Analyst Says Super Mario Run Could Reach 1.5 Billion Downloads On iOS And Android

Super Mario Run was announced at the Apple event earlier this week exclusively for iOS for the time being. Kantan Games analyst Serkan Toto is confident that once the title hits Android as well as iOS the smartphone title could reach 1.5 billion downloads. However there is some confusion regarding the pricing for the game. A portion of the game will be free but it would appear as though to unlock the full game you will need to cough up some cash. Here’s Serkan Toto thoughts on the matter.

“As Nintendo’s first actual game for smart devices, I expect Super Mario Run to do extremely well in terms of downloads,” Toto wrote in a Kantan Games blog. “[I predict more than] 1.5 billion downloads over the lifecycle of the game, worldwide, on both iOS and Android and for tablets and phones.”

“The pricing has caused a lot of confusion,” said Toto. “Nintendo Japan is historically terrible in communications, and Mario creator Shigeru Miyamoto did a bad job explaining this part of the game when he demonstrated it for the first time.”

Source / Via

Thanks, Mike S


  1. I always hesitate when analysts predict things, it’s educated guesses. The game will perform well no doubt, but I don’t think that’s news to anyone.

    Also how is the price layout “confusing”? Many mobile apps and games allow for a free-to-try and pay-for-full-experience plans, and I have yet to see anyone being troubled.

    People are undoubtedly inable to process thoughts sometimes…

    1. ||Humans are simply a primitive species with a barbaric outdated nature that must be purged…||

      ||Light blinds you, Darkness is the only truth…||

    2. They didn’t specify anything for pricing. If it was f2p, one set price to unlock X, or a paid version and free version. What’s so hard for you to understand at a business standpoint?

      1. ||You basically just extended what he already said in general about humans and Mobile Infantry weaponry…||

    1. Some people might download it multiple times I am guessing… but depends on numerous factors, most importantly the price… free to play with a buy in later or a buy in at first. I will get it no question, but download it multiple times? doubtful…

  2. Er – How did he do a bad job? He said it would be a fixed price that was, as yet, an undecided figure.
    Bloody analysts lol

    TBH – 1.5 billion is possible if the price is $5 – and only 10% pay for the game lol that is a LOT if revenue for Nintendo for a Mario Game.!

    With the share price shoot up once th download figures are released!

  3. 1.5 billion? That’s 3 times the number of Pokemon Go downloads so far! That would be crazy!

    (Then again, Mario might be the only Nintendo property that can out-profit Pokemon…)

  4. I can see 1.5 Billion downloads over the course of the games life on iOS and Android. Not all payed, of course.

    This is actually where Nintendo can be really smart moving forward. If all the NX rumors are true that it’s a handheld/console hybrid that’ll essentially replace both the Wii U and 3DS it’ll be great news as it’ll be just one simple stop for all of Nintendo’s games and since it’ll be just one platform from here on out (I’m guessing) droughts will be less likely in the future.

    Games released on mobile will act as widespread advertisements. Think about how the sales of 3DS Pokemon games jumped after the release of Pokemon GO. Some franchises I think should move permanently to mobile from here on out like WarioWare and Mario vs. Donkey Kong. Others will give simple tastes of better things. I rather like the idea of an on rails FPS for Metroid on mobile with the real game (Prime 4 or Dread) on NX.

    Going back to NX I think there should be two versions released: one that comes with the device that allows TV play and one without it for a cheaper price. As a way to throw dedicated fans a bone I thought that since the NX looks like it could be similar to the Wii U GamePad that Nintendo could make it that so it can connect and stream to the Wii U for TV play so we could buy the cheaper version with just the handheld. Obviously none of us know what the NX will really be so these are only opinions based on educated guesses.

    1. “Games released on mobile will act as widespread advertisements.”

      Well, Nintendo did say that their plan was to make games that gives people a taste of the experience that Nintendo provides and that if they want something better then they should buy their systems.

      Right now, with your example of Pokémon sales being trended upwards just days after Pokémon GO’s release, it seems that Nintendo’s plan is working to an extent.

  5. And here we go with those analysts bunker and over hyped predictions. I hate those guys with passion and curse the days the game industry become a big business. I really hope Mario run just do very badly and do something like 5 millions or less through the entire life cycle.

    I hate this type of business where it’s free to download but pay to win or give you half a game and a tons of ads.I am glad I have a XP desktop where I will be able to play real games with less modern graphics but at least I will have a game to play with.

      1. Well obviously you didn’t get my point. Analysts for the last 4 years had the tendency to speculate against Nintendo because Nintendo didn’t have any game on any mobile platform. Personally I hate mobile games and the business model which goes with it, as well as the game play. From there I hope you can understand why I want Mario run to fail. On the top of analysts being wrong and stop dictating how the game industry should be. Hope this helped you to understand my point better.

  6. Theres only 1.9 billion apple and android smartphones in the world, thats like 3/4 people with a smart phone. These analysists are jumpy after the success of pokemon go. I have confidence it will do well, but 1.5 billion is absurd when their are only 1.9 billion phones out there between android and apple.

  7. 1.5 billion downloads of a game that’s basically just another runner? Yeah, okay. I don’t see Mario making this title better than any others. I’m already bored of it and it’s not even out. Bring on Animal Crossing!

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