Nintendo Switch

David Gibson Estimates Nintendo Switch To Cost $250 And Could Sell 10.6 Million Units In A Year

Macquarie Securities analyst David Gibson has told Bloomberg that he expects the recently unveiled Nintendo Switch to cost around $250. Gibson is also extremely confident about a strong launch lineup and because of this is estimating that Nintendo will sell 2.5 million units in its first month and an additional 10.6 million units by March 2018.

Source

Thanks to N-Dub Nation for the tip!

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72 comments

      1. ||My statistical data currently shows that a gyro system is likely to be included, motion control has a 50% likelyhood…||

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      2. Right, like how would the Splatoon port work if you couldn’t signal where you want to teleport to? You could just touch the screen in the Wii U version.

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      3. ||Different variables, constants and outcomes must be simulated, the highest most satisfying result is then applied and programmed…||

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    1. Probably 300-350$
      And maybe 4-5 million units its first year.

      Games well be the key, bring over the best of Wii, wii U, 3DS, and launch with at least 3 new games and decent third party support (this means Skyrim with mod support)

      Liked by 1 person

  1. I expect the Nintendo Switch will do well in japan the 3ds has sold around 15/20 million units in japan alone this could easily get close to that in japan which will make Japanese developers jump all over this that is why its rumoured that final fantasy 15 could come to this cause of how well this could end up selling in japan

    Liked by 1 person

  2. bullshit. Never 250 bucks, this Gibson guy doesn’t seem to understand anything.

    1. Nintendo usually wants to gain profit from day1. Didn’t do that with the WiiU and I guess they learned their lesson.
    2. Considering that it isn’t the absolute lowest quality, the components of the Switch just will demand for a higher pricetag. It might be 2017 when it comes out, but having a tablet computer with 2 separate input devices which means 3 different battery-driven devices with loading station and all kinds of sensors and stuff … it seems like a very far fetched guess that all of that should anyhow come together at 250 bucks.
    3. Looking at the reveal video, they are targeting young adults more than usual, at least I felt that way. Less family, more urban ppl who might spend more money on a device like this, especially if it’s also the device to watch netflix, tune Spotify or whatever. I felt like they’d try to go after a specific audience, because it won’t be lowpriced.
    4. in 2006, the Wii’s hardware was pretty slow compared to its competition, it was still a plain home console and it didn’t have too much to make up for the performance, except the pricetag.
    While the Switch’s performance is yet to be seen, it might be somewhere in between the WiiU and the PS4, but it won’t have to make up for that with it’s pricetag as it’s a real portable console. A laptop can be even more expensive than a desktop computer with even more power and customers will buy it because it just delivers a completely different experience for different purposes and the Switch looks like the closest thing to getting home console quality wherever you are. This alone will justify a pricetag around 350 bucks. At least for me.
    5. I don’t even want the system to be priced at 250bucks, as it would mean the overall quality would be very bad. Better add 100 bucks and give me something with a good screen, that feels solid in my hands, has a batterylife that makes sense and the best possible performance.

    Liked by 5 people

      1. I rather believe a random dude on a Nintendo forum, who gives a deep explanation for his opinion, than some obscure analyst, who quickly added some numbers together and then makes bold claims!

        Liked by 6 people

      2. $250 may be possible though $300 is likely as well. Validvalid is completely right that this thing has a lot of parts to it which, in many case, requires Nintendo to double up or triple up on certain components. But if you use the bill of materials for devices like the Xbox One, PS4, Galaxy S7, and the iPhone 7 you should be able to ballpark how much the components would cost Nintendo and how much profit they will want to make off it. From my own estimates it would cost Nintendo just over $200 to make, though I haven no idea how much the dock would cost. It’s relatively simple in what it does but I don’t know what it’s cost in metal would be but the power supply could alone could cost another $5-10. I also don’t know if it will have any way to charge the system outside of the dock since I can’t find the charging port, and if there is one then I don’t know if the charger will come in the box.

        Since people would have a pretty shitty experience with it as a console, it’s also possible that they might include that JoyCon adapter as well which might bump up the price a little.

        They’ll also probably pack in a game and an SD card(like they did with the 3DS) so they might feel like they can sell it for $300.

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      1. It well be at least 300$ that’s not a bad price though, and they well most likely offer a download program with splatoon, Mario kart, or smash brothers. So you get a free game.
        I think 300 Is the sweet spot, and 350$ better offer something pretty decent.

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    1. Do we know that the Joy-Con controllers have batteries? Remember that the rumors also stated that they run on tech that doesn’t require them and that they send simple input signals to the device.

      Liked by 1 person

      1. Mike, think about that for a little bit. You said they might charge when hooked up to main device… if they didn’t have batteries, then what would they be charging?

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  3. “estimating that Nintendo will sell 2.5 million units in its first month and an additional 10.6 million units by March 2018.”

    This statement can be true, so long as Nintendo avoids every single thing they did during the Wii U era.
    And I’m talking about the lack of marketing, constant delaying of games, making silly choices (like how they released SM3DW at the EXACT same time as PS4’s launch), etc.

    Liked by 2 people

  4. How many people a year buy a new iPhone outright ? probably millions.
    250 bucks is nothing.
    My ps4 cost me 300 GBP (equivalent to $370) and never looked back
    Adults can afford stuff, which is the market it wants to appeal to right !
    We’ve heard N have learned from their previous mistakes, only time will tell with Switch.

    Either way, Day one purchase for me. It looks amazing

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    1. Indeed people keep whining about the price can’t be to high cause its Nintendo that targets parents and children who don’t have allot of money. Yet everyone I know buys iphone’s and ipads for over 500 euro lol.

      I my eye’s a console is worth way more than a phone or a tablet.

      Liked by 3 people

      1. ||Even worse is that humans like to buy these products for their offspring which again shows their hypocritical nature…||

        Liked by 1 person

      2. A tablet or phone are general purpose computing devices. People use them for productivity, communication, and entertainment. In some cases, they NEED a tablet or phone. They can text friends, do work, play games, take photos, and watch movies on these devices and they can last from day to night without having to be recharged. A console is just for gaming and maybe watching movies, and in this case might not last some peoples commutes. A console has less value to most people. That’s why people are willing to spend so much for tablets and phones, while $400 is a lot for a gaming system.

        There value is also juxtopposed to other similar devices on the market. The Switch will be compared to the Xbox One and PS4 which are $300 or less right now. Nobody is looking for the Switch to replace their iPad or Surface.

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  5. Knowing that nvidia sold the tigra at lost in order to win the contract and there is no optical drive.the cost of the unit (which include material and manufacturing costs) should not be more than $150. I do believe the switch will sell at that price. Bear in mind that Nintendo sacrificed that mid 30 generation when they released the wii u which are according to their own survey their main target. Because of what they did with the wii u, Nintendo has to play the reconquest game with this people. Also that console could easily get the mobile phone “gamers ” and if mum and dad start playing on the switch then you have the little ones who want to copy the adults.
    As for the number I am really septic cause some wii u owners are still bitter toward Nintendo. The “hardcore / graphics whore ” are selling they PS4 or xbox one for the up to date model and therefore won’t buy the switch straight away.

    Liked by 2 people

      1. I was estimated the manufacturing cost to produce a Nintendo switch not the sale price. The console should be sold around $250 which is $100 profit for every console they sale. I would be really surprise if it cost $250 to produce.

        If you are ready to pay $350-$450 good for you but I am certainly not going to pay between £350-£450 (yet Nintendo and co do not do conversion rate when it come to sale console outside Japan and US).

        Liked by 1 person

      2. I just read again my first comment and understand where the confusion come from but when I meant: “it should sell at that price” I meant $250. Also I have a question for you guys in US, if Nintendo decides to change their pricing after 30 years and sell the console cheaper in Europe would you be happy? My guess is no

        from what I remember about how it works in US. You guys buy a console at $350+ VAT (lets take 20% for argument sake) which translate to $420 tax included. In theory it should be £343.72/386.11€ for us in UK.

        But that the theory….In reality it we will be sold to us £400/440€ which is in $435 and that expensive for a lot of people. So you can understand why we in Europe are not thrill to see a price above $250. Furthermore the PS4 slim is sold here between £250 and £390 depend on the bundle. And I am sure Nintendo will not go for the £390 mark and £250 you can get a PS4 with cheaper and better multiplatform. Exclusive.. well look how it works for the Wii U.

        I don’t even dare to speak for the Scandinavia countries who really have a some really shitty deal and pay and arm and a leg for this type of product.

        Liked by 2 people

      3. I was talking US dollars, wasn’t meaning what that would translate to in europe. I don’t feel happy if you guys have to pay more, I think every country should pay the same price in relation to their currency.

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  6. That seems a bit low honestly. Not that I’d complain though. If I can get the Switch, the Pro Controller and two launch games for something around 400-500 I’d be very happy with that.

    Liked by 1 person

  7. Anything above 250-300 bucks isn’t going to be well received. For the mix between mobile and console gaming, it should have a fittingly mixed pricepoint between the two types of consoles.

    That being said, if they released a slightly more expensive BotW bundle I would probably go for that over the base set.

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  8. Look – It’s a MODULAR system – you don’t NEED the TV dock.
    imagine – You can just buy the main tablet and Joyce’s at £150 . . Pro Controller £39 Main TV dock £100. etc. etc.

    People only need to shell out for the main tablet first off :D

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  9. 250 too low… I see comments stating that 350 or more and it is dead in the water. That is just completely off base when looking at the market landscape and the cost of consoles, tablets and other devices of a similar ilk. People pay for quality electronics, so if the quality is up there and it is something people want, they just buy it. Like others have said, ipads, iphones and other devices at seemingly nonsensical prices sell like crazy. It just is how most things work. The people on this page do not accurately represent the consumer market for this.

    However, at 250, this would definitely sell like crazy.

    Liked by 4 people

  10. I’m still gonna guess $299-$399 and if i’m wrong then oh well, i’ll save money but honestly if they can sell this for $250 and still be making a profit day one as they said they wanted to then I can only assume it’s not that powerful and might not see a lot of this 3rd party support they plan to provide. If it plans to somewhat keep up om the power side of things they’ll either have to charge more than that or take a loss on each Switch they sell.

    Liked by 3 people

    1. precisely. For all those asking for such a low price, you are also then asking for a less powerful system and then the same doom that the Wii U and Wii faced, which was not having the most current 3rd party games on the system. We can’t have it both ways. Having anywhere near PS4 power on a handheld hybrid takes very current tech and a price tag worthy of it. No way around it

      Liked by 5 people

  11. I still think it doesn’t make for a competitive home console, nor a very portable portable console. I also expect it to sell at $299, and because of said reasons, sell 20-25M total. Then again, 3DS has some games with huge fan bases (not to mention Nintendo itself), so it could do much better. It’s also a rather decent companion for existing game consoles.

    I hope Nintendo sells the NS without the dock and JoyCon-accessory too, at around $200. That would double my estimate above.

    Liked by 1 person

    1. That is an interesting wrinkle. Sell it as a handheld only for a price cut. I think the ability to connect to the TV is worth the extra $100… Maybe even if it were 250 for the hand held alone and 350 for the “full system” that makes sense as well.

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  12. $250? I feel like he doesn’t understand what we are dealing with here. This device will need some powerful tech to do what Nintendo wants. The only way the $250 pricetag will be reached is if Nintendo A) sells the system for a huge loss, B) gets an extremely good deal on most/all of the Switch’s parts, or C) a combination of both A and B. However, Nintendo already stated that they will not be selling anything at a loss anymore. So… with all of this known, I find $250 dollars to be unrealistic. (an amazing price though, don’t get me wrong. I would NOT be complaining, lol)

    Liked by 3 people

  13. People who really think this console is gonna cost 250 are in their own little fantasy dream world, Nintendo needs the profit after the Wii U bombing. I feel super confident in saying that the Switch won’t be any less than 299.99 and very max 399.99

    Liked by 4 people

  14. It’s really hard to assume a price point as long as we don’t know the specs.
    Who knows, Switch could be as powerful as the PS4 Pro. Something like that should be possible with a modern version of Tegra (at least while connected to the dock while it does not need to depend on the battery).

    What annoys me a bit is that so many people seem to fully expect the Switch to be very weak, some even weaker than standard PS4.
    Be it because Nintendo always made weak consoles (which is completely wrong) or because they underestimate what todays mobile tech is capable of while overestimating the PS4/Xbone in comparison .
    And because of that, many seem to expect a very low price.

    Switch COULD be more powerful than most believe and I wouldn’t have any problem paying 400$ if it delivers.

    This all being said, it is of course possible that Nintendo makes it weak but cheap.
    We just cannot rule out any possibility at this point.

    Liked by 3 people

      1. That’s why I wrote “(at least while connected to the dock while it does not need to depend on the battery)”, I forgot to add, that the dock could also help with heat distribution.

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      2. It could, but it would need a very powerful cooler, seeing how much size PS4 Pro requires to dissipate a similar amount of power. Such a powerful cooler, with such small space would create a lot of noise.

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      3. Not so sure about that.
        Nvidias current graphics cards are quite good at heat efficiency and since Tegra is a mobile version, it probably is even better at that.
        AMD processors, like the ones in the other consoles, on the other hand have quite often heat problems.

        So we can expect a console with Nvidia Tegra to require less cooling.
        I don’t know if this would be enough though.

        I’m not saying, a PS4 Pro level Switch is very likely. I just think it might be possible.

        Liked by 1 person

  15. Some people are incredibly cheap. $300 is kind of low if this thing has a good amount of power and lives up to expectations, let alone $250. No wonder Nintendo never wins, it’s fanbase is too cheap to put down what the console deserves.

    Liked by 1 person

  16. This thing could easily be $500. They’re putting all their development into one system so you’re basically paying for two consoles. If this works, it’ll be phenomenal.

    That said, I’m expecting a $350 price point.
    No handheld only option till later and then that at $250.
    If they launched with a handheld only option, that would defeat the point of their system. Their main selling point is that it’s both.

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  17. 250 bucks!? Hah! If it costs that much, I’m gonna have to question it’s power as being weaker than a regular PS4 which is going for 300 bucks brand new. No. Just no. Enough of this being behind the competition’s base model’s power! After Wii U’s complete failure, Nintendo needs to match power for power. 300-400 bucks for Switch sounds more like it. If 300-400 bucks is too much for you, either get a better paying job, quit being so damn cheap, or find a new hobby. Besides, it’s called saving up money.

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