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Nintendo Wii: Analyst Says The Nintendo Wii 2 Will Fail And Other Rants

Outspoken games industry analyst Michael Pachter believes that Nintendo’s successor to the immensely popular Wii won’t be able to compete against Sony and Microsoft’s future offerings, especially if they can’t entice third party developers on-board.

“Nintendo can’t let Microsoft have a 20 million install base of next-gen consoles and they’re still in the last generation,” said Pachter on Bonus Round. “I’ve been vilified during the last couple of weeks for saying that. I said in ’08 [the Wii HD] was coming, because I really thought the time was right […] 2010, I think, was the absolute last Christmas they could afford to wait. They had to do it and they didn’t. Now, I think it’s too late.”

“Clearly, any of the three console manufacturers can advance the technology to the next level and have facial recognition, have Milo that actually works, that kind of stuff. I mean, they could do it, but do you think any of the third parties are gonna support that?”

“I don’t see EA, who’s barely profitable, saying: ‘We had such a great experience with the Wii last time, we’re gonna dedicate $500 million of R&D to make facial recognition stuff.’ It ain’t gonna happen.”

“So without third-party support, I think the Wii 2, if it’s truly a revolutionary device, will fail,” Pachter said. “I think they boxed themselves in. No matter what they do, it won’t be as successful as the Wii.”

– Michael Pachter, Wedbush Morgan


55 thoughts on “Nintendo Wii: Analyst Says The Nintendo Wii 2 Will Fail And Other Rants”

  1. i’m gonna kill this motherfucker. he doesn’t know what he’s talking about. he’s probably been hired by sony to spew this crap. everybody do a background check on this guy and you will see he knows nothing! my left nut is a better “analyst” then this guy.

    the wii 2 or wii hd or whatever it ends up being name will unleash next gen rape all over again. with it now being in hd, control problems will be fixed and hopefully online will be too, the new wii will SMASH the PS4 and new xbox.

    FUCK YOU PATCHER! i’m calling you out!

    1. I agree, this guy makes me so mad everytime i hear about his stupid shit. He said Black ops wouldn’t even touch MW2’s numbers… well look what happened. He thinks he knows it all but he’s such a stupid piece of shit that needs to leave the game industry alone and take is wise-ass predictions elsewhere.

    2. “Raymond!” while you are probably only exaggerating, saying your going to kill a ‘motherfucker’ for just what he thinks makes you sound like an unbalanced headcase, and is completely unnecessary.

      Personally while I find what Pachter says a bit tiresome he’s a good wind-up merchant and you should take a lot of what he says as tongue-in-cheeck. As it happens this is probably what he said about the wii before it launched – the whole 3rd party thing and all – so we’ll all see how close this one is.

  2. I love how he calls it the “Wii 2” Despite the fact that Nintendo never names their systems with numbers.

    Anyway, the reason Nintendo gets all the money is that the people don’t have to buy any new consoles as often. Nintendo makes new consoles when they figure that there’s something new they could have in their games (Such as with the 3DS). The “Wii 2” will supposedly have better graphics, but Nintendo’s best fans are more interested in GAMEPLAY. This guy has it all wrong.

    1. Not to be rude, because I do agree with your comment, @nintendonotnumbering, they do have the N64 and are coming out with a 3DS. They do well making most things backwards compatible or at least multi consoles out @ the time interconnected. Only problem I have is you can’t really use your Wii to DS internet on like you can with PS3 and AdHoc-ing the PSP, but Nintendo has always been ahead of their time and the first to do a lot of next-gen things, again ex: Gameboy/DS(portable and the latter is portable AND touch) and Wii(Motion Sensor). So I think if they do go next gen it’ll be something epic like 3D…. or something even more hands off than Wii like Wii with gloves or something more ridiculous. They still have a good solid year maybe before needing of somthing even MORE epic then the release of the Wii… IMO.
      *In case of those who may think I’m biased: I own a DS lite and a PSP(the psp game selection is awesome). Also, a Wii, N64 PS2 and Xbox 360*

      1. Nintendo stated a long time ago that they weren’t willing to do a 3D homeconsole until glasses-free 3D TVs became a common thing in every household.

  3. Too true. In North America, the 360 and even the PS3 are outselling the Wii, and Nintendo never states that when they release their worldwide figures. 3rd party developers are jumping to the systems that can deliver a bigger player base and better control/graphics. besides, now that the Wii has the oldest of the motion capture controllers, a major re-haul would have to be done.

    Lastly, and most importantly, consumers don’t forget when they’ve been lied to, and Nintendo still hasn’t lived up to the promises they made with the Virtual Console. Until SoulBlazer is purchasable from the Super Nintendo library, Nintendo will have fallen short in my book.

    1. But in the beginning and even after the release of PS3 and Xbox, Wii was-to quote ‘Raymond!’-raping them both. Even DS was destroying the failed PSP to go and for a while the PSP. Nintendo is, as much as I don’t completely like comparison either but, the Apple of gaming. IPods, though came @ by much more affordible and user friendly things like Zune or Department store Video/MP3 players, had a huge run because they came out complete full of goodies @ launch. They blow things outta the water then end up running slower sales after completely proving itself and people are quick to down and point out the short comings. But let me ask everyone this, When iPhone came out and Wii was released, you couldn’t find them in stores for MONTHS. If you want a virtual console game, then goto eBay my friend. They have better things to do than to revamp and rerelease games for nostolgic players, though I do appreciate your love for video games of the past. I’m waiting for a couple of N64 releases myself and they seemed to hault that systems library all together.
      3rd party games are important to any system and although Nintendo hasn’t had as much success with 3rds like Sony or Microsoft, but they don’t seem to be missing too many revenues due to the Mario and Pokemon franchises, as well as the 3rd party games they DO have. Plus, and now I am being biased, Animal Crossing is pretty cool, lol.
      But I do respect your opinion will fight for your right to say it

    2. Yeah consumers don’t like being lied to, because I’m sure Microsoft and Sony have never done ANYTHING like that have they?

    1. They announced during the 3DS buzz after E3 that they had already started working on the Wii’s successor and weren’t going to release it until 2012 approximately.

  4. I have a wii and sorry to say if they come out with an hd or better one u won’t see me rushing to the store. I’m happy with my wii because like others I’m about the game play. I do how ever want a play station 3 but also unfortunately do not have the money probably the one reason people got a wii in the first place is because it was cheaper. I have played the playstation as my ex had one and the graphics are off the hook but wasn’t willing to pay top notch for a backwards compatible version either. I haven’t heard of the ps4 yet or read up on it but hey come out with it then I can go get the ps3 at a lower price! That’s what sony is all about…making the older consoles obsolete right? I just like when the prices drop!

  5. I really wish we’d stop quoting this guy and giving him more credibility he deserves. Nintendo may not make the decisions we’d always like them to make, but they are not a dumb company. They will release their next home console when the time is right and when they feel like they have something that can compete in today’s market. To discount their next console before you even see it would be ludicrous.

  6. I don’t think that’s true, Nintendo always work with developers and I know people like me would want the latest Nintendo Device/Console and I’m sure others will too.

  7. um, im no fanboy or anything like that, but this guy cant be taken seriously because of all of his failed opinions/comments in the past. if Nintendo keeps doing what they are doing (as long as reggie and iwata is in the driver’s seat) they will be successful next gen, guaranteed! Go Nintendo!

  8. Of corse the next Nintendo console will not live up to the wii. The wii broke mad sells records. The ps2 even got beat out by it.

    So captain obvious just because it doesn’t out sell the wii doesn’t mean it’s not going to be successful.

  9. Has Pachter forgotten about the GC?

    The GC was dead in the water on release, don’t get me wrong I thought it was a good console IMO but still. What did Nintendo do? They came back, against all odds with one of the most best selling consoles of all time that revolutionalized gameplay in its time. Even though PS3 and Xbox are slowly cutting through the market I can bet you that the Big N have something hidden in a warehouse that will knock the eyebrows off the Kinect/HD/And blah blah blah…

    The fact is that Pachter seems to be on another planet, as a Site Admin I read all about his nonsense and its like, really? Are you sure? So I don’t know I might just add his name to my Spam Filter because I really don’t want to hear much more of his idiotic comments…

  10. Take no notice of that jobs-worth. Nintendo will release there next console when ready. Look at the 3DS, the latest link in the DS chain, are they gunning for an awesome GameBoy. They said at the start they wasnt in the console war cuz there console offered something different. Leave it with Nintendo I say.

  11. For once I see Pachter’s side. But he is still a moron. How many of his predictions are even close to accurate, 40% at best.

  12. I just wanted to add (though maybe it was already said) that Nintendo is the oldest gaming company of the main three. They know what they are doing and aren’t going to “fail” anytime soon. Fans won’t let them go for one thing – Nintendo is our source for Mario, Zelda, Pokemon, and many other games (personally I love Pikmin as well). With households having more then one system, and with family and kid friendly entertainment being inportant to a lot of parents, many (or most) household will have some sort of Nintendo system. So to Nintendo fans, just like almost everyone else commented, this guy is wrong and clearly doesn’t understand the video game industry revolves around games, not graphics.

    My family has been playing Nintendo since 1987 and will not be quitting any time soon. My brothers and I each have a 360, but when we’re together we still play Nintendo games, and apart we each have our favorites that we play. I would never give up my Gamecube, N64, Wii, or DS, and I’ve never had a Nintendo system die on me (aside from battery leakage that killed my first Game Boy – not Nintendo’s fault). Even our old NES still works and my mom regularly plays Tetris on SNES (actually Game Boy Tetris through the “Super Game Boy” on SNES). The same can’t be said for other systems – my Xbox DVD drive died, my brother’s Xbox had DVD read errors a lot, and the same brother had his 360 repaired after he got the red ring of death (while watching “The Ring” ironically). Nintendo makes good, durable systems and excellent games. They will be around for a long time.

  13. His intelligence can be seen simply in the last line of the entire thing.

    “No matter what they do, it won’t be as successful as the Wii.”

    – Michael Pachter, Wedbush Morgan

    He called the Wii successful. Self-contradiction gets you nowhere as a critic.

  14. How do you know a system will fail, if you don’t even know what it is?
    This is like saying: the next baby that gets born will be ugly, no matter how beautiful it is!
    But….we give him attention and that’s all he wants!

  15. Sorry, but the Wii has been increasingly unpopular, after people figured out what the PS3 and Xbox 360 have, that the Wii doesn’t… not to forget the announcement of the 3DS. (Here in Lagos, Nigeria, I noticed that no one is touching the Wii games on the shelves, compare to the rivals’ titles.) I’m even planning to get Microsoft’s successor for the Xbox 360 this time around, because of 3rd-party games.

    Thanks to the Wii, I missed “Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2”, the original “Prince of Persia: The Forgotten Sands” game, “Super Street Fighter IV” and “Bayonetta”. Like the guy said, he’s saying that Nintendo should put 3rd-party developers first. Nothing greater, or more demanding, than that.

    Remember how “Metroid: The Other M” failed to sell a lot under a short period of time? This blog spoke about it, an someone even answered someone’s claim of the “Gaming community” as those who bought 2 million copies of “Black Ops” in a day, not Nintendo’s. Nintendo will always been known as a “kiddies” or a “family” company, as my friends called them, if the makers of the Wii 2 insist on going for pro-Nintendo features and games. Not many grown-ups wanna play Mario or LoZ forever.

  16. Wow, this guy is really dumb… As if the Wii is a success thanks to third party support. Zelda and Mario is all that is needed.

  17. That’s right Pachter, because when Nintendo saw that they were losing popularity in America, getting criticized for a lack of 3rd party games and lack of decent graphics, they automatically said “We must be doing everything right, when we make our next console we won’t change anything. Because we are not people who learn from their mistakes.”

    When the iDevices started getting all the casual portable games, Nintendo realized that they couldn’t compete in that market anymore, so they directed the 3DS at “hardcore” gamers. Nintendo make brash decisions sometimes (crappy graphics, crappy online, etc.), but they do watch what’s going on in the gaming world and do know how to learn from their mistakes.

    My point is that I think the Wii 2 IS going to have high quality graphics, not because Sony and Microsoft have them, but because consumers have complained about it. They are also gonna try to drum up 3rd party support again because they know they need it.

    Nintendo doesn’t live under a rock, they just do things their own way.

  18. Ummm… why is anyone still listening to this guy again? Has he forgotten that Nintendo were/are the pioneers with motion control, touch/dual screen, portability, AND 3D? Granted, the Wii could use better graphics fort most games, but that is not the selling point. It’s not, “Look at how pretty we can make pictures look!” Rather, it’s, “Look at how fun this game is!” After all, they are video GAMES. I would’ve liked to haber played

  19. Sorry, posting from phone and it sent early.

    Anyways, I would’ve liked to have played Assassin’s Creed and a couple others, but now I have a PC to support those games.

    And yes, they are family oriented, but is that really such a bad thing, to have games that the whole family can enjoy verses just maybe one or two, alone, playing by themselves without interacting with the rest of the family? And they do still have games that are geared more towards adults, but again, they focus on making them FUN, not mature.

    If my husband and I ever get another console, it’ll be the PS3, but now that we have a good PC, I don’t see that happening. I may be a little biased as I have grown up with almost every Nintendo system but the GameCube (couldn’t afford it at the time), but I also have thr PS2, which I still play occasionally as I do my older NES, SNES and N64 systems. But just sayin’, I work at GameStop and time and time again people try and trade in their red-ringed 360 (which we dont take, by the way).

    All-in-all, I’m with Nintendo all the way, and you can be sure that I’m getting whatever they dish out next for a home console the day it comes out.

  20. Doesn’t this guy contradict himself left and right on a weekly basis? I swear, one minute he’s praising something and the next he contradicts his own praise.

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  22. While Pachter is very much a mixed bag when it comes to predictions, I suspect he’s on the money here – the Wii’s audience is made up of two very different halves – around 20-30 million (worldwide) of hardcore Ninty fans (the types posting in this thread) and the rest are casuals, enticed in by the lure of a new, interactive family game.

    The core fans will, of course, snap up the next Ninty console, just like the core MS and Sony fans will be all over the next offering from those two. However, to strike lightning twice they need to lure the casuals in again. It’s notoriously difficult to do this two generations in a row, and this time they’ll be up against Kinect (which has clearly captured the imagination of a lot of casuals – compare 360 sales to ‘core’ 360 game sales and its obvious that the 360 has a new, casual component to its audience) and the PS3 (which, while the Move hasn’t had the same casual impact as the Kinect, the PS3 can still now satisfy the casual gaming element to the 40+ million households worldwide that it’s in).

    So, for Ninty to have the same level of success, it’s going to need to find a new gimmick (motion’s been done, 3D’s already covered off in the home console space and is unlikely to be a big deal anyway) that is equally successful as motion, but also relatively cheap and accessible. While there are a lot of clearly irate Ninty fans complaining about Pachters prediction, I personally doubt there’s anything out there that will enable Ninty to capture the ‘swinging’ casual audience as successfully next gen as it has this one. This isn’t knocking Ninty’s products, just the fickleness of a large portion of the Wii’s userbase.

  23. Nintendo started the home console revolution and the handheld revelation as well. Don’t underestimate Nintendo, they’re veterans. Besides, Nintendo rules Japan, and Japan is the home of gaming. As long as they’ve got hold of Japan, nothing can stop them. You “new borns” who came into the world just yesterday need to remember where your roots came from. Atari and those guys deserve their respect, but Nintendo was the first to REALLY kick off the gaming industry . Don’t think for a second that they can’t finish what they started.

  24. This guy is so godd@mn illogical. His face must be stapled to Sony’s @ss, or something. He does nothing but degrade and insult Nintendo. It sounds like pure, sheer jealousy to me. I mean, are people really that retarded? If you want your Wii in HD so bad, there’s cords you can buy that will do so, last I checked! If he was a REAL gamer, he would play the game for FUN, not for the oh so glorious “pixel perfect graphics”. seriously, Sony fan boys, if you want your pretty little graphics so bad, go see it in a movie, and stop ruining gaming as we know it. You know, it’s funny, I used to loathe Microsoft a lot more than Sony, but ever since the envious trash talk Sony has bestowed, they’ve been the biggest dicks on the planet. They really need to get a life, get laid, step outside, or go do something right for once in their lives!

    1. Ninty makes great games, but it’s a bit narrow-minded to think that the greater processing power is all spent on graphics. You just can’t do the physics of GT5, or the 256-player experience at once of MAG on anything other than something of X360/PS3 calibre hardware – ie, you can’t have those experiences on the Wii at the moment. As time is going by, there are more gameplay experiences you just can’t do on the Wii, irrespective of the graphics involved, because of the complexity of the physics or the amount of stuff going on at once. And I haven’t even touched on online.

      Another thing to keep in mind is that gaming is an audio-visual experience – music enthusiasts appreciate higher quality audio, and video enthusiasts appreciate higher quality pictures, because they impact upon the experience. Claiming that audio/visual quality (the PS3 and 360 have better audio as well ;)) doesn’t impact on an audio-visual experience is a bit of a stretch. That’s not to say that Metroid Prime: Corruption or Super Mario Galaxy aren’t awesome, but I honestly would have enjoyed both more in HD, with better quality audio (and more precise controls – and there’s no way even the most one-eyed Ninty fanboy would suggest that imprecise controls improve gameplay).

      Basically, to keep up with core gaming, Ninty needs to release another console. It doesn’t need to do this to keep the Ninty faithful happy, but the Ninty faithful aren’t 120 million plus worldwide (if the Wii doesn’t sell more than 120 million units plus before it’s retired, I’ll be a very surprised camper, and it may go much higher, depending if/when a sequel is released). If that sequel takes too long, then Ninty’s gaming products will be considered archaic in the eyes of all but the Ninty faithful. I’m not dissing Ninty games here, they’re clearly great or there wouldn’t be a Ninty faithful in the first place, but market reality is that Ninty needs a new hook for their next console to not be another N64/Gamecube (which were great pieces of kit – I still have a Cube, and prefer it to the Wii) in terms of market share.

  25. Well reggie said the wii 2 wont be talked about until it sold 45 million wiis in the US. Well yahoo news announced that the wii sold over 40 million wiis in the US. So does that mean reggie was basically hinting at a launch in 2012 or sooner. I am expecting an announcement at E3 this year talking about nintendos next system which i dont think will be called the wii 2 but something else. I dont think it will fail though that is the dumbest thing ive ever heard. The 3ds is already outperforming the wii in preorders. so i wouldnt doubt that nintendo could come out with something amazing for its next gen console.

  26. Just face it!
    The ds and the wii were two awesome gaming systems!!!! the 3ds will probably be even better.
    Wii2!!!!!!!!!!! FTW!!!!!!!!!.

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