Nintendo

Analyst Is Convinced Wii U Sales Will Top 50 Million In 4 Years

UK analyst group IHS Screen Digest is convinced that Wii U will outsell the original Wii during the first three months of the hardware going on sale. The firm then expects it will sell more than 50 million units in the next four years. IHS Screen Digest says that the innovation regularly shown by Nintendo, as well as strong first party software, won’t be enough the propel the console above sales of the Wii.

“Pent-up demand from Nintendo evangelists, many of which were introduced to the console market through the success of the Wii, is predicted to drive an explosive start for the Wii U.”

“There is no doubt the Wii U underlines Nintendo’s credentials as an innovator, introducing the first dedicated and fully integrated second-screen game experience to the market. Yet the fragmented landscape for games consumption and the proliferation of always-on, connected devices, means that product innovation alone is not enough to stay relevant to today’s mainstream consumer.”

“This time around, Wii U’s pure innovation, coupled with a limited volume of high-quality Nintendo software, will not be enough to drive the ongoing sales momentum we witnessed with the Wii console, especially at a higher price point.”

“Nintendo is still some way short of delivering a comprehensive engagement-led value proposition at the launch of the Wii U.”

– IHS senior principal analyst Piers Harding-Rolls

76 comments

    1. 50 Mill in 4 years is awesome for anybody. 6 years with a couple of price drops would leave yo at 70Mill which with the right install base is very successfull.

      1. PSP was successfull , especially in Japan where it is still doing great. The PSP was half as successfull as DS but that means nothing becuase the DS is almost taking over the PS2 as the highest selling System Ever.

        If wiiu can sell 70Mill in its lifesoan of 6years , it’s a huge success. Any more will be a phenomenal success. 150 mill like ps2 is total industry domination which is unlikely with the way Microsoft and even Sony are positioned.

      2. PSP was a failure, because it wanted to win over DS, PS Vita will be successful if it meets or surpass PSP sales

        3DS and Wii U are coming from DS and Wii, anything below those, is a failure

      3. Untrue. If the wiiu can sell 70M and have a more harcore software base , Nintendo would prefer that to 98M wii’s and a weak install base.

        Look at 360 , it’s selling software really fast. So much faster than wii which means it will continue to gain third party support.

        I do agree with you , hardware number are a key factor. But hardcore consumers are equaly as important. The wii and DS had hardcore consumers in the tens of millions.

      4. Just because one product doesn’t outsell another product, that doesn’t automatically make it a failure.

        The PSP was very successful. Your business sense is ridiculous.

  1. 50 million in 4 years isn’t a failure. It’s quite successful actually. Most people predict 50 million lifetime sales, so this is an improvement. I just want my Wii U.

  2. It’s a good thing that’s not all Nintendo has going for them. Many factors can impact this thing in the future. We have to wait and see. Leave luck to heaven.

      1. nintendo evangelists! 10 other reasons that guy didn’t mention why wiiu will be a tremendous success-

        1. launch date first in USA right in time for black friday and xmas
        2. two choices, the ugly cheap white basic set or the sleek black expensive set that sold out first
        3. strong 3rd party launch titles and promises of more
        4. whispers of 3DS connectivity, and 3D tv compatibility
        5. great promotion like the wiiu tour and kiosks, celebrity support from stars like Robin WIlliams and Penelope Cruz
        6. premium set comes with great value, not only is it sleek, but it has cradles, digital download discount membership, Nintendoland, and almost 3X the memory of basic set
        7. wiiverse, eshop and nintendo tvii
        8. mysterious port on the bottom of gamepad
        9. backwards compatible with wiimotes and wii games, including wii transfer
        10. CLUB NINTENDO!!!

  3. If Wii U sells 50 million, then I guess the PS4 and Xbox wil sell much less, because of the early launch day and price. Wii U will still win the race. And trust me, the U’s pricepoint will drop because of the “not so harcore” hardware.

    1. I couldn’t agree with you more. I’ll be suprised if PlayStation 4 or Xbox 720 reach 20 million by the end of 2016.

      1. and only a year and a half not 2 :). After Holiday season , Animal crossing , Luigi’s mansion 2 , Castlevania and many other games , it could be at 30Mill by March 2013.

      2. I think the 3DS will break the 30 million mark by December 31, since the 22.19 million figure was from September.

      3. @Platninum johnny and Kyloctopus- We have 2 different guesses here :P

        I put my money on the ”Selling really well due to great software 30M+ by march 2013” horse. Trust me on this , the 3ds and XL will sell faster than shit off a shovel during christmas as will the software physical and digital.

  4. Hmmm…I’d predicting over 75 million in 4 years. I mean come, the Wii U’s biggest competition next generation will be the Ouya.

      1. This. You can’t just waltz into the market with no company brand and mobile phone specs with no disc drive and expect to compete with big desirable consoles.

        It’s like suggesting a Pub football team could walk into the Barclays premiership and walk away with the League title. Not gunna happen.

      2. I think the average consumer would rather buy a fairly inexpensive Nintendo console (Wii U) with lots of great games or a $99 box that is very accessible rather than the $500-$700 powerhouses Microsoft and Sony will shit out, whose controllers will be GamePad rip offs.

      3. Nah. I think the ouya will be like Ngage and Gizmondo. month 1 – It appears in gamestores. Month 2 – It’s on the counter at gamestores not on the serious shelf space. month 3. Removed from gamestores. month 4 – Only available at Electronic and PC stores or online. Month 5- everyone now knows the Ouya is a PoS and the 125,000 people who bought it all feel very stupid and never play it.

        Meanwhile Wiiu is on 12M and the nextbox and ps4 are being hyped.

      4. Nonsense. @$90 for a machine that can kick out near-X360 level graphics and has a ready-made developer base of literally hundreds of thousands of indie devs is not going to fail. It won’t challenge the existing consoles, but it was never aimed at that market. It’s a console for indie gamers and developers, not necessarily the mainstream. Even if only the people who backed it on Kickstarter buy it, it will still be a success, but frankly there are enough hardcore Android fans out there to likely double that. I wish people on here would stop acting like irrational fanboys about anything that they perceive as being in the slightest competition with Nintendo. It makes this site look bad and it does way more harm than good to the reputation of Nintendo fans.

      5. Well actually with the support it’s getting and how well it did on kickstarter, I see it being successful. I already have one on pre order :D

    1. Then you’re smoking crack. Cmon, its not going to sell more in 4 years than the 360 did in 7 years

      1. You gotta admit though, without third party support the 360 would suck balls. I think it sucks regardless lol.

      2. Don’t tell me what I’m smoking “TheDragon234”. The casuals who will pass on the atrocities Microsoft and Sony shit out will go to Wii U. Only asshurt fanboys like Aeolus will buy Xbox 720/PS4…Oh, wait he wouldn’t cause he’s a Nintendo fan.

      3. you do have a point, lol but you’re kinda being a little too agressive lol. remember we’re Nintendo fans too :)

      4. I would not be so sure about that… You know, Nintendo is known to have high-selling and stable products. But 75m is maybe over the top but not impossible. If Nintendo gets the 3rd part support I can see this happen as it looks like the PS4/720 will not come out before 2014 right now.

      5. In its life time maybe, but both the 360 and the ps3 sold over 60 mil. I know the WiiU sold 90 mainly due to a larger consumer base, and with the WiiU it’ll be no different, but the Wii was very cheap at the time in comparison, and it was a very groundbreaking idea. The WiiU is a new idea, and does chamge gaming, but its not as drastic as the Wii.

  5. Because it is the first console to be released for the 8th generation, I’d guess that it would reach 50 (at the least) in 4 years.

    1. Played around with one at the local Walmart (well games not playable mostly just videos etc) . The controller was deff not to heavy as many have worried about. Also the screen on the controller was just right considering many where complaining that the small screen was not in HD. I wasn’t worried about getting one til next year but now I want it now!

  6. All Nintendo has to do is show video of next Legend of Zelda U, next Metroid U and Donkey Kong U. from Retro,, next Mario Kart U, new Super Smash Bros. U, Super Mario U, new Wii U Sports, and a new FPS to contend with Halo and Wii U will outsell everything else. I suspect Nintendo is holding back for when Sony and Microsoft bring their new systems. The 3DS sales will skyrocket when Pokemon comes out for 3DS.

  7. Maybe, alot can happen or in thisncase be released in 4 years. By then a Zelda wouldve come out most likely, Retro’s game, ect.
    Depends what Microsoft and Sony do and what their price point will be.

    1. Smash bros U is a killer app. Smash bros brawl is the highest selling fighting game ever. That’s why Sony are copying. SSBwiiu will be incredible !!!

      1. I dream about SSBU….kneeing people in the face…in HD!;D…Ganon stomping people…in HD!;D…sexy platform cancels….in HD!;D

  8. Ever since I saw the kind of crap that Patcher spews, I’ve lost my faith in analysts in general.
    I know that’s not fair to the good ones, but they can blame Patcher for giving them a bad name.
    I’m just going to play this one by ear, and in the meantime I’ll make the non-informed-but-hopeful prediction that it will at least triple the sales of the Wii by the time it is 4 years old.

  9. I disagree with the high price tag part of this conversation.
    Gamespot already told me that the Wii U’s introductory price is measured at a manufacturing loss.
    And if i know Mr. Iwata, he’ll never tell a lie.

  10. not stellar but still pretty good sales

    anywho i’d be damned if i bet my money on an estimate like that

  11. I can see it outselling the wii. it takes wii’s concept and magnifies it while adding a new spin on gaming.

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