Following today’s reports that Nintendo are readying a brand new HD console for a reveal at E3 in June, a number of analysts including the famed Michael Pachter have given online gaming publication Eurogamer their opinions about the situation.
“I think the right time for the console was in front of Kinect and Move, and think that Nintendo has forever lost one customer for each Kinect and Move unit sold,” he said.
“That means they should have launched the Wii 2 in Fall 2009, and at the latest in Fall 2010, so a launch in 2011 is late.
“With that said, it’s never ‘too’ late, since they can retain the lion’s share of the market by inducing current Wii owners to upgrade, and by capturing undecided consumers who have either not yet purchased a console or who have not yet bought Kinect or Move.
“It’s highly likely that there is a Wii 2 reveal at E3,” he added. “If they don’t do it this year, then it might be too late next year.”
M2 Research analyst Billy Pidgeon agreed that Nintendo needs to act fast.
“Nintendo needs to launch first in the next generation, as Wii is somewhat saturated and the console’s low resolution graphics lag in the current generation,” he explained. “I expect the next Nintendo console in 2012 at the latest, so a 2011 E3 launch announcement is a strong possibility.
“There will be some risk for Nintendo in the next generation – Wii has a huge installed base and Nintendo should work to keep that base active as long as possible.
“Nintendo has successfully straddled handheld generations, but console succession is far trickier. ‘Wii 2′ will need to be backwards compatible, as Nintendo is likely to support Wii with software until the next console gains sufficient penetration.”
Pidgeon went on to speculate that the new console would pack in better motion control and possibly even a Kinect-esque tracking camera.
“The next Nintendo console is likely to have improved motion control and to include video camera tech, but I’d be disappointed if it didn’t have some off-the-wall innovation that pushes the medium forward in an unforeseen direction.
He also argued that if it hoped to prosper against the PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360, the machine would need to feature a hugely improved online set-up over the Wii’s much maligned efforts.
“With Wii and with handhelds, Nintendo doesn’t compete with other vendors on hardware. In fact, Nintendo leads with hardware control and user interface.
“However, Nintendo must step up and compete in the online console marketplace and multiplayer experience, where Microsoft and Sony are performing strongly. Connected devices’ online experience should lead, rather than follow, the hardware’s capabilities.”
EEDAR VP Jesse Divnich was more cautious with his predictions but agreed that a late 2012 launch was likely.
“Unfortunately I cannot speculate on what a Wii 2 will have. I literally have no information on it, so anything I speculate will surely be wrong.
“But I can say this. Nintendo doesn’t go with the flow, they never have, and gamers can expect Nintendo to continue to be original and offer up an experience that simply cannot be found or matched on other platforms.
“But if you want to use some historical information. Nintendo announced the Revolution, later renamed the Wii, at their 2005 E3 press conference, a full year and half from its official release. So a Wii 2 announcement certainly wouldn’t be a shocker if they plan for a 2012 holiday release.”
Michael Pachter, i got suspicious after his name showed up, this man has no credibility what so ever.
Does Michael want Nintendo take the same path as Sega and Atari?
A new console in 2009 would been exactly that. A console should last a good 5-6 years imo. Since the Wii is becomming of age it would be strange step to tease the new console at E3.
Michael should know by now that Gameplay is far more important then graphics. And ”a brand new HD console” Whaaaat? It would be the first HD console, current gen is just an upscaled mess.
Everything was much more fun back before game consoles were ‘big business..’ Time to go play some Kid Niki
Well Spoken!!
I predicted a 2012 release years before while other analysts *cough pachter cough* were swearing by a 2008, at least a 2009, release. Guess I’m much smarter despite my lack of cash flow. Wish I would get paid for predictions like that…. I even predicted it would be announced the E3 the year before! But I didn’t see the 3DS coming, so it might be a one-hit occasion.
If Nintendo does show a new wii console this years e3 it wont just be a upgraded wii it will be a completely new console.I heard that playstation wants to bring out there new console in 2013 so there would not be a huge gap in which the can make it stronger then Nintendo’s new console (if it does come out in 2012) which I am almost certain about.That being said I can not wait to see the power of these baby’s. I wonder how good the graphics will be?
well, if Nintendo does announce an HD Console, we all know what Sony is gonna do :P copy it :P, though Sony did have the first motion control thing, they didn’t implement it fully till PS3 so Nintendo beat them there, it was almost like Sony had people undercover in Nintendo HQ :P
Like always I ignore whatever pachter says. If nintendo released a new one in 09 then the wii would have just been 3 years old. Why release one when wii was selling like crazy? I’m excited for the new one :)
waooo…They should not just make it HD they should upgrade the Wi-fi…because they have sucky Wi-fi things because you can’t even chat with people unless you trade codes that’s LAME!!! and it’s so plain
I think Nintendo are happy with the recent launch of the 3DS. I don’t see any reason why they should bother with announcing a Wii 2 until next year.
I agree that supposed “HD” gaming just isn’t that important, perhaps to the almighty dollar, but I personally would love to see any other game developer with half of the retroactive compatibility that Nintendo has shown. The Wii, even without the virtual console could and still does easily play GCN games, uses GCN controllers, and memory cards, unlike the PS3, that failed, and eventually retracted the ability to play PS2 games, and the XBOX 360 plays like under 5% of XBOX games? Only the latest iteration of it handheld dropped gameboy advance games, while the first step of advancement the PSP took was to completely abandon the UMDs so many bought for the last version. I think that Nintendo could easily rely on said compatibility to propel almost anything they possibly reveal at E3 this year.