Pachter Admits He Was Wrong About Nintendo 3DS Pricing, 3DS Will Never Catch Nintendo DS

Famed industry analyst Michael Pachter has sat down with Eurogamer to discuss the Nintendo 3DS. Pachter admitted in the interview that he was wrong about the original price point being the right price point but believes that the system has a rosy future ahead of it.

“It’s very successful, but ran into a headwind given its relatively high price – which I incorrectly thought was the right price – and lack of third party software support.”

“Now that we are seeing more first party titles at a lower price point, sales have increased. It’s definitely turned the corner.”

“I was surprised that it sold so few at the $249 price point, and its sales to date are exactly what I originally forecasted at that price.”

EEDAR VP Jesse Divnich was also interviewed by the publication and stated that he isn’t convinced that the Nintendo 3DS will achieve Nintendo DS level sales, but admits that any console would find it difficult to do so.

All three agreed that it’s unlikely the system will manage to catch the DS’s lifetime total, which currently sits at around 150 million worldwide.

“I think anything catching the Nintendo DS will be incredibly difficult.”

“The key to catching the Nintendo DS would be appealing to the ultra-casual consumers, those who originally bought the Nintendo DS for games like Brain Age and Sudoku, which are now prevalent and cheaper on other platforms – tablets and mobile.

“But I don’t believe topping DS sales is Nintendo’s goal for the 3DS. Their goal, however, is to create a sustainable and healthy third-party environment which, as I alluded to earlier, means having high software attach rates that are generally driven by the core audience.”

 


88 thoughts on “Pachter Admits He Was Wrong About Nintendo 3DS Pricing, 3DS Will Never Catch Nintendo DS”

          1. In a nintendo/apple world… the wii u’s controller would be more similar to an ipad… we’d all be playing skyward sword on our ipads!

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          2. I love Apple and Nintendo, but even I would never want a merger between the two… eventually, Apple would consume Nintendo entirely as they have much more money.

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      1. KILL THE FRENCH GUY and all the mexicans, me ois? HIJOS DE PUTA GORILAS DE MIERDA IROS A COMENTAR A VUESTRO PUTO PAIS LLENO DE MIERDA

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    1. If you want to read blind biased opinions goo somewhere else, i personally think Sickr has a great balance of news on his page, we get updates everyday.
      The page is called ‘My nintendo news’ for a reason. So we can hear about any kind of news related to nintendo, Pachter is quite important as well, his opinion can influence investors to part with their money. In saying that the Nintendo 3ds has a rosey future, you should be pleased, not angry.

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  1. I must admid im in the same mind with patcher ,nintendo just have ti look forward,nut just to break ds sales also hae more 3 party …..the other things comes by itself

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      1. The DS had a killer game line-up after it’s first year. The 3DS? well, still waiting on those games after 9 months. Sure there are some good titles here and there, but only a handful are original titles and not ports in some way.

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      2. Thats what i think too,also as someone alse posted nintendo doesnt have those “killer games” jut 3–4 of them…..and still it sold 4.000.000 units ……imagine what will hapen if those killer game are relased!!!

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  2. The 3DS will Beat the DS line Why? Games. one thing DS didnt really have is the hardcore 3rd party support but still had a tremendous 3rd party support. That will change . anyways we have yet to see a new pokemon game(or remake), smash bros game and many more so as far as im concered the 3DS is just getting warmed up.

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    1. No, it had that too. What it didn’t have was… actually, it had everything. Like the PS2, it’s an amazingly well rounded console. You could live for a decade with nothing but a DS and a PS2 and their libraries, and still not have gone through all the good games.

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      1. i see the DS as the ps1 and the 3DS as the ps2 and thats a pretty good analogy which is why 3DS will be more succesful than the DS

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        1. That is a terrible analogy! The PS2 sold like gangbusters and was incredibly difficult to get a hold of for the first year or two. The 3DS is so easy to get I could buy 20 at my local GameStop right now if I wanted to. That, and Sony didn’t have to drop the PS2’s price in the first six months just to move units like Nintendo did. They were selling so well there was no need to do so. The PS2 sold close to a million units, IN JAPAN ALONE.
          Finally, the PS2 launched with a metric f*** ton of stellar A list and F list games. I mean, look at this:
          Armored Core 2 (Agetec, Action)
          DOA2: Hardcore (Tecmo, Fighting)
          Dynasty Warriors 2 (Koei, Action)
          ESPN International Track and Field (Konami, Sports)
          ESPN X-Games Snowboarding (Konami, Sports)
          Eternal Ring (Agetec, RPG)
          Evergrace (Agetec, RPG)
          FantaVision (SCEI, Puzzle)
          Gun Griffon Blaze (Working Designs, Action)
          Kessen (EA, Adventure)
          Madden NFL 2001 (EA, Sports)
          Midnight Club (Rockstar, Racing)
          Moto GP (Namco, Racing)
          NHL 2001 (EA, Sports)
          Orphen (Activision, RPG)
          Q-Ball Billiards Master (Take-Two Interactive, Simulation)
          Ready 2 Rumble Boxing: Round 2 (Midway, Sports)
          Ridge Racer V (Namco, Racing)
          Silent Scope (Konami, Shooter)
          Smuggler’s Run (Rockstar, Racing-Adventure)
          SSX (EA, Sports)
          Street Fighter EX3 (Capcom, Fighting)
          Summoner (THQ, RPG)
          Swing Away (Paradise Golf in Japan) (EA, Sports)
          Tekken Tag Tournament (Namco, fighting)
          TimeSplitters (Eidos, First-Person Shooter)
          Unreal Tournament (Infogrames, First-Person Shooter)
          Wild Wild Racing (Interplay, Racing)
          X-Squad (EA, Action)

          And what did the 3DS launch with?:

          : Super Street Fighter IV (Capcom),
          The Sims 3 (EA),
          Madden NFL Football (EA Sports),
          Pro Evolution Soccer 2011 3D (Konami),
          Lego Star Wars III: The Clone Wars (LucasArts),
          Ridge Racer 3D (Namco Bandai),
          Super Monkey Ball 3D (Sega),
          Bust-A-Move Universe (Square Enix)
          , Samurai Warriors: Chronicles (Tecmo Koei),
          Asphalt 3D (Ubisoft),
          Combat of Giants: Dinosaurs 3D (Ubisoft),
          Rayman 3D (Ubisoft)
          Tom Clancy’s Ghost Recon Shadow Wars (Ubisoft).

          Please, please, PLEASE, do not compare the 3DS to the PS2. It’s just an unfair fight.

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            1. The hell?!!? I own a Wii and bought, and still own a 3DS, i bought noth the day they came out thank you very much. I of course an part of Nintendo Ambassador program, so i would call myself a fan of Nintendo. You see that word: Fan. Not fanboy. My commenta aren’t clouded with over zealous emotions for Nintendo’s recent poor decisions. And yeah, comparing the 3DS launch to the PS2’s launch is a set up to point out not Nintendo’s failures. Of anything, sir, learn better debate skills as opposed to calling someone a “fag”.

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            2. How is he a Sony fanboy? Everything he said was true. It doesn’t mean he dislikes Nintendo, it just means he can see flaws in stuff he still enjoys

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      2. There wasn’t actually an abundance of good games for the DS, I enjoyed games like Picross 3D, TWEWY, and Mario but shovel-ware games kind of took over.

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  3. Once again, everyday logic. Seriously, I’d be afraid if these guys do this for a living… if it were a secondary hobby or something then so be it, but if these guys are living off the money of these “predictions” a kid in primary school can figure out gets them, then it’s a very, very sad economy we live in today. People with masters find it hard to find work while these guys live it big off of predictions followed by them “admitting” they were wrong. How does that help anyone?

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    1. God damn, it’s not like he goes to these interviews and gets slipped a quarter million under the table for spewing random bullshit. He gets paid to analyze market trends and make educated guesses as to how these trends will play out in the future. His job is important to people who are wondering how/in what to invest. Being wrong comes with the job, since really there’s no way to ever be 100% sure of any given situation in this business.

      He’s adjusting his initial claims, just as he should. He is reanalyzing to better serve the people who listen to him.

      And he has his master’s, dumbass.

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      1. If having a masters in analytics involves being wrong half the time, then I fear for the educational system as well.

        And that’s exactly the problem you idiot! People invest based on this man’s claims, when most of the time they’re god damn wrong! He claims consoles will be discontinued, that they’ll “fail”, that certain companies won’t last another generation. These are predictions stock holders invest millions for, or remove millions (and later lose possible millions when the stocks continue to go up, instead of down like Pachter stated).

        Getting paid to make “educated guesses” and “analyze market trends”? Isn’t that the point of my comment? That that’s a messed up profession? That his job is completely worthless half the time, and the other half is simply things he “knows” from sales figures no one else has (which is an argument for another day).

        Good lord man, your comment is half filled with contradictions and things I refuted in my ORIGINAL COMMENT. The other half is just a load of BS.

        “He’s adjusting… him.” What the hell man? Are you that close-minded? “Adjusting his initial claims” doesn’t help investors, it leads them to lose money.

        “His job is important to people who are wondering how/in what to invest.” Oh really? Could you sincerely tell me that you’d be willing to remove your investment or make one based on Pachter’s comments? Right now? I mean this with all sincerity, but I wouldn’t bet a penny on his comments. In fact, as long as I believe otherwise, I’d bet against his comments.

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      1. Don’t be so sure. Japan is a big market. In Japan so have the 3DS already sold half as much as PS3 has done during it’s entire lifetime…

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  4. Now we just need Pachter to admit that he’s been wrong about everything else he’s said, and I’ll maybe start to like him. Maybe.

    In all seriousness though, I strongly dislike Pachter, as his “predictions” tend to lean towards wishful thinking, just like his old “prediction” that Nintendo was going to release a Wii HD in 2009 or 2010.

    I do agree with him on one thing though, and that’s the 3DS will never catch the 150 million DS sales. However, stranger things have happened, and it’s common wisdom to never discount Nintendo on anything.

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  5. Where is Pachter’s butt-boy from previous comments?

    The one saying that Pachter made a lot of money because he’s a professional and is right most of the time? Well here he’s eating shit because even he admits he was wrong about something. Don’t think he’ll take a cut in pay though, because his job is a joke.

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        1. The number of sales between the two are not an indicator of which serves the regular gamer better, given the large casual customer base who bought them.

          This one compitent statement certainly doesn’t correct his many lother downright embarassing bloopers, but one mention of the iPhone/iPad’s popularity doesn’t mean this comment is “Nintendo bashing.”

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  6. If Pachter can correctly date the end of the world, then I’ll believe him. But sadly after it actually happens, Pachter (and the rest of the world) will be dead and will not be able to make anymore guesses. I mean “predictions.”

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  7. Pachter admits he was wrong? Wow, that’s a first. Maybe he’ll admit the other 99 thousand times he was wrong in the past as well.

    Sorry, but he’s been wrong so often it baffles me why people even listen to him any more.

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    1. Please see most recent new zelda concert location replies section for some relevant comments and questions desireing answers. PLEASE SEE AND REPLY, where my ninjas at?

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  8. So, how much wrong do you have to have before losing this job/your reputation as an analyst? After all, this guy is STILL convinced that the Vita will outsell the 3DS… *COUGH, COUGH, COOOUGH*

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    1. He can be wrong as many times possible, probably. His job is like a weatherman’s. Wait Peterriuss, if you’re reading this, tell me what your email adress is so I can be your friend on FB.

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  9. It looks like I’m a bit late to join in the conversation; but regardless I wanted to point out a few things. Reading all of these comments bashing Pachter with little to no hard evidence to backup why you think his claims are so outrageous, while reading other comments with at least some evidence or analysis as to why they agree to some extent with his claims is giving me a bit of insight as to why some people consider Nintendo fan people to be the least mature. No offense intended. If everyone could just step back from everything for a minute and look at a few things, I think it could really be beneficial for everyone here.

    “All three agreed that it’s unlikely the system will manage to catch the DS’s lifetime total…”
    This is a point many of you seem to really have a problem with, but honestly what evidence can you show that will prove to anyone that the 3DS will definitely catch or, as I’ve read, “sell a fuck load more than ds”? Sure it may be selling better than the DS so far, but I completely agree with Pachter that the 3DS will not capture the casual market like the DS did. I know plenty of people who owned a DS but are not gamers by any means, and now they have android phones, or iphones, or whatever and those platforms offer up just as much entertainment for them as the DS did. From an extreme casual gamer’s standpoint, I can see absolutely no benefit of having a 3DS over a smartphone. Both are capable of delivering a performance to suffice them, and the smartphone has the added capability of being a phone, an organizer, a navigation system, and a near limitless array of other things. One of the biggest reasons the DS sold so well was because of this casual market, and I am certain in my opinion that the 3DS will not capture this market.

    I honestly don’t see myself ever buying a 3DS, I have DS which has loads of games that look interesting to me, and I’d rather save the money from a 3DS purchase and put it towards a Wii U. I wouldn’t be surprised if this is the case with many people because at least, for now, the 3DS has only a few games which look interesting, but none that I really am dying to play.

    This is getting really long, so I’m not going to say much more as I’ve voiced the main thing I wanted to voice, however I also wanted to put some input in on all of this mindless hatred of Pachter. Now, mind me, this is the first I’m ever hearing of him or of his opinions so I have no knowledge about his accuracy or claims from the past, but regardless many of you seem to mindlessly throw hate towards him, even when his claims, at least in terms of this set, are fairly plausible and possible. You all are constantly throwing around how “idiotic” and “stupid” and blah blah blah he is, but you never seem to say why. Well, sometimes you claim he shouldn’t be paid for this, and etc. So on that point, it seems many of you have absolutely no understanding of the job of a market analyst. All he is asked to do is look at raw data, trends, patterns, figures, market climate, market cycle stage, etc. and create an educated guess based on those things alone. It’s as if you gave a computer all of these factors, and someone had written a simulator that could spit out some predictions based on them. He is acting as that computer, and is giving out his calculated figures. So regardless of how inaccurate they may end up being, that is not a indication of his ability to accurately do his job. He is simply analyzing this as raw data and giving out his results. If you don’t agree with him, fine. If you want to be belittling towards his opinions and outspoken in a rather unruly fashion about your opinions of his opinions, then by all means go learn how to do his job correctly and do it yourself and we’ll see what kind of figures you come up with. But sitting here and blindly accusing him of being and idiot for reasons which I have yet to fully comprehend, is rather childish and really makes you, and the other Nintendo fan people look quite immature to the rest of the gaming sphere.

    There were probably some other points I wanted to make but this is taking up way too much time for what it’s wroth.. So I’ll leave it at this.

    Whew. Rant over. If you actually read through all of that, I commend you. Have a nice day! :)

    Btw, Sickr regardless of what these other people say I find these kinds of articles quite interesting, so when you have more keep them coming. :)

    ~Manowar203

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    1. Get out Pachter!
      No, joking :P

      Really interesting and I totally agree. A lot of people here make us look immature, but I do that myself sometimes too.
      So to all and myself: grow up!

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    2. You do forget to mention all the 3rd part games that will help the 3DS to catch a new group of people and there’s not even a Zelda or Pokémon game for the 3DS yet, when they come I’m pretty sure it will sell very much. It might actually be able to sell as good as the DS when I don’t see Smartphones as a concurent in this bussiness. Smartphone games are some done, they offer little contant for the money they cost.

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  10. It’s never about Pachter being right or wrong. It’s about his analysis and reasoning to justify why something could and couldn’t work. Right or wrong, he probably knows more insider information about the industry than you or I.

    It’s good to know that the system will have a “rosy future” :)

    Like

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