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Pachter Believes Pokemon GO Success Won’t Last Longer Than 4 Months

Outspoken video game analyst Michael Pachter isn’t convinced that the current Pokemon GO craze will last that long and that the novelty of the mobile title will soon wear off with consumers. Pachter says the game will top the charts for the next four months and then will presumably fade into obscurity.

“The game requires couch potatoes to get off the couch, and the novelty will wear off when they get tired or when their phone batteries die,” says Michael Pachter, a Wedbush Securities analyst. “I give this four months at the top of the charts, then it will fade.”


66 thoughts on “Pachter Believes Pokemon GO Success Won’t Last Longer Than 4 Months”

    1. You know, I should never use the word “never”, but I do have my thoughts on to why I use it on this guy, it is possible one day though that nintendo might do a sega move and head to the best console then go all 3rd party. Such a day I would not like to see because to me, gaming truly dies.

      1. Nintendo First Order Commander Quadraxis

        ||Our most sacred law states that Nintendo will self-destruct by all means available than to become a slave to some foreign corrupt filth…||

          1. Nintendo First Order Commander Quadraxis

            ||Aslong as they are on their own then they will not break the sacred law…||

      2. nintendo will close their doors before they do a sega, nintendo wants their ips on nintendo hardware with the exception of mobile so should they pull a sega they will say ‘mario might come to ps5 and xbox scorpio 2.0’ then proceeds close their doors never to be heard of again, not even on mobile. while i do not like pachter he does have a point and for once, maybe he will be wrong and it will last a couple of months after his predicted months of success of pokemon go or maybe it will be less, who knows, maybe by some miracle pokemon go will last one year.

  1. Pokemon GO is nothing like Miitomo dude. Unlike pretty much 90% of the mobile games you have to get off your ass and take a stroll to get things done in that game. That right there proves Pokemon Go isn’t your average mobile game.

  2. Nintendo First Order Commander Quadraxis

    ||4 human months of tormenting the creature Pachter according to its so called logic, good…||

  3. Pingback: Pachter dice que la euforía de Pokémon Go, durará 4 meses. – NINtheorist

  4. I think he’s right, Pokémon go had nowhere near the charm and challenge of a real Pokémon game. Pokémon Go just feels like doing one chore over and over again. Gameplay wise it’s not a lot of fun, it lives only on nostalgia and hype…

        1. Uhh.. Halo Combat Evolved, Halo 2, Halo 3, Halo 3:ODST, Halo Reach, Halo 4, Pokemon Red, Pokemon Yellow, Pokemon Gold, Silver, Crystal, Emerald, Diamond, Platinum, Heartgold. Mariokart DS, Mariokart 64, super smash bros 4 3D, pac man, ms pac man, dig dug, call of duty black ops DS, Call of duty MW3 DS, call of duty 4, call of duty black ops, gears of war 3, portal 2, uncharted 2 and 3 and golden abyss, Minecraft, perfect dark xbox 360, dead or alive dimensions, dead or alive 5, star wars battlefront 1, star wars battlefront 2, simpsons hit and run, shrek 2 ps2, tetris, super marioland, kid icarus uprising, and many many others. Do you just play a game once or something and never play it again? Lol. If you buy a gane, and it’s good, you might as well play it for as long as it works. Haha

        2. Nintendo First Order Commander Quadraxis

          ||We are talking about civilians here and as a combined group, not individuals…||

          1. A few months is very long for a mobile game to keep attention. But if there is one company that can pull it of it is Nintendo. I’m just sayin’ that I think Pokémon Go really had a lot more potential.

            1. Nintendo First Order Commander Quadraxis

              ||I’m sure they’ll add generation 2 eventually and so on to boost longetivity as a standard force…||

              1. I don’t bother about the content, I’m also sure they’ll add gen 2.
                I’m worried about mechanics and dynamics that become boring over time.

        3. I can think of plenty: Smash Bros. (every version), Assassin’s Creed (every non-mobile version up to Unity), Splatoon, Animal Crossing (every version), Fire Emblem (all except the last two or the Japan-only ones), every possible (main; English) Pokémon game that I was able to get my hands on…

          … I can go on, but I know that I’ll create a “wall of text”, so I’ll shut up now.

          Okay, last paragraph. Nintendo’s goal is to make experiences for mobile costumers so that they may come to the 3DS, Wii U, NX, etc. and play richer experiences if they want. Pokémon Go, Miitomo, and the Animal Crossing and Fire Emblem games are part of that goal. It’s their first time making apps for smart devices so (at least for me) I don’t expect them to be any good for the first few tries (in fact, I have and still don’t like the idea of putting their IPs into mobile and basically letting Apple and Google take some profit off of it), but I expect them to get it eventually (and the benefit of all of this is that the money that they make with these games will fun better development for deeper games and better consoles and handhelds going forward). NOW I’ll end this comment.

          (See what I mean? “Wall of text”.)

        4. Yeah okay you guys are absolutely right. All those examples are paid console/handheld games though; those make a lot of sense to play longer because you paid good money for them. But mobile games are a different league and are not really comparable, I play mobile games more in a use-and-throw-away manner. Maybe Pokémon Go is different, but from my first look at it it really seems like it’s not an experience that will keep the majority excited for longer than a few months. I hope I’m wrong, really do. And it could work out if they make the catching of Pokémon way more interesting, like the handheld games do. In the handheld games the challenge is to find a balance in dealing exactly enough damage to catch the pokémon. In pokémon go you just throw the Pokeball. I’m also missing P2P battles and trades… but maybe those will be added in the future.

          1. Simpsons Hit and Run (a game josephfry4 mentioned) is a smart phone game, though…

            There’s also Jetpack Joyride and Puzzles and Dragons (and boy does Japan love Puzzles and Dragons).

            1. Wait a minute. I thought Simpsons hit and run was only for PS2, Xbox and Gamecube.. If it’s for mobile, same as the console versions, I will buy it this instant! Lol and play it for over 4 months! Hahahha

      1. I agree that the mechanics introduced are well thought of, except for the catching, that’s just boring.
        But I’m just missing some essential mechanics that make the main pokémon games so awesome.

        1. if you swirl the pokeball in a circular motion before throwing it, it will sparkle and it will curve and you get bonus xp, it’s a bit more challenging but i feel like you kind of waste more pokeballs

  5. I think he’s right but I think it will continue to have a decent size user base after the initial craze. I also believe major updates will see it spike in the future.

  6. $14 million in less than a week from 3 markets (one very large) would make those 4 months very profitable even if it did fizzle out. So no harm no foul. Idiot still, of course

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  8. Of course the Nintendo hater will naysay everything Nintendo no matter how successful it proves to be.
    For everybody who doubts Pokémon Go will last long, I must remember you that Ingress is now over 3 years old and going strong…. and all that WITHOUT POKÉMON.
    Pokémon Go will be just fine for years to come….

  9. The problem with Michael Pachter is that he doesn’t understand that the gaming market can and will change – until it does of course. He thinks that Clash of Clans and Candy Crush are the only legitimate models for mobile games and until the very day Pokémon Go proves him completely wrong he will stand by these beliefs. This guy is the worst analyst I’ve ever seen in any field – yes, even worst than economists!

  10. I think the app will last longer than a lot of people are expecting. With enough updates, I could see this app lasting well over a year in terms of popularity. Just wait until we get a proper trainer battling system and Johto Pokemon! I bet you each of those major updates will keep people playing.

    1. Well, I hope I haven’t but you do make good points…just wish you didn’t rush haste to post before thinking so much of how nintendo should this and that and the full outright hateful criticism…but I too have my flaws and I accept them. Trust me, I don’t criticize here, but I’ve been known to criticize elsewhere like twitter, youtube (mostly big time) and even on their home base. At least we can agree on this ass…

  11. Only a complete idiot would poo poo and app being on the top for 4 months. It will probably fade even quicker. But Nintendo is penetrating a new market and helping to usher in a new age for them. A Mario Kart or Animal Crossing game has a better chance at succeeding because they are learning lessons that will help them later on with this Pokemon Go app.

  12. Wow Patcher, what’s next, saying Breath of the Wild’s world is too big? Or that it’s a terrible idea to release the game on an unsuccessful console and a new one? You Patcher, ARE JUST A NINTENDO HATING IDIOT! Yeah I said it and it felt good!

    1. Speaking of BotW’s world size, I wonder how big it is compared to Xenoblade Chronicles X. I know that the latter is larger than the Witcher III (and two other games) combined, so I’m interested to see where BotW falls under.

    2. Not to defend Pachter but he’s done nothing but praise Breath of the Wild so far. So you might want to find another thing to use to hate on Pachter because that’s not it right now. Unless I missed something and he has said something negative about the new Zelda.

      1. Oh, he did? Ok, well he’ll probably say that we’re getting to many Pokémon and that the originals were better. He’s got some good intentions, but HE NEEDS TO START HATING THE OTHERS! By that, I’m meaning Microsoft and Sony. HE BETTER NOT SAY THE NX WILL NOT GOOD AGAIN, OR I’LL GO YELL AT HIM MYSELF!

      2. He actually said that he didn’t realize Zelda was coming out for both Wii U and NX. He didn’t even know Zelda was dropping for NX as a launch title. Lolololol. He’s such a fucking idiot. Give me his job please. I have a master’s, I can make investors money in a heart beat.

  13. Hmm he’s got a good point when you think of it. Handheld Pokemon games will always be the superior experience, while Pokemon GO is really just another casual augment reality game. Could he be wrong? Of course, but like most fads an gimmicks, Pokemon Go may not be a thing next year (especially with the release of Sun and Moon).

  14. He just HAS to throw out his opinion on EVERYTHING to get his name out there. He seems like an attention whore Everytime he makes a comment about something like this, even though I guess it is technically his job.

  15. “…or when their batteries die.”? Really, you know you can recharge batteries right? Or you can carry a powerbank or a substitute battery…. Anyway my point is FUCK-THIS-GUY!! He is just trying to stay on news.

  16. I wonder:” do they need 4 months or more?” From what I can gather they already make a lot of money and as i read it, the local sponsor will bring even more money. if we take into account their share have never been so high since 1983, they will release other apps on mobile platform,and with the theme park coming up they will generate even more money.

    So my guess is they don’t need those number too be that high (did not say they were not happy about it) but more half of it for the next 2 years is something Nintendo may have aimed for. Furthermore I think Pokemon Go is just a successful experiment and Nintendo did not expected those results. I think Nintendo will be happy with 4 months if the number are stable and don’t drop.

    I also challenge that view because the international release is country by country process. I think Nintendo will be able to generate the same money and keep the memento for 1 year . On the top of that you have to take into account that after they rolled out the apps, they will have to do the same thing for update and an update after 4 months is a very longtime for mobile user.Hence why I doubt that after 4 months the hype will fade away. I think Iwata san say something a long the line that update on apps will come at a steady pace and often.

    It is obvious the success of that apps will fade away but 4 months I found it short. The attraction of mobile game for casual is to get in and out. So I would like to think people who will play often but for a short period of time will come back again for more and this will last for more than 4 months.

  17. Pokemon Go will last longer than 4 months.

    Look at that! Can we put that on My Nintendo New too? It’d fit right in with all of Patcher’s dumbass and unprofessional statements.

  18. Pingback: Pokémon GO: el gran triunfo de la nueva Nintendo | elrinconTV

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