Yesterday’s 2015 fiscal year results have received reactions by many people in the gaming community, but now another group of folks are expressing themselves. A handful of analysts sat down to explain their views on the situation Nintendo is facing, and how investors will interpret this.
- “Investors are not going to like that. With the titles coming later in the year, earnings for the first half don’t look so good. And people who expected NX to launch this year will also be disappointed.” – Hideki Yasuda, an analyst at Ace Research Institute in Tokyo
- “If Mario is available on smartphones, then why buy into the closed world of Nintendo handheld gaming?. Nintendo is going to delay releasing a Mario smart phone game until proven that it’s the only way to monetize its key intellectual properties on mobile.” – Pelham Smithers
- “Given market hopes that as its famous characters will slowly be imported in games targeting smartphones, we believe its poor forecasts might be ignored. NX will also keep some investors hoping for a gradual recovery.” – Amir Anvarzadeh, manager of Japanese equity sales at BGC Partners Inc.
- “Big picture: the NX is critical to the long-term success of Nintendo,. Nintendo needs to rebound with the NX to remain a relevant platform holder over the next five years. The challenge is that the roadmap for a successful Nintendo console is unclear. The market is limited for a third HD console on which the main USP is Nintendo IP, and motion [controlled] gaming has evolved from a fad in mainstream entertainment into a niche. Finding the market need for a third console will be a challenge, and thus far very little is known about how the NX will accomplish this.” – Patrick Walker, EEDAR’s VP of insights and analytics
- “The company may be taking the additional time to properly prepare for the NX launch and to maximise the quality of upcoming major franchises like Zelda as well. This may cause some investors anxiety, but we’ll see whether it was worth the wait. Nintendo should be working on the NX library and manufacturing pipeline to make certain that the launch is smooth, with sufficient supply, and that the library will be sufficient to drive demand.” – Billy Pidgeon, an independent analyst
- “It’s a bit of a half-step approach, but it’s understandable since Nintendo’s console business has to be focused on making the NX a success at this point. The Wii U didn’t meet expectations, and I don’t blame Nintendo for shifting gears and trying to come as strongly out of the gate with NX as possible. Having a great Zelda title on day one will help. Yes, the Wii U catalog is looking thin this holiday, but at this point I think Nintendo and everyone else can see the handwriting on the wall and it is pivoting towards whetting the appetite of its faithful fans for the NX.” – IDC Research director Lewis Ward
- “Scheduling a hardware launch so late in the [fiscal] year and excluding any NX sales from guidance suggests a lack of confidence that the device will actually launch in FY17. It is important to note that a March launch provides Nintendo with wiggle room to delay, as it’s still likely to launch well ahead of the key holiday season.” – Wedbush Securities’ Michael Pachter
- “Historically, Nintendo has been in control of most of the value chain, integrating both hardware and software into a single ecosystem, but now that situation has changed. For one, digital distribution takes up almost one-fifth of software revenue (19%), and continues to grow year-over-year. In addition, its success with new revenue streams like the amiibo is growing, even as US sales for the toys-to-life category have started to flatten out. That provides necessary income in the midst of a volatile period, but it cannot cover the whole. Nintendo’s international success – with Fire Emblem selling more outside of Japan (1.06M units compared to 780K) – has a greater exposure to currency fluctuations. And, finally, both of its key titles, Fire Emblem and Animal Crossing, were initially conceived as console titles but have found their greatest degree of success on handhelds. It shows that the games industry is, in fact, so volatile that even a powerhouse like Nintendo is not impervious to it. Nintendo’s current game plan is likely to provide enough runway to develop a full strategy and rollout that capitalizes on the current market changes. The thing to remember about Nintendo is to never count it out.” – SuperData’s Joost van Dreunen
Sooo much good information in here.
Walker makes a good point about how a third HD console fits… Wii U didn’t so what will the NX bring to the table, besides Nintendo IP that makes it a much have next to the other two?
I really didn’t understand the whole no DVD or blue ray support from Nintendo, I myself prefer to use a console because frankly they work better than any stand alone player I’ve owned. Nintendo is going to have to make it easy for other companies to get their games on board without hurdles to jump over.
I completely agree with Walker. It’s definitely going to be a make or break situation for Nintendo and it’s fans. It will be a damn interesting reveal for NX and the following time after its release.
Me neither… Like, even the Wii was using DVDs right? A proprietary disc is obnoxious. I also wonder if their silly game/OS architecture made it hard for other non-gaming apps like HBO Go and others to get on board.
Regardless, ever since the PS2 had DVD playability, the idea of not having it has always puzzled me
No, Wii doesn’t play DVDs. At least I’m pretty sure it doesn’t….
Right, so those discs are what, CDs?
They’re still dvds – they have to be in order to hold the large amount of data each game has. There was actually a way to unlock the Wii to play movies, though, but it required homebrew or something of that nature. According to Miyamoto, the reason they don’t officially allow it is because they’re “game machines”.
I suppose since most people already have a dvd player, it is a valid point – but it’s still a nice addition to a console, and was a factor in the PS2’s success.
Yeah I mean, I figured they would’ve been DVDs, or at least some equivalent but just “not” dvds… either way, for a kid to have a wii in his room and it was a DVD player, that sort of thing is huge. Basically, if I am a company, I want my console to be used for as many things as possible.Like with the Wii U, they put the internet browser on there, even though I never would use it because the os sucks compared to most things and it doesn’t serve much of a function for me personally. But they did do it, so… I don’t know, whatever
That’s a bullshit excuse to not have DVD/CD functionality on their consoles nowadays. Especially now that they have fucking Netflix, Hulu, & Youtube apps. But as long as people see Nintendo as a good secondary console, I guess they could go another gen without that functionality. Then again, if they want the NX to be the go-to console next gen, it wouldn’t be such a bad idea to add DVD/CD playability.
“…I also wonder if their silly game/OS architecture made it hard for other non-gaming apps like HBO Go and others to get on board.
“Regardless, ever since the PS2 had DVD playability, the idea of not having it has always puzzled me”
Interestingly, the PS2 was comparatively more difficult to dev for than N64, yet despite that, it was the sales leader in 6th gen. Most likely due in part to featuring DVD playback, & of course marketing, shit-talking the Dreamcast, the promise of games, its predecessor’s success, & brand penetration *giggedy* outside gaming. That rubber duckie demo, though…yeah… But Nintendo prolly should’ve officially added DVD playback in the Wii. Or sooner.
While I think consoles should’ve remained dedicated, optimized solely for gaming (they’ve since morphed into budget PCs 😢), Nintendo could’ve take a hit on GCN’s specs & just released a less-powerful-but-less-expensive Panasonic Q, @ least on par w/ PS2 specs. Of course, Sony (the main competition) might’ve gotten a cut of DVD royalties, as might’ve Philips & Toshiba (Panasonic already did), but GCN would’ve likely been more popular & Nintendo could’ve carried their 6th gen losses (whether this Q was popular or unpopular) until 7th gen & made bank w/ a console that played not just DVDs, but also Blu-rays (ignoring the possibility of a Wii HD-DVD accessory like 360 had). Maybe Nintendo wouldn’t have had to pay Sony for Blu-ray, either. Whether that Nintendo console would’ve been anything like Wii (sales, hardware, motion controls) under that scenario is difficult to know. But charging for online & digital is where it’s @, & Nintendo should’ve invested heavily in a better online infrastructure w/ GCN, & a better online store for their 7th gen entry. Of course, 1st they would’ve had to expand into other tech sectors to @ least break even.
*shrugs* Could’ve, would’ve, should’ve. Who knows? 5th gen, 6th gen, & 7th gen proved power wasn’t key to being the sales leader, & exclusives were still important. But 8th gen proves power is key & exclusive titles mean very little (but exclusive DLC & extra raindrops are crucial [PS4 vs X1; of course Wii U is less powerful & meant for a different subculture]). Last-gen HD Remasters anyone? & who thought broken games would sell so well, & how much digital advancements would be used as crutches instead of enhancements? Or that stories & cutscenes would mean just as much if not more so than actual gameplay? Hel, what does ‘console generation’ mean anymore? Why accept a current entry console for what it is these days when you can compare it to anything relatively “better”? Subcultures & many genres seem as dead as consoles. Generalizing? Moi? Maybe.
Whatever the NX is, it certainly won’t be a dedicated console. But I’m sure Nintendo will once again skip DVD/Blu-ray playback, & instead rely on streaming services as it did w/ Wii & Wii U.
I also doubt 3rd parties, especially Western 3rd parties, will be catering to the Nintendo subculture, or that Nintendo will cater to its own, let alone anyone but indies catering to console-gaming. Nintendo should’ve abandoned console-gaming & their Japanese style before PlayStation aligned w/ the Xbox agenda.
SEGA failed w/ its hardware in 6th gen. Then PlayStation failed w/ exclusives, its Japanese style & the Sony subculture itself in 7th gen. Now Nintendo twitches in 8th gen, unable to sell its purer console (Wii U); coming up short w/ the concept for the Gamepad’s example of the industry’s once-rich history of controller evolution; refusing to dev much of their catalog (F-Zero, Wave Race, Sin & Punishment, console Fire Emblem, console Animal Crossing, Eternal Darkness/Shadow of the Eternals, Metroid…); botching Fatal Frame, Devil’s 3rd, & Star Fox Zero; giving 3DS way more love… 9th gen (if the industry will even adhere to that standard) is not looking very bright (more like photorealistically drab).
Whatever. I’m insane. A raving lunatic! Well, be that as it may, a small part of me does keep an open mind about NX’s potential, as far as gaming goes. Yet nothing I’ve experienced or seen in recent gens instills me w/ hope; 6th gen was I think the pinnacle for me, in terms of hardware features (or lack thereof) & software. Now? Feels like the industry has slipped into Atari Shock 2.0 w/ a mix of Hollywood blockbustering, but has somehow made it the norm. Funny, I thought I’d be a handheld-only gamer for 8th gen. Maybe in 9th. Goddammit! What does a gen mean anymore?! & what the Hel are handhelds becoming?!
…; [Nintendo] refusing to dev much of their catalog (F-Zero, Wave Race, Sin & Punishment, console Fire Emblem, console Animal Crossing, Eternal Darkness/Shadow of the Eternals, Metroid…); botching Fatal Frame, Devil’s 3rd, & Star Fox Zero; giving 3DS way more love…
*& who could honestly blame them when 3rd parties have done the same? Abandoning their own genres & franchises (Prince of Persia? 3D Rayman? Burnout? Ridge Racer? Tenchu?); placing their remaining franchises in different genres ’til the only commonalities left are superficialities (Final Fantasy? Resident Evil? Tomb Raider? Silent Hill?); making in-house knockoffs rather than spinoffs (Watch_Dogs & Assassin’s Creed); putting graphics above substance (Final Fantasy? Silent Hill?)…
Interestingly, and thank you for this long and informative as well as just entertaining comment (I chose Dreamcast first by the way and was devastated at its demise, and then went Gamecube, had an Xbox but never went PS2 or anything Sony after the PS1)… but as I was saying, interestingly, it is really only the NX that will or could alter how you view console gaming going into the future. It seems that outside some sort of VR experience, the other companies will just be building on what they trotted out in the PS4 and XB1; I only see Nintendo as a possible innovator. While I won’t speculate, I have a good feeling they will see what the electronics/computing/gaming industry is now and put the best of it in the new device while also offering something unexpected. As generalized as that sounds and maybe a bit silly, A home/handheld hybrid would be pretty amazing if done right
Exactly the nx better be good or that will take a huge chunk out of nintendos revenue and i cant wait to see what the drones say to try to defend the nx if it is bad
That was some nice stuff to read… Some different views, but intelligent. One turd to spoil the bunch though, anyone find it?
Would it happen to be the usual Suspect/ “Everyone’s Favourite Analyst” (As MNN so aptly named him) Pachter?
ding-ding-ding… and you know what, that little tidbit about a delay is just to get people riled up. Now, it might be true and the delay could only be a month, or six, as he stills believes it would likely be before the holiday (well before as he puts it, which makes the delay seem less likely). I almost think the March ’17 launch goal is to thwart a delay, but it is hard to say. His point that it might be better to have the launch earlier in a fiscal may or may not be justified. I am not sure if the numbers matter in that sense. It might actually be what saves the year so that is the latest possible date and to have some big numbers for a month would make things look better, or if it is a slow build, fiscal year 16-17 is a wash as it is so they can look ahead to a momentum into the ’17 holiday
I think the guy is just butt hurt at how bad he is at his job. Didn’t he say the NX would come out this year just a few weeks back? And that Miitomo would be a failure? Dude is bringing in Gold at the fail-Olympics.
Lewis Ward is spot on.
Patrick Walker & Lewis Ward make the most sense.
Damn. For a second there, I thought Pachter wasn’t among them. But he is. And what he said ticks me off even if it does have a twinge of logic behind it. But that’s Pachter for us. Always stating the obvious.
You had to include Patcher, huh? This guy doesn’t even qualify as an analyst.
I find it funny that none talk about their current customers and how are gonna react to the change, is like they take them for granted, when in reality is all they have.
Exactly and it will be interesting to see how the fans react
What pisses me off about the third console comment is that Nintendo was here before PlayStation and XBox. But they had to be stupid and do their own thing. They allowed the other two to come in and take over their own market. They decided to go all motion control and “innovations” and shit, and now they are having trouble trying get back into their own market. We’re a gaming machine they said. We only play games, not DVDs. That was a huge mistake. Motion controls will be our main feature. Um. No. They were interesting when they came out, but they should never have been the main attraction. Many gamers are way over the motion control fad. There are some who enjoy the motion controls, so don’t eliminate them entirely. But most games should have normal controls as the priority, and motion controls as a secondary option. Nintendo was the king. And now it’s the little bitch getting pushed around by the new kids on the block. Microsoft and Sony took Nintendo’s lunch money and then made Nintendo thank them for it. It’s so frustrating. What can a third console provide? Nintendo IP and third party games! If they get third party back and continue to make their own great games, they can be on top again. Cut out the “innovations” and just make a fucking normal (powerful) console so third party comes back. And stop chasing the casuals. It’s not fucking rocket science…. Oh, and I played an hour of Star Fox Zero. Controls thus far are fucking stupid. Just as I feared. I’m sure with lots of practice I can master them. But what the fuck was wrong with the Star Fox 64 controls??? That game was great. Smooth. Zero? Thus far, innovation forced-fed to us has lessened the potential of this game. Innovation. Innovation. Innovation. Fuck this kind of innovation. Who ever even asked for motion controls in the first place? Eh. I’m done ranting.
Well said. I agree.
-||This is supposed to be about gaming only, the other 2 ruined gaming by adding multimedia nonsense that has nothing to do with gaming at all like dvd||-
-||Other than that, too much innovation must decrease||-
I seriously can’t undestand why people have so much trouble with the controls. Did you jump straight to the game or did you play the training missions before that?
I did that intro thing when the game started up. Are the other training things helpful?
Yup. I’ve been replaying the walker one just for fun for a good while now. There’s a lot of depth to the arwing-walker combo, and it clicks pretty soon.
I beat the game. Not all medals and everything, but the main game. Played a few levels multiple times to get some medals. I still hate the controls. I got better at them obviously, since I beat the game, but I just don’t enjoy the control scheme at all.
I got to the point where i rarely look at the second screen and just play it like a regular starfox game, i actually had more trouble adjusting to using the right analog stick for barrel rolls because of years of using z or r lol
i only use the second screen when i want really precise shots or certain boss fights
but yeah, you guys need to just give it a chance, the controls really do click right away and if you turn off the motion controls to use them only when shooting all it does is improve your accuracy because you only need to use the motion ever so slightly while still using the left analog stick to aim
I beat the game, but still hate the controls. I turned the motion controls off almost immediately, but you still have to use them at times. Even with them off, the controls are kind of annoying. It’s one of those things where some people hate and some people love it. Which is why they should not be forced, but optional.
The motion controls wouldn’t be so bad if they were at least an option or even a damn difficulty setting.
Have you played it yet?
Nope. lol Not going to, either. Not unless it gets ported to the NX down the road. Same with Fatal Frame V & Xenoblade Chronicles X. I’m done with Wii U. So sick of everything wrong with it. Til NX comes out, I’m all in with PlayStation 4 & Nintendo 3DS. Unless NX is just more of the same bullshit. :/ But I’m not ready to give up hope on Nintendo, the former King of Gaming, just yet so I can’t think of the worst case scenario right now.
Oh & Tokyo Mirage Sessions #FE. Am… am I missing anything?
I got it for the opposite reason. I’m fully prepared for the NX to not be what I want and the Wii U being my last console, so no reason to wait for one of the last games I may ever buy. Of course I’m hoping the NX really amazes me, but until it does, I will not put games on hold. Especially since this and Zelda are the only announced games I want.
You speak the truest of words but i highly doubt they would be on top but would be able to compete or at least do much more then what they are doing now and microsoft and sony already have their fans but many may decide to also get the nx and they would have to do things to bring those people in which for nintendo is really hard to do since they are fuckin stupid and yeah im sick of stupid fucking nintendo doing dumb shit make a powerful console for all 3rd parties to use then introduce your dumbass innovations
-||All I read was: My name is Brucelee123/Dannymyers321 and I want to get banned for the third time||-
If you really read that after that long comment then you truly are retarded and keep being stupid ya drone
-||I got you banned last time, I will again, keep trying me savage||-
Ok and loo i will keep coming back and commenting like i am until nintendo improves themselves which is hopefully with the nx
-||You’ll be banned until you learn your place or become civilized||-
it would be funny if sickr has been roleplaying as a space robot nerd on his own site this whole time lol
Oh my God! What if you are actually right!? O.O
Continue to be banned because of my opinions or be a drone i think i will continue to be banned you retard
-||That’s not why you get banned||-
Then why is it because you cant handle the opinions or what
-||No||-
-||If I truly couldn’t handle the amount of opinions that goes against mine on this base, I would get more than half banned||-
Then shut the fuck up
-||You’re mind simply can’t grasp it, this just made you go one step further into a third banishment||-
Shut up ya drone
-||You really have nothing remotely close to a cerebro inside that empty skull of yours||-
Moreso then you will ever have ya drone bring facts to the table then we can talk but that wont happen because nintendo is still shit and need to compete with the competition and need to stop lagging behind and you are retarded just like peridot gem eat cow shit
-||And yet you want to buy Federation Force, the worst of the worst the Empire has ever created ever||-
-||So you have no logic nor argument to make no matter how much you cry for it silly human||-
I said i want to try a demo of the game now i buy games based on gameplay and ahh you dumb little shit that is your opinion on it being one of the worst games now since i at least try games in the several genres i play i will say if it is bad or good and everyobe in the comments section will know ha ha and now hopefully you can read ya ass dumb drone
-||A true gamer knows when a game is useless, specially a Metroid fan about a so called “Metroid” game||-
Wait wait wait hold up define a true gamer since there is no definite definition of the term you fuckin idiot go ahead this should be good and like i said before i beat several of the games and have played all of them and own a few and i like all of the games but with federation force i have to try it first just like i did with all of the others
-||I just defined it which makes it the definitive description forever||-
Nintendo has become pretty much the WWE of video games. Only difference is WWE is still the big dog in the wrestling community in the entire world in spite of their bullshit like forcing certain wrestlers to be the family friendly “Face of the Company.” *cough*JohnCena&RomanReigns*cough*
Nintendo, they are a distant 2nd place at best. :/
-||Well as my profile description says, it can go either way||-
With how much people have been talking about the NX needing a good opening lineup of games, I’ve been fearing for my wallet every day…