3DS will continue to come together with their wireless features in ways we have never seen before in previous Nintendo generations.
Together, both will receive the most robust and enriching experiences ever seen on Nintendo devices.
With the revolutionary Nintendo 3DS+ model, Miiverse and the Nintendo eShop will become much stronger platforms that are used in common conversation everyday to the likes of Twitter/Facebook and the App Store/Steam, respectively. This new business model for Nintendo will allow them to maintain the console/handheld presence of the Wii U and Nintendo 3DS generation all the way into the start of a new decade, 2020, with a strong array of first-and-third party support for each year. On years where there is little first-party support, third-parties will continue pushing their games to both consoles either with temporary or permanent exclusivity. A small number of games will be multi-platform, with most being exclusives to Nintendo platforms this next generation of gaming.
Here’s the catch—
While the Nintendo 3DS’ new model will be announced in Early 2018, the new system is projected to release before the holiday season of the same year. This will be in line with the Nintendo DS to Nintendo 3DS generation in some regard, with a slightly longer generation for the Nintendo 3DS due to the high amount of appeal the Nintendo 3DS+ will garner for itself when it comes out. The Nintentdo 3DS+ will most likely be the last version of the Nintendo 3DS in the family of systems (it is possible that when it comes out, it may even replace both of the previous models while the previous ones become discontinued). Much like the DSi, I won’t be surprised to see this system have a small and large version made to the likes of the Nintendo 3DS and XL size factors, albeit with larger screens on both models.
End of Generation Sales Projection: Over 150 Million Units Sold
End of Lifetime Sales Projection: Over 200 Million Units Sold
The Wii U is scheduled to continue on until 2020, with an Early 2020 announcement, and a mid-2020 conference, it is expected Nintendo will release the next console successor in Late 2020, though that may extend into 2021. Before this time, it is expected that Nintendo will release something in the vein of an Expansion Pak from the N64 for Wii U games, connecting via USB, with its own exclusive games to make use of it (with one Nintendo game—most likely Metroid, Zelda, or Donkey Kong—coming bundled with it). This could allow it to have even better looking games with increased GPU performance, as well as a better way to handle these exclusive games in general. On top of the already mentioned second rendition of matte controllers for the Wii U (Wii Remotes and Nunchucks included), up to three GamePad models will be made in line with this. The last GamePad model is expected to have an LED touch-screen that is more responsive and looks far better, boasting a near-to 7.5 inch screen, matte design, huge battery life, and larger wireless range from the console.
Nintendo will find very little reason to continue with the five-to-six year model with their next home console launch because it is important for them to continue innovating to be important in this modern-day society. The Wii U will be able to continue with its innovation through the Wii U GamePad and other features all throughout its life, unlike the Wii’s limited success, because it utilizes both the Wii U GamePad and Wii Remote functionality, both of which have near-to-infinite possibilities when used with the Wii U.
When it finds its audience in 2014-to-2015, a near-perfect mix of core-and-casual gamers, that audience of gamers will buy more software than ever before on a Nintendo console—coming to the largest attach rate ever seen on a Nintendo console.
End of Generation Sales Projection: Over 110 Million Units Sold
End of Lifetime Sales Projection: Over 160 Million Units Sold
Jonathan… that was very interesting. I love it!!!! Maybe one of these days, you should work for Nintendo of America.
Oh, believe me, it would be a dream come true for me.
The main reason I am working towards my BFA in Graphic Design is so I have something that I can leverage a job with over at NoA. Afterwards, I could work my way up from there.
I have had my sights set at Nintendo, their marketing, and game development for a long time now. Ever since I was 6-years-old, where I first came to know about Shigeru Miyamoto, he became like a father to me. I can’t wait to see what the next few years have in store for me.
I finish my BFA in Graphic Design in 2015, so I’m hoping to move over to Redmond, WA or Los Angeles, CA during summer of that same year in order to further my career and build on my work experience. If I land a job at Nintendo after graduating, it would not only be a dream come true, but my life’s goal would be further realized, and I could bring many new projects to the table.
Obviously, I won’t mention the huge amount of ideas here, but there are plenty ideas I have for Nintendo’s future—both gaming and device-wise—that would introduce concepts and new innovations never seen before in the world of gaming.
My main life goal is to make things that bring happiness and togetherness into everyone’s lives through the experiences that can only be offered through Nintendo. :)
The only part i read was obscure ips battetoads but battletoads is from rare and tarde is Microsoft. :(
Yeah, but as Rare is going down under, I won’t be surprised if Nintendo soon starts buying out all of Rare’s major IPs. Battletoads is one of their obscure ones, though, and I doubt that would ever be bought.
But the wii u can’t have a price cut e, it’s already expensive enough to manufacture, so if they price cut it they’ll lose a ton of money, but all the other predictions sound about right, it will be a good year if nintendo does this I’ve been dieing for sonic adventure 3, oh yeah I have the gut feel smash bros be for a little whiles :)
no way, the Wii U will no longer exist in 2016 … !
Don’t you have things to do… like collecting coins?