Nintendo

Pachter Claims Nintendo Will Stay In Console Business “Until They Fail Completely”

Everyone’s favourite video game analyst Michael Pachter has shared some outspoken views about Nintendo and the company’s future during Pachter Factor. If you don’t really want to watch the video, the gist of the conversation revolves around whether it would be “financially smarter” for Nintendo to go third party, go full-time on mobile, or continue creating their own hardware. Well, as we already know they plan to continue making their own hardware as the Nintendo NX is due to be revealed this year. He concluded by saying that Nintendo will continue making hardware “until they fail completely.”

“I think it really depends on what people expect software sales to be on the NX. You’re asking me to compare NX to a third-party strategy. If the NX is as successful as the Wii U, it makes more sense for Nintendo to go third-party. If the NX is as successful as the Wii, then it doesn’t make sense.

“Nintendo sold about half of all software ever put out there for the Wii. There were literally 100 million Wiis, probably a software catch rate around 8, so Nintendo literally sold something like 400 million pieces of software for the Wii. That’s a very profitable business. If they have that success with the NX, of course they should do that.”

“If they go third-party, you’re talking about an install base around 55 million consoles. I think ultimately you will get an install base of 200 million PlayStation 4 and Xbox One, Nintendo will need a 20 percent share on those platforms to replicate the success it had with Wii. That’s possible, but it’s not likely.

“I do think once Nintendo decides one way or another, that will drive future purchase decisions from consumers. If Nintendo says ‘we’re going third-party all the time,’ a lot of Nintendo fanboys will buy an Xbox One or PS4 and I actually think Sony would do some interesting things with Nintendo. Because I think, both being Japanese companies, there’s just a lot of opportunities for those two to work together.

“I actually think you would see some really cool things on PS4. But, we’re speculating for speculation’s sake. I don’t think that’s going to happen, and I’m answering the question because you asked it.

“My bias is Nintendo is going to stay in the console business until they fail completely, and I don’t even think they consider the Wii U a failure. Failing completely means no one buys the console at all.

“Since we don’t know what the NX is, it’s kinda hard to make a forecast on what the sales levels will be. My guess is, it will sell more units than the Wii U. So, better than the Wii U, and that’s enough to keep Nintendo continuing to stay in the console business and as a first-party.”

Source / Via

120 comments

  1. There will always be the loyal, hardcore fans, that will buy the Consoles/Handhelds. I’m not going to do this whole ‘Consumer Loyalty’ thing. Never was a part of it, otherwise I would have asked for/bought the PS2, PS3 and PS4, as the PS1 was my first ever Video Game System. Sure, I’ve bought the Wii, 3DS and Wii U, but I’m still not a ‘Nintendo Loyalist.’

    The bigger question is, when will Pachter stop talking BS, and when he is right, it’s because he’s stated the obvious…

    1. If Nintendo goes 3rd poarty I won’t forgive them. I’ve waited decades since the gamecube for a proper console and if they leave for ‘profits’ they can fuck themselves. I’m a huge Nintendo fan, adn that’s impart to how much they have shaped the console and gaming industries. We ow alot to them. Will people finally realize how boring and un-innovative Sony is when they release the PS5? AND it’s the same thing just slightly better hardware? If Nintendo leaves hardware say hello to ps500, and XBOX 20, butchered PC 3rd party whores with no innovation or evolution for the gaming industry.

      1. >>>We will never surrender to anyone or anything, we created this universe and we will make sure everyone else falls if we fall>>>

      1. Well look who’s back, the self-racist cunt who can’t follow his own hypocrite advices and GTFO of his bottom dwellings to save his own stupid ass.

      2. Your lost in your ways you sad sad… Boy..

        The one formally known as Quadriaxis had one thing right,, your should of moved on when you had a chance. Your like the gf that brakes up with you but complains when you get a new gf and gets jealous and “cut happy”…

        I don’t hardly agree with him but he was right…

  2. Not gonna lie, as much shit as people here give him, he’s not wrong. It WOULD be smarter for a company to go third party for a larger install base. Doesn’t mean it is what they HAVE to do or what they SHOULD do.
    Also, if this is a picture of him, he’s got some damn good taste seeing games like Shin Megami Tensei: Nocturne.

    1. Well he didn’t actually say that, and dare I say that Pachter is actually more smart than you in this case. The point he was making was that first party is great if you can move the hardware, but if you don’t then third party is a better option. Here’s the thing – Mario Kart 8 would not be getting a 50%+ attach rate on PS4 and Xbox One. However, if it released on PS4 and Xbox One it would only need an attach rate of around 10% to get the same amount of sales. You’d think that a big name series like Mario Kart could do a lot better than that, and so you see that unless Nintendo are making loads of money off hardware sales (and they’re not) that this gen a third party option would have been more profitable than Wii U. However, as Pachter rightly says, a console that performs well would change this (and he thinks that means selling about 50 million units).

  3. Michael Patcher.. I may not like the man personally but everything he says here is completly true and anybody who thinks otherwise is a complete fucking fool…

    Yes he may be a captain obvious but the truth is the truth…

    If the NX fails,, Nintendo is done..

    Put a tag on their toe and bury them next to Iwata-San. If we see the NX tanking by fall of 2017, Nintendo will be more blue in the face than when Zelda found Robin. Patch wants to say that but can’t,,, I’ll say it for him.

    1. Jaded Professor Ridley Bowie X3 {R.I.P. David Bowie, the One & Only Goblin King! R.I.P. Alan Rickman, the Awesome Professor Snape!} says:

      You were doing okay til you had to go back to the Church of Sasorijects old trend of disrespecting the dead. Go back to being gone like that nostalgia_w loser.

      1. Jaded Professor Ridley Bowie X3 {R.I.P. David Bowie, the One & Only Goblin King! R.I.P. Alan Rickman, the Awesome Professor Snape!} says:

        Sasorijects. Hm. I like that! :D

  4. Jaded Professor Ridley Bowie X3 {R.I.P. David Bowie, the One & Only Goblin King! R.I.P. Alan Rickman, the Awesome Professor Snape!} says:

    No shit, Sherlocke! Want to tell us anything else that’s obvious, Captain Obvious?

  5. All Nintendo has to do is while NX is in R&D just think of 5 to 8 years ahead of what technology will be like. That way by the time it debuts it will have 3 yearsbefore aging.

  6. “You’ll be successful until you fail” – Pachter, 2016

    What a wise, wise man.

  7. “If the NX is as successful as the Wii U, it makes more sense for Nintendo to go third-party.”

    The Wii U may not have been nearly as successful as Nintendo hoped or expected, but we’re past the point where it started generating profit for Nintendo. As long as the system is generating profit can it really be considered a failure? As long as Nintendo makes a profit off their systems, even if it’s only a small amount, there is no reason for them to leave the business.

    1. Good point. But market share wise the Wii U performed poorly, and this is the unwanted legacy the U is leaving behind.

  8. Alot of people fail to realize just how much money Nintendo has, especially as a result of the original Wii.

    Despite being in the red for a while, Nintendo still has more than enough to get through. They could probably live through multiple failed consoles.

    1. As an analyst, he only cares about what companies do to keep themselves profitable. Sony and Microsoft do have problems, but even if they were to fail in the video games market, they both have something to fall back on. Microsoft has PC’s and software, and Sony has TV’s, blu-ray players, etc. If Nintendo fails in the video games market, they have nothing.

    2. >>>The creature Pachter is an agent of the Xbots and hardly attacks the Sonyans because it would be embarrassing for it to do so as the Sonyans are destroying the Xbots, that’s why>>>

  9. IF nintendo fails then they will close up shop, they have a thing called pride and will never go 3rd party, they tried that with arcades and well lets just say that they didn’t like it. im not a nintendo fanboy and defend every actions nintendo makes, if they do good then i praise them, if they do bad then i call them out. im hoping the nx is successful otherwise nx will be the last thing they do and we will never see nintendo again.

  10. I agree with most of what he said except for the part of Nintendo going 3rd party if the NX fails. It will never happen Pachter so get that out of your thick ass idiotic skull

  11. “If Nintendo says ‘we’re going third-party all the time,’ a lot of Nintendo fanboys will buy an Xbox One or PS4…”

    No way. I’ll live 100 years and will never see a Nintendo fanboy buying any box from Microsoft or Sony.

    (This applies for all fanboys from all companies, of course.)

      1. Yeah but I think Root is talking about the super dedicated blind Nintendo fanboys who will always support Nintendo no matter what. Although I do own a Wii U and a 3DS of course, I also have a Xbox One (that I’ll be soon trading for possibly a PS4 once Horizon Zero Dawn and Shenmue III come out but I’m not guaranteeing anything). I am a Nintendo fanboy but I’m not a blind one. If Nintendo is fucking up you best believe I’m going to call them out on it. There’s nothing wrong with people criticizing something or someone that they’re a fan of especially if it’s going to help that something or that someone get better

      2. Exactly, Paid. That was what I was talking about. I’m glad to know you have other console — I said this several times, but I enjoy my Xbox One a lot. Nothing compared to PS3 and 360, but it’s still a great home console.

      3. Getting f*cked multiple times triggers the healing process, Drybones! It’s clear what is cause, and what is consequence! XD

  12. No shit, and Nintendo will never go 3rd party, Sony or Microsoft is more likely to go 3rd party. Hell Microsoft already kinda is with most of their games being on PC to lol.

  13. Pachter once said the PS4 would fail.

    Some /analyst/ he is.

    Someone should take his job and replace him forever.

  14. He suggests he is an analyst from a fiscal standpoint, but then he talks numbers like a fanboy troll. Obviously install base matters, but one console not selling as well as the previous is just one part of the full picture. Notice how he ignores handheld? Ignores what Amiibo has done for profits? Someone genuinely interested in the market would look at all of Nintendo’s assets and opportunities, only a troll would cherry pick like that.

  15. >>>Who let the dog out?>>>

    *Simulating dog barking* Woof, woof woof woofwoof

      1. Hmm, see, what we have here is predicament. On one hand youve been attempting to shut me up for a few months, but you’ve been failing rather badly. On the other, I’m trying to stay as vocal as possible, which, I have to say, I’ve been very successful.

        Now, do I take your advice and shut up? Or do I say fuck off and keep speaking (typing) my mind?

        Oh this is Sophie’s choice all over again.

      2. I hope you know what irony is. Because this “kid” is loving it right now. XD

        See, you keep replying back. If you would only stop replying and stop trying to get my attention, then maybe I wouldn’t bother with you. Seems to me, that the only one acting like a child here, is you. Im just not taking you seriously.

      3. then don’t reply to me then because you just want attention from me kid XD

      4. Let’s “assume” that I am a kid, (since you keep calling me one.) Why would you think a kid wants attention from you specifically, and even worse, why do you keep bothering with a “kid.”

        Is this what you do? You go around harassing kids? Is there some list that you should be part off? :l

      5. Must not. Break character. *right eye twitch*

        lmfao That was an awesome second paragraph! lol *cough, cough* Ahem! Nice one, Lord DemiGOD! You have won the best comment award on this article!

  16. pachter is a INDUSTRY SPOKESPERSON he has been touting THIRD PARTY FROM 2006 TO TODAY

    its nothing but brainwashing and dumb hype HOW IS 20 BILLION IN LOSS NOT A TOTAL FAIL XBOX HOW IS SONY LOOSING BILLIONS A SUCCESS

    THIS DUDE IS A DRONE WITH A SCRIPT FROM THE INDUSTRY MEN HE SPEAKS FOR

  17. can all you mods please ignore pachter, no more news from him, he should be a taboo. he is the only reason why i hate this site or to better word it, he is the only reason why im enjoying going to this site less

    1. Jaded Professor Ridley Bowie X3 {R.I.P. David Bowie, the One & Only Goblin King! R.I.P. Alan Rickman, the Awesome Professor Snape!} says:

      Like I told others that complain about these articles, look at them not as a means to give Pachter publicity but as a means for us to make fun of the guy.

  18. Well, he’s not wrong. The thing is though, Nintendo themselves have only been saying this for the longest. So, yeah pachter, not much of an analytical prediction, just stating the obvious… again.

  19. DUUUUHHH…. of course they will make them until they fail! Are we supposed to rest assured just because Pachter said it? Oh, now I feel confident!
    Idiot.

  20. ok i’m gonna say this that nintendo is trying there best on making the fanboys happy but there is alot of hardcore fans out there and buying alot of there games and trying to prove to nintendo that third party support is always important so i’m 70% sure that nintendo will continue on what they doing but i’m sure the NX will be selling good like the Wii U

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