Nintendo

Analysts Predict Nintendo’s Moves In 2016

It is nearing the end of the year so it’s time for the video game analysts to deliver their verdicts regarding what they believe will happen in 2016. We know for a fact that Nintendo is going to talk about their next platform which is codenamed NX in 2016. When it’s going to be released is a different story entirely with some predicting next year and others thinking that it will be a 2017 launch. Anyway, here’s what the analysts think Nintendo will do next year.

“Nintendo’s first mobile “game” will flop. Miitomo will get 100 million downloads, so it will be a “success” in terms of users, but it will drop out of the top 100 grossing games on iOS and Android by year-end 2016. I think people will try it, but don’t think they’ll find social chat compelling enough to spend money. In my opinion, Miitomo offers little that isn’t already widely available on Facebook; younger consumers not on Facebook will probably find it appealing, but they typically have little or no access to credit, so Nintendo will have trouble monetizing Miitomo.”

“Nintendo’s second mobile game will be a resounding success. I actually think Miitomo is intended to be a platform that allows people to create a personalized image/character and use it in other Nintendo games. I am hopeful that the second effort is something more familiar, such as a Super Mario platformer. If so, I think the game will attract 200 million downloads and will be a top 20 (or possibly top 10) grossing game on both iOS and Android.”

“The NX won’t come out in 2016. Nintendo has a history of announcing consoles in one year and launching the next, and I don’t see the NX as deviating from that pattern.”

– Michael Pachter

“One thing that the modest performance of the Wii U has shown Nintendo is that a platform needs a significant selling point beyond Nintendo IP to gain third-party support and mainstream adoption. The Wii brought motion gaming to the masses and enjoyed breakout success, but the Wii U’s half-baked console/handheld approach failed to drive the same level of consumer interest. Nintendo’s press announcements, early rumors, Nintendo’s continued support of the handheld market, and the lack of a full commitment of Nintendo premier IP into mobile suggests that Nintendo will likely try to merge the console and handheld markets in the NX. Support for multiple handhelds is likely, considering Nintendo’s broader handheld strategy of having multiple handheld devices in a single household.”

-Patrick Walker, EEDAR

“While Nintendo is relatively late to fully embrace remote connected gaming and commerce, I believe Nintendo’s new network and hardware will deliver an evolved multiplayer gameplay experience. NX will rightly be positioned as a system and network separate from Wii U and 3DS. 3DS will remain a thriving system for a number of years. Although Nintendo will sell more Wii U hardware as more highly anticipated franchises become available for the system next year, the system has lagged too far behind the competition to remain viable for most third-party publishers and should be managed accordingly. NX may be released this year, but Nintendo would be wise to delay launch until a number of quality launch titles are ready to ship.”

– Billy Pidgeon, independent analyst

“In 2016, the headlines will be dominated with news about Nintendo with all kinds of unconfirmed reports about a new system. At the end of the day Nintendo will finally learn from past mistakes and reveal very little of its plans. DFC Intelligence predicts that a new Nintendo console system will not launch in 2016 as Nintendo learns from past mistakes and focuses on getting many developers on board with top-end content for a stellar launch.”

– David Cole, DFC Intelligence

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40 comments

  1. “I am hopeful that the second effort is something more familiar, such as a Super Mario platformer.”
    This fucking guy.
    Read the news, Patcher.

    It is interesting that they all think that a 2017 launch is the way to go. Yeah, attractive launch titles would do wonders for the console, but if the rumors about it performance capabilities are true, the NX needed to be out yesterday.

    1. Why listen to rumors? the first said that it was less powerful than the PS4, the next one that it was WAY more powerful than the PS4 and XBO and the new one that is on par with the XBO and this rumors also speak of stuff like “Nintendo will possibly talk about NX in this recent conference” or “Possible announcement in VGA 2015” even though Nintendo said that they wouldn’t reveal/talk about the console until E3 2016 or don’t give a confirmation at all, that plus the fact that they are starting to learn how to avoid leakers (if the Smash announcement are something to go by), it pretty much shows that as of now, ANY rumor about Nintendo is unreliable and should be ignored.

      1. “Why listen to rumors?”
        Why are you here?

        “the first said that it was less powerful than the PS4, the next one that it was WAY more powerful than the PS4 and XBO and the new one that is on par with the XBO ”
        Since dev kits change over time, all might have been true at some point.

        “even though Nintendo said that they wouldn’t reveal/talk about the console until E3 2016”
        Publicly ≠ privately

        “it pretty much shows that as of now, ANY rumor about Nintendo is unreliable and should be ignored.”
        You do your thing, I’ll do mine.

        1. The question shouldn’t be why am I here, but WHY am I talking to you, after all, all you do is to “quote” me taking fragments of a full idea and try to piece it apart since you apparently can’t respond to a full statement.

          1. “The question shouldn’t be why am I here, but WHY am I talking to you”
            I agree. You are welcome to stop replying to me anytime.

            I’m quoting you in points because your post lacks structure and I need to tackle each point one by one. Organize your ideas better if you don’t want me to separate them for you.

              1. And I replied to it. If you can’t paste my sentences in a more interlinked paragraph, oh, well. I’m not willing to spend the extra effort of typing a well-redacted reply to you. To another person, maybe, but not to you.

                1. You? A well redacted reply? Since when do you do that?, all you do is respond almost immediately to anything that doesn’t agree with you and belittle them thinking that it will make them go away, or do I have to remind you that I was the last time you tried to do that I literally annoyed you to the point that you now prefer to avoid me like the plague? Or do I also have to remind you that if I were a troll I would literally attack any comment you do (which i don’t), but instead I will tell you this:

                  1.- Don’t you ever try to attack me or any Venezuelan, you’ll never win (evidence: https://twitter.com/search?q=%23BackToBackEsVenezolano&src=tyah ).

                  2.- If one day you decide to have a nice conversation or even debate to see how different our ideas can be and still coexist, you are welcome to, I’ll be waiting for you.

                  1. You have a very twisted version of reality. I constantly make well-redacted and well-thought replies to the people that deserve them. An example: my posts in the XCX review and the arguments that surfaced then.

                    Just because I don’t care about my replies to you doesn’t mean I treat everyone equally. Far from it. I just don’t like investing time replying to you because you get way too invested in your little internet fights.

                    “or do I have to remind you that I was the last time you tried to do that I literally annoyed you to the point that you now prefer to avoid me like the plague?”
                    This is a perfect example. Do you think you are such a vital piece of my life that I need to actively avoid you? Because that’s a very simplistic and egocentric attitude there.

                    “1.- Don’t you ever try to attack me or any Venezuelan, you’ll never win”
                    What the hell has this to do with anything? I didn’t reply to you. You actively came into this thread, saw my post and then replied to me. How am I attacking you in any way?

                    “2.- If one day you decide to have a nice conversation or even debate to see how different our ideas can be and still coexist, you are welcome to, I’ll be waiting for you.”
                    I said it before and I’ll say it again: no. I have zero interest in debating anything with you. You are not included in the list of people I am willing to have a calm talk with. I hope that clears thing up.

                    1. You’ve never had a nice talk with anyone, most (if not all) of your conversations always devolve to a “I’m right and You’re wrong” discussion, including this one.

                      You prefer to call me egocentric or that I invest myself too much in an Internet fight because you will not admit that you also do the same thing (I’ve seen your comments whenever censorship appears, and you get even more “committed” than me, or are you going to justify your actions because you think you’re better than anyone?).

                      And even still, you say that you don’t want to have a conversation with me, and I believe you, after all, you never have a conversation, you prefer to impose your way of thinking and see anything different than yours as ignorant, which is what common trolls do BTW.

                      I am really enjoying this, for a moment I thought I was going to dread this, but now I’ve remembered how much fun I can have talking to you.

                    2. Literally from today: http://mynintendonews.com/2015/12/23/rumour-nintendo-nx-to-be-as-powerful-as-xbox-one-and-showcased-privately-at-ces-2016/comment-page-1/#comment-2441060

                      Again, you are seeing what you want to see here.

                      “you will not admit that you also do the same thing”
                      I’m not trying to force you into a conversation.

                      “(I’ve seen your comments whenever censorship appears, and you get even more “committed” than me, or are you going to justify your actions because you think you’re better than anyone?).”
                      Not getting back into that argument for your amusement, sorry. All you have to know is that, from my perspective, you can never be in the right when defending censorship, and not ‘because I said so’ or whatever you think I’m saying here.

                      “And even still, you say that you don’t want to have a conversation with me”
                      Yet you seem to be extremely decided about having one with me. What is it that you have with me, some kind of love-hate relationship?

                      “now I’ve remembered how much fun I can have talking to you.”
                      Never mind, you answered yourself. This is the last time I’m replying to you, definitively.

                    3. You think I don’t read the news? is exactly for that kind of rumors that I’m saying that we should ignore them.

                      I’m not forcing you into a conversation either, you always had the choice to answer me and boy oh boy, you did.

                      I never defended censorship, I defended the decision of the creators of doing whatever they wanted (that I confused that with censorship back then, that’s a different matter) while you (and many others) wanted to force them to do whatever YOU wanted, because what good is there to say that we should defend the creators to do whatever they want when it’s only whenever it is convenient to us? that’s hypocritical.

                      I also enjoyed this conversation, I’m really eager to have the next one with you.

      2. One correction, Nintendo has never said that they will reveal/talk about NX until E3 2016. All they said was they will talk about the NX in 2016. They have not said when but have said the year they will talk about it.

          1. “As proof that Nintendo maintains strong enthusiasm for the dedicated game system business”, Iwata adds, “let me confirm that Nintendo is currently developing a dedicated game platform with a brand new concept under the development codename ‘NX’.”

            And…that’s it. Iwata says Nintendo will share more information about the new hardware “next year”.

            http://kotaku.com/nintendos-next-console-is-code-named-the-nintendo-nx-1691867268

    2. I was sort of agreeing with you, then you went all over the place.

      If the NX is actually a home console, then I don’t expect a 2016/2017 release date. Maybe late 2017.

      And rumors of performance capabilities? Are you talking ab out those people who came out and spoke after watching Nintendo Tech demos?

      Those are not rumors. Nintendo really has something up their sleeve that is performing better than modern PCs. This is fact. Many sources can confirm they’re showing this tech demo off in private sessions.

      Now that absolutely doesn’t mean that this tech demo is for the NX. Infact, the tech demo could literally be for a dead end. We don’t know. Time will tell.

      1. “Nintendo really has something up their sleeve that is performing better than modern PCs. This is fact.”
        If this is fact, then I’ll gladly have some proof. I’d love to be proven wrong, believe me.

        Other than that, remember that Zelda tech demo for Wii U? Tech demos are completely unreliable. Even if it is for the NX, I don’t think it really says anything about the final product. Then again, you can do that with anything that supports one possibility or the other, so time will tell, as you say.

  2. I’m just hoping the NX will be a breakout success like the Wii was but with less gimmicks and more of a hardcore gaming approach. Nintendo has to compete on all levels to make themselves more relevant and I think even they know that now

    1. It’s Nintendo.

      I think especially since they’ve been telling us the NX is an experience that isn’t common, we need to be ready for some bullsh!t gimmick.

      But honestly, the only gimmick I want is for the NX to have a companion handheld sold separate.

      Slimmer and similar to the Wii U’s gamepad, I’d hope this handheld for the NX would not only be optional (like the PsVita to the Ps4) but could also support FULL remote play. Meaning as long as the NX is connected to a Ethernet/Wifi network, and the NX handheld is connected to Wifi, then the NX (and hopefully Wii U because no doubt it’ll be backwards compatible) games can be streamed anywhere.

      Oops, got a little off topic. But yeah, that’s the gimmick dream I want.

      I’m afraid they’re going to experiment with us again

  3. 2016 will probably have a string of mobile announcements, some sort of ambassador program for their new rewards program based on what you own, NX E3 treatment, possibly NX launch titles, MHX announcement and possible release, news about their dealings with Universal parks, possibly a definitive Wii U finalizing price drop closer to the second half of 2016, final big Wii U announcements, amiibos out the ass, miiverse update to correlate with miitomo, and more DLC in nintendo games across the board.

    Das is what I think’ll happen.

  4. I feel like the NX should be “announced” sometime in the early spring before E3, then during E3 they should show off some of the games that will be released (or coming soon after) with the launch of the NX. Then over the summer they should sprinkle in a few trailers for games here and there, and finally release the NX during the fall.

    1. No, E3 is the best moment to reveal it, everybody will be waiting for it, E3 it’s the moment when most companies shows their best cards and just by starting with the NX Nintendo can take over the whole E3 and have the rest of the world hyped for the rest of the year.

    2. By saving the console AND games reveal for E3, however, they can steal the spotlight from whatever the competition is showing.
      Then again, these would be the things to do if Nintendo was any clever about their products, and I don’t know about you, but I’m not holding them to that standard. Hopefully Kimishima will prove me wrong.

      1. Honestly, I think that an E3 reveal would be great as well, but there is always the off chance that the NX will just end up being a huge flop, which would give Nintendo another E3 failure under their belt. If the console is announced in early spring and it sucks, then it sucks. But if it’s announced in early spring and it is everything we’ve been wanting from Nintendo, then it would generate even more hype for the actual games at E3.

        Either way, it all just depends on how good the NX will end up being.

        1. Yeah, agreed. Sadly, I don’t think the console being good grants sells, so we’ll have to see what Nintendo does at the end. I’m slightly optimistic, though.

  5. “I am hopeful that the second effort is something more familiar, such as a Super Mario platformer.” When will Pachter, the Pathetic Oaf, get it through his thick skull, a Mario Platformer, Would sell well yes, but it would control like Sh*t on a Touch Screen. If he had just left it at “I am hopeful that the second effort is a more familiar franchise, such as Super Mario,” then I would be inclined to agree. But a Mario Platformer? Heck no.

  6. These idiots just don’t get it. Nintendo will never get full 3rd party support again. Not unless Nintendo forks over buckets of cash to each dev personally to make up the loss of their games NOT SELLING ON NINTENDO CONSOLES.

    1. What do you mean “Nintendo will never have full 3rd party support”? You ever heard of the 3ds? It was made by Nintendo, it has sold over 50 million units, and yes it has “full 3rd party support”. Developers are not biased against Nintendo. If they create a console that sells, 3rd party support will follow. So the question shouldn’t be will nintendo get 3rd party support. The question should be can Nintendo develop a console that can sell 60-100 million units…. And right now at least, they seem pretty confident in the NX…

  7. For arguments sake, didn’t Nintendo already “announce” the NX? They just haven’t revealed what the NX actually is. The moment they admitted to development of the NX, ( which they have done on several occasions) they have actually announced it. So if Nintendo announced the NX in early 2015, It seems a bit strange they would wait until 2017 to release it…. Nintendo made it clear they do not want to compete against the Ps4 and Xbox, however the fact remains that IS their competition. The longer they delay the NX, the stronger the install base of their competition gets..

    1. No, Iwata did not announce the NX. He made a statement that they were working on Code Name NX. It was not an announcement for the NX but reassurance from the mobile announcement.

  8. Pachter, Pachter, Pachter, Pachter, Pachter. Blah, Blah, Blah, Blah, I get paid to say the obvious. Miitomo will fail (duh) but that is what I get paid to say!
    SHUT UP ALREADY!!

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