Outspoken games industry analyst Michael Pachter believes that Nintendo’s successor to the immensely popular Wii won’t be able to compete against Sony and Microsoft’s future offerings, especially if they can’t entice third party developers on-board.
“Nintendo can’t let Microsoft have a 20 million install base of next-gen consoles and they’re still in the last generation,” said Pachter on Bonus Round. “I’ve been vilified during the last couple of weeks for saying that. I said in ’08 [the Wii HD] was coming, because I really thought the time was right […] 2010, I think, was the absolute last Christmas they could afford to wait. They had to do it and they didn’t. Now, I think it’s too late.”
“Clearly, any of the three console manufacturers can advance the technology to the next level and have facial recognition, have Milo that actually works, that kind of stuff. I mean, they could do it, but do you think any of the third parties are gonna support that?”
“I don’t see EA, who’s barely profitable, saying: ‘We had such a great experience with the Wii last time, we’re gonna dedicate $500 million of R&D to make facial recognition stuff.’ It ain’t gonna happen.”
“So without third-party support, I think the Wii 2, if it’s truly a revolutionary device, will fail,” Pachter said. “I think they boxed themselves in. No matter what they do, it won’t be as successful as the Wii.”
– Michael Pachter, Wedbush Morgan