Nintendo

Pachter Believes It’s Unlikely The Nintendo NX Will Launch 2016

Everyone’s favourite video game analyst Michael Pachter is back predicting and this time he’s discussing the Nintendo NX. Pachter is of the firm opinion that it is unlikely that Nintendo will launch its next platform the NX next year. While all signs seem to point towards a late 2016 launch Pachter says “I’d say 20 percent chance it comes out in 2016 in the US, 80 percent chance it comes out in 2017.” Guess we shall just have to wait and see!

“I can talk about Nintendo’s past practice, and use that as a predictor of the future. But, I don’t know. Nintendo’s past practice has been to announce their next generation consoles at E3, and to release them 18 months later. And they typically will have a prototype and a couple of game markups… where you can play something.

“But they take about 18 months, and last I checked we don’t have 18 months until the end of 2016. So, it is less likely that something is coming out in 2016. But, the rumours are that there are NX dev kits out there. We don’t know how long they have been out there, but if the rumour has leaked they have probably been out a couple of months. It is really slightly possible that developers can make something for NX console launch in fall 2016, and do a quality product in 13 – 15 months. Slightly possible.”

“The more the NX looks like a PS4 or Xbox One, the more likely it is that it’s coming out in 2016. The less it looks like a PS4 or Xbox One, the less likely. If it’s a different language, it requires developers to tweak a lot of things from Madden, FIFA, Call of Duty or Grand Theft Auto in order to get it ready for NX, 13 months is probably not enough time and it’s probably a 2017 launch.

“So again, not knowing what the NX is, I don’t know when it’s coming out. I’d say 20 percent chance it comes out in 2016 in the US, 80 percent chance it comes out in 2017. If you don’t see it before E3, there’s a zero percent chance it’s coming out in 2016.”

Source / Via

45 comments

  1. “Everyone’s favorite gaming analyst Michael Pachter believes that, when a baby is born, it can be either a he, or a she.”

    *a round of applause in the background*

  2. see that everyone i was right the NX shouldn’t be release in 2016 so im guessing a chance to 80% that the NX will be release in 2017 yeah that should be a good release date on that year because nintendo said they will launch mobile titles in 2017 yeah you know i think it will be a good idea and a good opportunity for nintendo to launch the NX in 2017 so they can keep track on there IPs and there monthly budget in there mobile titles.

  3. Pachter is actually making some good extrapolations based on Nintendo’s history. Not that anyone is going to care though- he will be called an idiot if wrong and ignored if he is right lol.

    1. ognored IF RIGHT HE NEVER HAS BEEN HE READS THE SCIPT THE INDUSTRY WANT HIM TO…

      HE IS SENT OUT TO DOOM NINTENDO thsts his job its a frontman for the haters

      if he says not IT WILL BE

      1. Doesn’t matter if it’s accurate or believable. Michael Pachter’s predictions are now irrelevant due to his large mouth spouting out all these Bullshit predictions about the NX.

  4. He’s such a complete moron. Nintendo has obviously been developing for it going by how dormant its studios are. Also, 3rd party devs don’t need a lot of time if it’s a port and/or more powerful than PS4. It’s no different than porting to PC/Xbone/PS4. Optimization (especially for these lazy 3rd party devs) takes very little effort and time. Meaning, these guys aren’t going to go out of their way to utilize the extra power the NX may have. They do the very minimum necessary and have already proven that they are trying for parity with PS4/Xbone. The PS4 is much more capable than Xbone yet multiplats looks very similar. Does anyone think they will piss off Sony/Microsoft by making NX look/play better? Dream on if so. Pachter conveniently forgets that Nintendo is adept at bringing out revisions ie. GBA, ‘New’ 3DS, etc that weren’t announced 18 months in advance. Besides, by the time NX comes out in 2016 it will have been around that long since NX was first mentioned by Nintendo.

    1. When Iwata mention the codename NX, he said it was mention earlier then when Nintendo usually does these type of announcement.

  5. Jaded Ridley X3 {I'm not whining, you suckers... *cough* ..poor souls! I've just been driven insane by Nintendo failing me one too many times this gen!} says:

    I don’t really care that much anymore when NX releases. If it releases in 2016, cool. If not, whatever. Either way, I’m not getting it day 1 & will give it 6 months to a year before I actually buy it. I’m perfectly happy with my n3DS, PS4, & Wii U.

    1. Agreed 100%. I’m going to wait until there are a few games on the NX, before deciding on buying one. I didn’t regret when I got the Wii U, it was good timing to buy it on the Week that it launched, because I got a Care Kit from Game and for buying it that one week, I got New Super Mario Bros U for Free. But considering how things have gone so far, in terms of releases for Wii U, I am going to wait for NX.

  6. For once I hope Pachter is right. Not to sound like a broken record but 2016 is too soon for Nintendo to launch a new home console. If it turns out to be a handheld, that’s different.

      1. New 3DS is just a revision. When new consoles handheld and home are introduced to the market, old handheld and home consoles do not stop selling. They continue to sell until decided no longer needs to be on the market.

  7. I personally never believed that the NX would release in 2016. Nintendo usually talks about a new console years before it releases. And we haven’t even heard anything technical, specific, or official about the NX yet. I think the only thing 2016 will represent is the unveiling of the NX at E3. When they finally show what it really is.

  8. And Pachter still believes he’s right all the time.

    What would a casual like him know about something that isn’t even revealed .

  9. I swear this guy is the biggest attention whore on the Internet but this time I might have to agree with this douchebag. I too don’t think the NX will release next year unless of course if it’s the handheld version (if the recent rumors are true about it being a home console/mobile unit). Nintendo needs to take their time and make sure the system is clicking on all cylinders before trying to rush it out. We Nintendo fans don’t need another Wii U situation so please to the people who want them to hurry up to release the system next year, let’s give Nintendo all the time they need to get it right with the NX

  10. Can we please stop treating the baseless ramblings of an old man as news? Name one time Pachter was even close to being right about anything that wasn’t painfully obvious to everyone (like him claiming that Nintendo needs third party developers in order for the NX to be successful).
    On topic: actual sources say that Nintendo will enter mass production by March and while that is still a rumour I believe that a million times over Pachter’s brainfarts.

    1. It said by 1st quarter but don’t mention if it is by Nintendo fiscal 1st quarter or calendar 1st quarter. Nintendo fiscal 1st quarter starts in April. The financial reports for fiscal 4th quarter would or could give insights if that rumor has any truth to it.

  11. If the NX doesn’t at least compete with an XBOX 360………..And yes I said 360 in terms of online. It’s doomed.
    If Nintendo cannot learn from past mistakes, then it is doomed.
    When they first showed the Wii U, they showcased Nintendo Land…. the game released, with no online support.
    Make the first step Nintendo, sack Reggie,

  12. I just hope it launches with whatever current 3rd party releases exist at the point, not just old ports like the Wii U did.

    If Final Fantasy 15 and Mass Effect Andromeda release in the same period, Nintendo better damn well be trying to get 3rd parties to port their games to the console

  13. I for once agree with him, in fact I’d say you’ve bob hope and no hope of it coming out in 2016. The interwebz got a little overexcited when poor quality media outlets wrote BS.
    For it to come out in 2016 means they would need to have begun making games 2 years ago and have around a dozen games nearing completion. That’s soooooo is not the case. KNowing Nintendo I bet they don’t even have 6 games past the 50% mark.

  14. Except Pachter, nor anyone for that matter, knows exactly what the NX is. How can you predict the release of something when you don’t even know whats releasing. I got a feeling the NX is not just Nintendo’s next home console.

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