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Nintendo Wii: Pachter Says Wii U Launch Success Is Very Difficult To Predict

Famed industry analyst Michael Pachter believes it’s hard to predict just how successful Wii U will be at launch. Pachter thinks it will come down to a number of things including how easy developers find developing on the console, and if Nintendo can secure some third-party exclusives for the system.

“It’s quite difficult to predict a hugely successful launch”

65 thoughts on “Nintendo Wii: Pachter Says Wii U Launch Success Is Very Difficult To Predict”

      1. There’s gonna be launch titles, first parties and third parties. Developers have had dev kits way before Wii U was announced not to mention there’s still more than half a year left before Wii U’s predicted release date. Everyone should know by now that Nintendo is always secretive.They don’t release info until it’s close at hand so I’d expect a ton of stuff when it’s getting close to Wii U’s launch.

        1. i wasnt talking about that. what i was talking about was that developers say they support but only put some shitty games to show there “support”. the 3ds for example, although good games are coming in, at first it wasnt like that. hopefully nintendo had enough time to talk to third-party developers and not RUSH things.

          1. I’m pretty sure that’s why Nintendo is not releasing the Wii U at early 2012, they must have learned their mistakes from the 3ds

            1. ya imagine a 3ds launch this november, launching with both zelda and star fox 64s, super mario 3d land and mario kart 3ds. if only mgs3 and kid icarus werent pushed back.

  1. I sort of agree.
    Unfortunately most gamers have been brainwashed into thinking, a good game is one like CoD, a game with realistic a realistic style, and good graphics.

    And when people think of Nintendo they think of a more childish art style.
    It will probably take sometime for gamers to realize that the Wii U, will actually have 3rd party games that will be “Up the the slandered” people expect.

    I for one, love the more cartoonist style of Nintendo.

    1. Yeah Nintendo’s games just have more character. They are good at creating characters who are recognizable and memorable. Why would I remember some generic bald guy wearing a t-shirt and jeans?

    2. Meh, I kinda want to see a more realistic style come from Nintento sometimes. I like some of the cartoon style but making something realistic, even semi-realistic, impresses me. But since hopefully they’ll be all types of games for the Wii U this time around, we’ll probably get a little bit of everything.

      1. I agree. I love the cartoony-styles…not to mention they age very well. To this day I still love the style they used in Yoshi Story 64, but there is nothing wrong with variety. I’d like to see a little of everything. The Zelda Wii U demo was semi-realistic, which I loved because it still had a style and looked amazing. I’d like to see Ninty keep their signature styles but not become too generic and uber realistic for everything. I think the only game Nintendo has that may be able to get a more realistic style would be Metroid, but I’d rather keep it Sci-fi like it’s been.

        1. I just want more blood in games like zelda and metroid. Not a ninja gaiden blood bath but more like the amounts in Asssassins Creed.

    3. Good graphics are great and all, but they don’t make the game good. Video games are a mix of multiple kinds of art; visual, story, music, and interactive.
      If any game focuses on only one of these, it’s most like not going to be all that great.
      I like more realist graphics depending on the game. If it’s some game like CoD had stylized graphics, it just wouldn’t fit. Same goes for if Mario had realistic graphics, it just wouldn’t work out.
      But I really think that other companies should try using more stylized visuals instead of being uncreative and using realistic graphics as a simple method.

  2. it will be difficult if they let the wii die without a sound.

    HEY NINTENDO OF AMERICA!
    WHERE THE HELL IS XENOBLADE!?

        1. I’m sick that Xenoblades was rated best RPG Wii game after zelda and look at NA.

          WE DON’T HAVE XENOBLADES EUROPE, FEEL OUR PAIN ONCE AGAIN!

  3. I dont think it will be as sucsseful at launch as Wii but we will find out. Just dont make the same mistakes with 3DS then it should be good.

  4. I’m sick of hearing “don’t make the same mistakes as the 3ds”. I love the 3DS, make the same mistakes.

    1. Actually they should be saying “Don’t make the same mistakes as the Wii and DS”.
      Just having to do with all the shovelware, people thought of them as childish pretty much because of that.

      1. This is true, And would explain why the 3DS is the first nintendo console I’ve purchased. The Wii U is on the right track IMO. It has duel thumbsticks for pete sakes!

        1. First nintendo console?! That’s awful I’ve had them all except gba,ds and virtual boy by the way If you have a virtual boy they are worth some money now.

          1. Your right I do have a virtual boy! I bought one used for 20$ a wile back. Sadly it’s seen better days.

      2. With the DS? What are you talking about, I mean, yeah there was shovelware, but the DS isn’t like the Wii, which lacked a wide variety of good games as the DS was FAR more supported than the Wii.

  5. I would like to see Nintendo make a great a realistic adult oriented game though. i think if they tried, It would be a greater success than most games today.

    1. Nintendo have maid realistic adult oriented games, But they lost sales through the francises history or the company quitted nintendo to Microsoft.

        1. Yeh! Since Rare changed to microsoft, microsoft ruined them!

          Nintendo really needs to think more, Ubisoft is just spamming nintendo consoles with shovel-ware like inmagen, ponies that sort of Junk.

          Ubisoft are good at times and sometimes make good games. Ubisoft are looking good with Wii U with Ghost recon online and their exclusive Killer freaks so far. I don’t see Ubisoft shovel-ware coming to Wii U soon at all!

  6. He said it was difficult to predict, not that it was going to suck at launch. Given how not all information is still given regarding the Wii u, including launch games, pricing, the true extent of the specs, etc., the only thing anyone can do at the moment is hope that it will have a successful launch.

  7. I have to agree with him on this one. There may be developers who said they would have games ready for the Wii U, but those are only promises until they are actually released. Anyone remember the 3DS launch? We got a lot of crappy third party support. Oh, and a lot of the promised games will never come to the system. An Assassin’s Creed game was supposed to come to the 3DS. However, before the 3DSlaunched I think, it got canned. Not only that; Ubisoft had confessed they had never started on the game. It wasn’t because of the popularity of the 3DS or anything; they said they wanted to focus on the consoles right now since they’re shelling out an AC game every year. Capcom promised Megaman Legends and it got canned. Saints Row also got cancelled.

    Granted, multiplats would be easier to have on the new system than exclusives. I hope it gets a good launch, and Nintendo has to realize that they need to have their high profile games for people to buy their systems. Have ready Super Mario Bros Mii along with some kind of mini game collection for the casuals, and release something like Pikmin, and Metroid, or Star Fox for the core audience on day one. I don’t care about the complains of third parties; they couldn’t do a good job with the launch of the 3DS even with the lack of first party games. Nintendo can’t afford to have a new price drop for the Wii U. The price has to be high enough so they’ll be able to get a profit from it and low enough so people will be all over this. They also need to advertise it and forget about the “word of mouth” BS. The 3DS suffered a lot from that. They need to show that the Wii U is a new system in HD and that it can use wii controllers and stuff.

    It wouldn’t hurt to implement a very good online system that required to pay for it. Some developers said that the online on Wii U was flexible and that it could connect to other devices and have a social connectivity. My guess would be cross platform gaming and access to sites such as Facebook, twitter, etc.Free users would be able to play online against other Wii U users. Premium player would get free downloads from Nintendo similar to the 3DS’s spotpass (basically DLC for premium users), as well as online multiplayer between other Wii U users as well as 3DS and PC users if it was a multiplat game. They could do a lot with their online infrastructure.

    1. i also agree, Nintendo said the 3DS was going to be the most successful launch for their console ever but… look now.

      Metroid and Star fox are lossing sales so nintendo is not develuping them much anymore.

      We want Star Fox and Metroid Nintendo!!!! FEEL OUR PAIN NINTENDO!

    2. Also the 3DS suffered alot of the word of mouth BS, i agree with you on that.

      The best selling UK news Paper, The Sun made lie storys on the 3DS and said “It will knock IQ points out of your head and convince that English was gibberish” BS! and also they said someone sold their 3DS after one day after Eye strain, also BS!

      Now let’s convince The Sun to start hating the Vita and see Sony feel Nintendo’s pain!

      1. The writers of that paper were no doubt older people who have never touched a video game, and thought it would be an iphone 4 with 3d. Same goes with my parents; they can’t even play games rendered with 3d models. It hurts their eyes.

        So basically, just a bunch of Ultra casuals who can’t even watch pixar movies no doubt. Lol.

        1. The Sun are possibly the worst paper ever! They lie about to much and they hate the 3DS for some resson. Ngamer and 3DS blog started saying a lot about the Suns comments.

          I say the Sun paper are a bunch of ultra casuals who never watched any good movies or touched a video game. All they are on about is celeb’s and display a nude photo on the first few pages.

          The Sun is no longer making hate storys of the 3DS, what are they going to say about the Vita? The Vita gives you hand strain and destroys your brain?

  8. I pretty much blame the CoD fans for no Xenoblade, Pandora’s Tower, and The Last Story. It’s not eating us play those 3 wonderfulbgames. I have not played them, yet, but those dumb CoD fans are too generic, and again, keeping us from getting good games. When will they realize a game with good graphics is not everything. (Though iSorry for the spelling mistake. I am using the iPad, not seeing what I am spelling. :(

    1. I blame all FPS fans that claim their hardcore gamers only because a game contains gore and shooting.

      Really, no one is interested in RPG games in NA anymore. thats why Nintendo has not localised those 3 games in NA.

      I don’t blame just NA, i blame all FPS fans. soon all the great RPGs are going to be Japan only.

      FEEL OUR PAIN EUROPE, AU AND JAPAN AS NA HAS NONE OF THOSE 3 GREAT GAMES!

      1. Yep, and the reason why, to me, is that the FPS are too much for NoA, and decide not to release it. Since all those FPS fans are addicted to CoD and Halo, well, yeah. Also, it may be the reason why we never got most RPGs, like Mother 3. And Wii Chess. Ironically, I do not think it would sell well, so that is the reason why we never got Wii Chess.

  9. the difficulty is the price and specs!

    *is the Wii U going to be a pre-next gen 8th gen console? like how Xbox 360 was? meaning that it would have advance tech of 8th gen consoles and old tech of 7th gen?
    -if this is the case how much would the price be? would it be expensive? if it is then there is a chance of the Wii U succeeding.
    -if the price is cheap, the Wii U will definitely succeed.

    *or would it be a complete 7th gen console more powerful than outdated ps3 and xbox 360?
    -if this is the case how would the price vary? if its expensive the Wii U has no chance in surviving!
    -if its cheap then it can rival both ps3 & xbox 360 but would NIntendo gain sale from developing such a powerful system at low cost?

    Best thing Nintendo should do is to make sure Wii U is a pre-next gen console. It is WAY too late to introduce a 7th gen console slightly stronger than ps3 & xbox 360. Majority of people who are happy with their 7th gen consoles will stick to ps3!
    Should Nintendo adapt to Bluray?

    1. It’s a full 8th gen console. We may not know the full specs of the system, but IBM has confirmed that the Wii U uses a variation of the CPU found in their Watson super computer. Granted, those CPU’s are very expensive. Still a lower end version of it beats the ps3 and 360’s CPU easily because of how it works. I think the lowest end Power7 CPU (Watson’s CPU) is clocked at 3Ghz with 4 cores. It may look like it has lower clock speeds than those found on the other consoles, but it still kicks the other two out of the water because of how Power7 works. This is important because games can make more efficient use of the CPU. Apparently the Wii U will also have a lot of dedicated video RAM.

    2. Well the Wii-U discs already can store the same amount that a Blu-Ray can store but they’re definitely not going to make their systems play discs that aren’t made by or for Nintendo. They do that too keep their systems cheap and affordable, which is fine by me.

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