Famed but controversial video game analyst Micheal Pachter has published his predictions for next year. It’s going to be a bumper year in 2017 with two huge hardware releases – the Nintendo Switch and the Xbox Scorpio. Read on to find out what he thinks will happen.
1.) PS4 price goes to $199. I think Sony is intent upon keeping Microsoft in distant second, and expect a price cut for standard PS4 (slim) to $199 before year-end 2017.
2.) No Rockstar games other than Red Dead Redemption. Rockstar hasn’t released a “new” game since 2013, and Red Dead will consume all of its efforts in 2017.
3.) Call of Duty returns to glory with a Modern Warfare title from Sledgehammer. Although I think that they want to establish the Advanced Warfare brand as a franchise, the relatively poor performance of Infinite Warfare suggests to me that Activision has to get its act together and bring fans back into the fold.
4.) Super Mario Run is a huge hit out of the gate, and interest peters out by June. Notwithstanding the brand’s popularity, Nintendo is making a strategic error with its “free-to-start” business model, and I expect sales to drop off relatively quickly.
5.) Pokemon Go drops out of the top 10 in every country with a population greater than 20 million. The game was fun, but there’s only so many Pokemon to capture.
6.) The Switch is sold out through September. The console looks fun, the price appears to be right, and I expect demand to be high. If there is a lot of third-party support (games, not merely labels), I think demand remains high.
7.) The Xbox Scorpio is priced at $399. This might not be low enough, particularly if PS4 Pro drops before holiday 2017, but Microsoft has to price competitively or fall farther behind.
8.) The next Elder Scrolls installment comes out, the next Half Life installment does not. I think Bethesda is close, and think that Valve is not. However, I’d like to be half wrong on this one.