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DFC: Launching Nintendo NX In 2016 ‘A Mistake Under Any Scenario’

Analyst firm DFC believes it would be a big mistake for Nintendo to release the NX platform in 2016. The reason? Well, they say that competing against the Virtual Reality solutions that are expected mid to late year such as PlayStation VR could prove to be a disaster. DFC says that they will prove to be extremely popular and would dwarf consumer interest in the Nintendo NX. They say that the NX won’t have an impact on the market until at least late 2017.

“DFC believes that Nintendo launching a new system in 2016 would be a mistake and under any scenario the Nintendo NX will not have an impact on the market until late 2017.”

“Of course, our perception is likely to evolve as more details around price points and launch dates become available, but 2016 is looking to be a record year for the game industry. In reviewing 2015 the PlayStation 4 met our expectations while the Xbox One and Wii U slightly underperformed. Going forward DFC believes that the potential launch of a new Nintendo system as well as new VR devices, especially the PlayStation VR will have a negative impact on the Xbox One and Wii U.

“Accordingly the market is open for the PlayStation 4 to have stronger sales and forecasts have been raised accordingly.”


89 thoughts on “DFC: Launching Nintendo NX In 2016 ‘A Mistake Under Any Scenario’”

    1. You took the words right out of my mouth. I really don’t see a lot of people embracing VR not even the casual gamers. Nintendo tried VR when it was fresh and new and look what happened and I really don’t see how Sony and Microsoft will be any different and besides, the price for one of those VR things will cost you an arm and a leg. I do agree that Nintendo should wait till next year to release the NX (home console version if the rumors prove to be true about the NX being a home console and a handheld) for the sake of future-proofing the system against the PS5 and the next Xbox but given how poorly the Wii U has been performing sales wise and how there’s only a handful of 1st party titles announced thus far, I really don’t see the NX releasing in 2017

      1. Comparing the Virtual Boy to today’s possibilities with VR makes you lose all kind of credibility.
        And that’s coming from someone who’s having doubts about the potential success of the upcoming VR glasses.

        1. I’m not comparing the Virtual Boy to PlayStation VR or Microsoft Hololens, my point is that Nintendo tried to do VR when it was completely brand new and unheard of but now Sony and Microsoft wants to do it and they expect to be extremely successful off of it when the VR concept has already been around for decades? Sure technology has gotten vastly better over the years but I still don’t see Sony or Microsoft being successful with VR, especially with it being heavily targeted towards casuals. I don’t see everyday gamers embracing VR and I would say that if Nintendo tried to do it again. The concept for it just isn’t attractive

          1. I’m not saying you’re comparing the Virtual Boy directly with PS VR or Hololens, I’m saying you’re comparing the circumstances and possibilites of two entirely differnt times.
            The situation the Virtual Boy was in back in its day is not comparable to what’s happening with VR right now, all apart from the differences of the technology used. And just because the “concept” failed decades ago, doesn’t mean a significantly improved version, which is worlds ahead of what we saw initially with the VB, is doomed to fail as well for the same reasons.
            Just bringing up the Virtual Boy as an example for VR being destined to be unsuccessful does not make much sense to me.

            And as for your last statement, saying the concept isn’t attractive is merely your subjective evaluation of it. A whole lot of people are very intrigued by the concept and there’s very obvious hype for it for a reason. I, too, think that the concept of experiencing a game with such depth as VR strives to offer sounds pretty amazing. Of course that doesn’t guarantee success, as bringing a concept like that to life well enough seems extremely difficult for many reasons, but saying the “concept isn’t attractive” is practically the opposite of the impression I have been getting from reactions on the media. It’s not about the concept, quite the opposite – it’s the execution that’s to be worried about.

            1. I’m definitely cautious about the execution. I don’t think VR will take off, but if they do it right, then it probably will. Basically, I’m not holding my breath for anything spectacular. But if they do VR right, I think it will eventually be big. At first, regardless of execution, I don’t expect much because the price will probably really high. But once the technology becomes cheaper and they get execution down, I can see it doing big things… Well, that was a really long-winded response.

            2. While your right, the problem is though the INITIAL boom of VR would take away sales of NX. So by these guys logic NX would release and just sit there and have minimal sales cause people will buy VR instead at that time.

              1. I highly doubt the VR will last longer, Ace. Remember what happened in the late 1990’s including the demise of the Virtual Boy?

              1. |||Nintendo Dark Commander Quadraxis-NX Prime|||

                -||I hope their machine causes seizures and paralysis in their people to shut them off for good with their VR formula||-

              2. I hope you realize that these “fads” is all Nintendo ever does now. The motion controls on the Wii which everyone hates now. Remember when the 3DS first came out? Nintendo tried to made a huge deal, but who even uses the function? And don’t get me started on the gamefuckingpad! Asymmetric gaming my ass…

                1. |||Nintendo Dark Commander Quadraxis-NX Prime|||

                  -||I use the 3D 90% of the time||-

                  -||Though I like the gamepad, the usage of it is barely fair at best||-

                  1. Of course there will be some who use the feature obviously. However I remember reading somewhere that around 30% of 3DS owners actually use the 3D, but that was a while ago and since the New 3Ds has better 3D, the percentage may have increased.

                    The idea of the gamepad was awesome in theory, but terrible in practice.

                    P.S I use the 3D all the time as well.

                    1. I use the GamePad tons. Not as a motion control device, but more as a handheld. I think the greatest thing about the console is the ‘off-TV’ mode. From what I’ve heard, this is a very popular feature to be able to play the console without the TV. Even when I manage to have the TV on (rare now), I still find myself looking at the GamePad. I would say this is a major used feature.

                      The absolute worst part is the joke of a battery life in the device. Can barely last 4-5 hours, and with the lights blinking all day long it will die if not plugged in.

                      1. As an avid gamepad user, you csn get an extended battery that fits right where the old one goes that lasts 5-6 hours. Fyi! ;)

                      2. Same. I almost always use the 3D, especially with the N3DS.
                        Gamepad is awesome. I think the people who like it least are not nintendo-centric and are not used to different kinds of controls. Their hands are trained for one basic control type. People with high Nintendo-midiclorian count are not so paralyzed using various types of controls. N64, GCube, Wii, WiiU – hell, we could game on anything after the various control types we’ve used the last several gens. XD

                        1. Only hipsters hate motion controls. If done right it’s great. Some games are vastly better with it like Splatoon, Starfox Zero and Zelda. I never want to go back to the “traditional” style for Zelda games. You haters are a fad, moving on from gen to gen bashing the next thing. Gimmicks are a good thing, shows you are creative and pushing the industry forward not letting it sit still. Much like a shark, if it stops it dies. Must keep moving. Gimmicks can END UP bad in the end, but it’s good to try new things, otherwise your Atari who only thought controls should be 1 stick and 1 button FOREVER, and then you die off.

                          1. I’m going to make this short. You got a source to back up your claim? If not then stop making assumptions. First of all, I am not a hater, just because I pointed out that all Nintendo does are fads. It doesn’t mean that I hate what they do, I only hate what they did with the Wii U.

                            I love it when Nintendo have new ideas but if they fail to support it, that’s a problem.

                              1. The real problem there was all of those things could have been more than a fad, but as usual, Nintendo didn’t support their new ideas well. Except for 3D. Not much you could do with that that wouldn’t be better with VR.

                                They basically throw out cool ideas and hope someone else does something unique with it. That’s why I want them to go traditional with the NX, so that some random hardware doesn’t push third parties away and because Nintendo doesn’t take advantage of it anyway. Might as well spend that time somewhere else.

                                1. Hardware doesn’t push third parties away. People not purchasing their games and companies that don’t provide money to help them out pushes them away. Third parties don’t care what the hardware is like if they can make money on it.

                              2. A VR console would fail more easily than a Wii U. A VR would require a game developer to completely work their game around and make almost every single game they make first person. It would be much easier to develop for other normal consoles. It isn’t just a “shake the thing” from the Wii.

                                1. I’m not a huge fan of first person games either…which is why I have such little interest in VR. I mostly play RPGs and I like a 3rd person perspective because, well, I am playing as someone else not myself.

                                  1. They already call the Wii U “too complex” to work with, so just imagine if the PS5 came with an obligatory, kinect-like oculus rift. Sony’s not that dumb, sounds more like the “new Kinect” that Microsoft would introduce. Besides, considering the oculus alone is 600$ the console would reach the thousand dollars in price.
                                    I played the oculus myself and while I think it’s cool, I’d much rather play on a nice screen where I can see everything much more clearly. Immersion isn’t always better and it definetely doesn’t seem like VR will be the future of gaming, just a cool little thing, like the wiimote.

                                2. I’m far more interested in a powerful console that I can utilize and do many different things with than wearing a head set that puts me into a world. That’s just my preference, but I’m not saying it’s not interesting technology. I simply don’t see it becoming even near as big as conventional gaming. I could be wrong, but it is possible it could throw people off from investing in NX.

                                3. I don’t think VR will have too much of an effect because it’s too expensive and the average consumer doesn’t care. I think VR is cool but right now it really is just a fad. Unless they make it cheap and convincing for the average consumer it will die like the PlayStation move, Kinect, and in a lesser way the Wii U gamepad (even though i freaking love that thing.)

                                4. They already said its not a VR console so I don’t know how these DFC ‘experts’ are still talking about it. Sure shows what they know though. Also, this is just one of those lame companies thats paid to have opinions based off of nothing.

                                  1. Just because Nintendo says that it isn’t a VR console it doesn’t mean that it isn’t. Nintendo (or any company at that) isn’t one to tell you what it’s console is before its release, or anything at that. It’s not like they’re going to say “well hey, they guessed it, so we have no other option but to prematurely tell them about it.” Although I hope it isn’t a VR console though.

                                5. It’s nintendo’s fault the nx console needs to release this november. If it was coming out next year reggie should have kept his mouth shut at the e3 digital event. The hype will be gone in november next year. The average consumer won’t care anymore. You can’t announce something and release it 2 years later. Doesn’t work like that anymore.

                                      1. Nintendo isn’t in the minority section. Secondly, they have bigger plans for this company– DeNA, licensing merchandise, manga and anime, their new game system(s), and Universal Studios theme parks in the United States and Japan!

                                          1. That doesn’t count. If you think Nintendo fans are in the minority, why the hell do they have millions of Nintendo systems? Think about it.

                                            1. Last time I checked there was just under 13 million wii u’s sold and most of them aren’t core nintendo fans. There’s the core audience and then the average consumer. Just like the ps4, most of the owners are casuals
                                              who like to play games ocassionally.

                                              1. |||Nintendo Dark Commander Quadraxis-NX Prime|||

                                                -||There are also over 50 million 3DS:s out there||-

                                                -||The truth is, all Empires have a low percentage of true warriors||-

                                                -||At least we have the most evolved and sophisticated ones, starting with me||-

                                              2. But what if the NX handheld is more than just a handheld? But more like a legit tablet on par with all the functionality of an iPad. That could be huge and go beyond just the core Nintendo fan base.

                                                1. We have no reliable proof that Nintendo will launch a new system this year and I believe the PS VR will become a fad in less than a year.

                                                    1. I was referring to the NX launch. I personally don’t think it’s gonna release it this year due to the anniversaries of Pokémon, Metroid, and The Legend of Zelda.

                                                    2. The average consumer doesn’t know anything about the NX though, we the core fanbase are the ones hyping it up and are the only ones aware that the NX is even a thing. If the NX gets delayed to 2020 the average consumer will think nothing of it.

                                                    3. All Reggie said at last year’s E3 was that “there will be more information on codename NX next year” i.e. E3 2016. He didn’t “announce” anything. Also, going off history, the Wii was revealed at e3 2005 and wasn’t released until Nov. 2006. The Wii U was revealed at e3 2011 and wasn’t released until Nov. 2012. The NX will be revealed at e3 2016 and released sometime in 2017. Bank it.

                                                    4. People are still excited for The Last Guardian and that’s been what 8 years now? So hush up, those who are excited will be and those who aren’t are just the flash in the pan people who buy things right then, right now cause they can.

                                                  1. |||Nintendo Dark Commander Quadraxis-NX Prime|||

                                                    -||Another baseless and hype based speculation when no one except High Command knows what the NX-Weapon is||-

                                                  2. VR wouldn’t be my concern, the only problem with this article is that the NX is still an unknown (home console? hand held? both? something else?) and therefore it can’t be determined how it fits into the market. Secondly, it might be inaccurate to say the WiiU underperformed, for as the console’s life span has gone on, this past year may be one of if not the best for it, so it more than likely outperformed expectations based on what most people believed was already a dead and buried console.

                                                    I am not sold that we will get anything in 2016, but the reveal is almost certain

                                                  3. My two two cents:

                                                    First two cent: Yes, it’s a mistake because no 3rd party support will be available late this year, not because of VR.

                                                    Second two cent: No, VR won’t be the next big thing due to its high cost.

                                                  4. I agree that launching the NX in 2016 may not pan out well for Nintendo at all (unless it’s really the revolutionary console everyone is expecting it to be, which it won’t be), but I stopped taking the article seriously when it said that VR is going to overthrow NX. VR is not a traditional console, and is aiming for a truly different experience and specific audience (the kind that will shove out $600 for a VR helmet).

                                                  5. Anyone see any great VR games yet?
                                                    I haven’t!
                                                    Anyone want to spend $300+ for a VR experience with crappy games?

                                                    So many Nintendo fans complained about all the dry spells during the Wii U life cycle… the VR will be even worse here!

                                                    You have to spend $250 – $300 for a PS4 (Price might drop, or you could pick up used), then spend another $300
                                                    (Assuming it’s this cheap), then spend like $50+ (small guess) for a game that supports VR.

                                                    The NX has a better chance to being a WOW factor if the games look great, and is a much cheaper affordable system!

                                                        1. Yep. 3DS got TWO Zelda games (although Tri-Force Heroes is lame) before Wii U even has one. Luigi’s Mansion sequel for 3DS. Wii U? Luigi DLC (which was pretty good, but not his own game). Wii U is getting Smash? Let’s give the 3DS one as well. Wii U got Hyrule Warriors? Let’s give the 3DS the game also, but with all DLC already included, plus some new stuff. Wii U got about 10-20 great AAA games? Let’s give the 3DS about 100-200!

                                                            1. ~*Let the shackles be released!*~ Chains of Lucifer X3 ~*Or fall forever!*~

                                                              ~*I love my 3DS but at the same time… I FUCKING HATE YOU, 3DS!!! *cough* Ahem! If Smash 4 3DS & Hyrule Warriors Legends weren’t a thing, I wouldn’t be feeling this way.*~

                                                          1. I really don’t see VR becoming as big as they think it will. I love PlayStation and have bought most of the peripherals but still have no interest in this one. I do agree they shouldn’t release it this year but not for that reason. I just think building up interest for a year seems to work. The Wii U was announced one year, shown again the following year with a price tag and launch window with launch games. I have no doubt that it’ll be shown this year but I really don’t think it’s coming this year. If it does I don’t see it competing directly with a peripheral, which is all the VR headset really is. It doesn’t run anything independently and needs a PlayStation 4 to operate. To put this in perspective they’re saying the NX is competing with something that falls in the same category as cameras and controllers. While I’m sure the VR may bring interest to the PS4 in general it’s already sold well enough without it that I don’t think we’ll see a significant sale hike. Whatever they decide to do with the release date of it they need to learn from their biggest mistake. Drop the damn Wii and DS name! While the 3DS didn’t seem to suffer from confusion the Wii U certainly did. The GamePad was seen as a peripheral rather than part of a new console. If I hear anything closely resembling any past system’s name then I’ll be really concerned for the success of it.

                                                            1. ~*Let the shackles be released!*~ Chains of Lucifer X3 ~*Or fall forever!*~

                                                              ~*Not to mention if someone didn’t want to spend around 350-400 bucks for a PS4 before VR came out, why would they spend that much for the PS4 then an additional 500-1000 bucks for the VR?*~

                                                          2. {{Nintendo Tri-Force Hero Kokiri Kid adventurer}}

                                                            What would be an even bigger mistake is if they kept the Wii U with no games for another 2 yrs.

                                                          3. Releasing the NX this year would be a mistake, but not because of VR. Nintendo needs to hunker down with the Wii U and make sure their NX launch lineup is fully baked. A late 2017 release is good because it would leave plenty of dev time for a whole host of games to sell the system on day one, as well as getting a jump on the second and third wave. They need to cement brand loyalty among Wii U owners in particular. Four more big games should be fine (SF0, Zelda U, Pikmin 4 and Paper Mario). They can’t just drop it like a hot potato and rush the next console out the door prematurely like they did with the Wii U.

                                                          4. Anyone teathering a headset to another device is already behind the curve. Glyph and Google w/ their independent visor already have the right idea when it comes to non-smartphone cardboard solutions.

                                                          5. But…………….NX Handheld launching this year completely nullifies their problem. Nintendo’s handhelds do great, and stupid VR wont effect it at all, if anything the NX Handheld could have improved AR which lets be honest is vastly superior to VR in basically every way.

                                                              1. |||Nintendo Dark Commander Quadraxis-NX Prime|||

                                                                -||Augmented Reality is like the upcoming Hololens and the 3DS games where you “see” things in the real realm||-

                                                              2. Pingback: Analistas: Lanzar NX en 2016 sería un error | Atomix

                                                              3. Don’t care for vr and most likely never will and the nx console should definitely launch next year with a lot of good games at launch but maybe the handheld can be released this year but if not then also next year with a lot of good games but the nx has so much to do

                                                              4. Pingback: Secondo gli analisti di DFC lanciare Nintendo NX nel 2016 è un grande errore da qualsiasi prospettiva |

                                                              5. I think the NX should wait until next year, at the very least to make sure that it’s got a good opening line-up.

                                                                Of all things, Nintendo can’t afford to screw up the opening lineup again. They tried thinking that a New Super Mario Bros game would be enough for the Wii U opening and that backfired.

                                                              6. Nintendo would be stupid NOT to release something this year. The Wii U is dying, and unfortunately 3DS sales are (slowly) dwindling. They can’t ride the Amiibo wave for another 1-1.5 years. If they think that they shouldn’t release because it can’t compete with VR, then they’re implying VR will be a success – which if that’s the case, why wait until VR has fully caught on and there will be even more VR games by the time they release in 2017? Good fucking grief.
                                                                And in this day and age of social media, the internet, and how quickly we can get entertainment, you can’t delay the next console to 2017 and hope you can tide us over by “unveiling” the console this year. That’s not how things work anymore.

                                                              7. If the NX doesnt sell well. It will be Nintendos fault…Not because a SONY VR ADD ON!
                                                                Though I believe the NX would be better perceived if released in 2017.
                                                                That is as long as Nintendo doesn’t do the same mistakes it’s done with the Wii U.
                                                                …no advertisement.
                                                                …3rd party abandonment.
                                                                …all around online chat on all games.
                                                                …having a built in hard drive.

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