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Analytics firm believes Switch 2 coming 2024 and confident original will overtake PS2

Nintendo Switch console with PlayStation 2

Video gaming analytic firm Ampere Analysis believe that Nintendo will be ready to release the next generation followup to the ultra successful Nintendo Switch in 2024. Piers Harding-Rolls speaking for Ampere Analysis also said that by the end of the hybrid consoles lifetime the Nintendo Switch family of systems will have dethroned Sony’s PlayStation 2 console, which is the best-selling console of all-time.

“Ampere is currently forecasting a next-gen Nintendo device to release in 2024,” said Harding-Rolls. “By the end of that year Switch is predicted to have sold through 146 million units meaning it still has the potential to become the best-selling console ever by the end of its lifetime, selling over 158 million units and overtaking the PlayStation 2.”

 Ampere Analysis

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37 thoughts on “Analytics firm believes Switch 2 coming 2024 and confident original will overtake PS2”

  1. If this is true, then the next Paper Mario Game will be close to being a launch title, as Paper Mario Games are released every 4 years.
    Some one will complain and say what about Super Paper Mario, that was original going to be released on Nintendo Gamecube set for 2008, but then was delayed by 1 year and released on the Wii.
    Paper Mario (came out 2000)
    Paper Mario The Thousand year door (2004)
    4 years after 2008, was Paper Mario Sticker Star (2012), then 4 years after that was Paper Mario Color Splash (2016), then 4 years after that Paper Mario Origami King (2020).

  2. 2024 or 2025 sounds about right for the Switch’s successor. I think 2025 is a bit more likely giving the Switch its full 8 years. But I can also see a holiday 2024 release too.

    Overtaking PS2 in overall sales sounds like a bit of a stretch. I think it’ll come close, but the PS2 was a wild success back in the day and there’s a reason its remained the top selling platform all these years. I think the Switch will end up being number 2 or 3 by the end of its life cycle. I’d be a bit surprised if it ends up taking the number one spot, though it is still a hot selling product even 5 years into its run so its possible.

    1. Current economic conditions make things hard to predict, but considering that the consumerbase for video games has ballooned since the early 2000s, and since the Switch bridges both the home and handheld markets – acknowledging also that next-gen consoles from Sony and Microsoft are in short supply with no end to the scarcity in sight – I’d say there’s a real chance it does overtake the PS2 in lifetime sales

      1. All very good points, however the PS2 wasn’t just a phenomenal platform with one of the biggest libraries in console history but it was an affordable DVD player back when they were too expensive otherwise. It also helped that they let the platform sell well into the PS3’s lifecycle. It had an unnatural 13 year shelf life (according to my Google search), releasing in the year 2000 and being discontinued in 2013.

        I’m rooting for the Switch honestly, but it can’t be denied that the PS2 had a few unfair advantages allowing it to stay at the top as long as it has. Though you may have a point with the PS5 and X-Box Series X being in short supply. It likely is leading people to buying the Switch instead being the least likely to be scalped since it hit the market long before Covid ruined the market, likely making it more available for purchase.

    2. Anonymous Skywalker

      Next gen coming in 2024 is believable but don’t know if it’s still too soon for Nintendo.

    3. 2024 sounds like the earliest we can get a successor. It will give the Switch OLED a full 3 years on the market. Should sales slow down next year or so they can always do a 50$ price cut for all models to regain momentum.

    4. And when is Nintendo ever going to realize that when a future console is in their R&D that competitors also have R&D and it was stupid to have made Wii U and Switch less powerful than the PS4. Who is the idiot who works for Nintendo who has made this dumb decision 2 generations in a row? Even Capcom bagged Nintendo to make the NX more powerful. So then if it wasn’t for Capcom the Switch would had been even. Weaker.

      Had the Switch been as possible as the Steam Deck then it wouldn’t need a 2nd generation console.

        1. He does have a point though. When you’re making a console you want it to run at a minimum amount of power, and the Switch was less powerful than consoles that were already out for 3 years by the time. The Switch’s mechanic worked for appealing to the casual market, but they need to up their game if they want to keep the momentum going. If they try to just match the PS5’s and Xbox SeX in 2023 power it’s going to be outpowered in just a year if those consoles don’t get a revision by then.

        2. He has a point though. When you’re releasing new tech you want it to run at a minimum, and the Switch was lucky to have a gimmick that appealed to a lot of people since it was already weak compared to the other two consoles that were already out for 3 years by then. The next Switch needs to aim to be as powerful as the Series X and PS5 at the very LEAST, but if they aim just for that then it’s likely going to be overpowered in just a year’s time. Nintendo needs to up their game since they can’t always bet on a gimmick carrying them.

          What is with this site not posting my comments?

          1. Maybe the next machine will feature 4K gaming and waterproof in its hardware. I know it sounds really expensive but maybe the company’s standard values will increase.

              1. I mean, you say “Nintendo can’t always bet on a gimmick carrying them”, but that’s how they operate. The DS was a “gimmick”, the Wii was a “gimmick” and the Switch is essentially a “gimmick” too.

                If you hadn’t noticed, the three systems I just mentioned are quite literally Nintendo’s best selling systems, despite being very underpowered compared to their competition.

                It’s not “luck” that made the Switch succeed, nor their other systems either.
                It’s them actually doing something different to their competition.

                …That being said, I would also like their next gen hardware to be a fair bit more powerful than the Switch, just to have smoother frame rates and game experience (I couldn’t give a toss about 4K tbh).

                My ultimate point is that Nintendo have proven time and time again that hardware power is not the be all and end all of a console. They’ll still thrive even if their new console is less powerful than the PS5 and XBOX Series X (which, lets face it, it will be) as long as they still have a “gimmick” that keeps them apart from their competition.

                1. I don’t think it was their dumb gimmicks that made those consoles successful. I think it was the exclusives. Think about it. Wind Waker was a system seller in the gamecube. Yet Phatom of hour glass didn’t outsell Wind Waker even though the DS install base was larger than the GameCube install base. Had they just put the damn game on the GameCube and not add that dumb stylist then it would had been as successful as the other Zelda games.

                  Metroid Dread on Switch wasn’t gimmicky and it was the best selling Metroid already.
                  I think people just wanna play the damn exclusives and need a Nintendo console to play it.

                  But I do have to give it to Capcom on Resident Evil 4 for Wii. Bravo!!!

                  1. Nah, I don’t think it’s purely the exclusives either. If that were true then where were the people buying Mario Kart 8 in droves during the Wii U era? The console may have had long droughts, but it still had good games that ended up being highly successful when ported.

                    1. Wii U failed because people wanted a entirely different console from the Wii. It was a dumb decision to play catch up with that console with power to old PS3 and 360. Let alone Nintendo depended on 3rd party support at the start. Mario Kart 8 came when at the end of that consoles life. Deluxe came at the beginning of Switch.

                    2. Yes, Nintendo have always relied somewhat on their exclusives to sell their systems, but usually those games work hand-in-hand with the system’s “gimmicks”. Wii Sports, Brain Training, Wii Fit and Wii Play, some of the highest selling games on the Wii and DS respectivly, wouldn’t even work with said “gimmicks”.

                      I find it bizzare how you chose Phantom Hourglass as an example of why gimmicks ruin games when that game wasn’t that great to begin with, stylus controls or no. I highly doubt it would’ve sold much better on the Gamecube, the flaws of the game go much deeper than just having touch controls.

                      There’s countless examples of great DS games that used the DS’ features to their full extent, WarioWare: Touched! being a great example of it.
                      That game, along with WarioWare Gold on the 3DS, couldn’t have existed without these so-called “dumb gimmicks”.

                      Metroid Dread sold well because it’s a fantastic game, simple as that. The reason why the more recent Metroid games before it failed isn’t because of gimmicks, it’s simply because they weren’t good games.
                      Hell, Other M’s gameplay wasn’t even that bad. It was it’s awful story and characters that destroyed it’s chance of success.
                      And Federation Force was hated because it wasn’t the new entry that fans wanted from a series that had been dormant for so long.

                      With all due respect, you seem to be twisting the facts to fit your narritive, blaming the failure of certain games on their used of “gimmicks”, while stating that the success of other games are based on their lack of them. The examples you’ve given for this just… aren’t true.

                      1. Wii Sports sold well because it came with the Wii console. The average Wii owner played it like 15mins then got bored. Switch sports will have to outsell Mario Kart 8 and Animal Crossing first. Now that I think of it, only top 10 Switch software is non gimmicky games.
                        Mario Kart 8 non gimmicky
                        Smash Bros non gimmicky
                        Animal Crossing non gimmicky just to name a few.

                        Had they made the Wii U as powerful as PS4 and made it 100% different from the Wii it would had sold better. Who is going around in 2022 playing Wii Sports in 2006?

                      2. Wii Sports came with the console. Why else is it the only gimmicky game on Wii which sold over 100 million? I doubt that gimmicky Switch sports will outsell Wii Sports.

                        Did non gimmicky Skyward Sword on Switch outsell the original gimmicky version on the Wii? Both hardwares reached over 100 million.
                        So did the Switch version already surpass that?

                        we will never really know why Metroid Dread is a success since Metroid 3 is gimmicky and yet was also fantastic game as well.

                        I find it fascinating you didn’t mention gimmicky Metroid Prime 3 at all? Why because that game was fantastic and yet with an install base over 100 million still didn’t surpass non gimmicky Dread?

                        So let’s see if Metroid 4 outsells Metroid Prime 3 BOTH on consoles over 100 million so let’s see. Which consumers prefer gimmicks ordinary game play?

                      3. I guess the point I’m trying to make is that they need to make sure the “gimmick” consistently appeals to people, and if it doesn’t you will likely see something that is a commercial failure like with the Wii U. It’s been working for them so far, but would they be be able to handle two commercial failures back to back if one of their innovative hardware doesn’t catch on?

                        1. The failiure of the Wii U wasn’t because of it’s “gimmick” though.
                          On the contrary, games like Nintendo Land, Game & Wario and Pikmin 3 made great use of the gamepad. Nintendo Land in particular was a fantastic game that showed off the massive potential the system had.

                          Unfortunately the Wii U was massively let down when it came to marketing. To this day I still sometimes meet people who think the Wii U was just some add-on to the original Wii rather than an entierly new system.
                          Because of this, many people just ignored the Wii U which made Nintendo change tack and instead put their main focus on the 3DS, which was already fairly successful.
                          It really does sadden me to imagine the Wii U’s lost potential, literally all it needed was a better marketing team and we could’ve had something truly special.

                          Going back to my original point, a good example of this would be looking at the 3DS vs PS Vita. The Vita destroys the 3DS in terms of processing power and graphical quality, yet the 3DS still pulled ahead regardless.
                          Whether you claim it’s because of the system’s exclusive games or because of the iconic duel screens which made the OG DS wildly successful, it still proves my point: strong hardware does not necessarily make a console successful.

                          Yes, relying mostly on “gimmicks” is a risk. Always has been. They could completely crash and burn if the “gimmick” is not well recieved.
                          But personally I’d much prefer Nintendo to keep taking these risks and put out actually interesting new systems like the Wii and Switch than have them instead focus solely on hardware power and become another utterly boring box like it’s competitors, haven’t tried anything interesting with their consoles for over a decade now.

                          1. The problem is every time they come up with a new gimmick, they don’t pay attention to basic features and bank entirely on the gimmick.

                            Nintendo is the only company that can consistently get away with releasing devices nearly an entire generation weaker than the others under the guise of “innovation”.

                            Nintendo avoids direct competition and keeps using gimmicks because they know they would get blown out trying to pull what they do and refusing to adapt.

                            Gaming is already an expensive hobby and needing to get another box because Nintendo never gets anything is an inconvenience compared to the boring boxes that will at the very least play 90% of new releases, no questions asked.

                            1. Admittedly the Switch is lacking in certain features, certainly. But not enough to ruin the console’s experience for me personally (barring, of course, the terrible online that Nintendo always seem to struggle with). Not really sure what you mean by “bank entirely on the gimmick” either, a lot of people I know don’t even really use the hybrid function of the Switch and instead just use it as a home console, myself included. It’s a great system regardless of it’s hybrid function (hence why the Switch Lite has also sold very well).

                              Nintendo certainly don’t care about hardware power as much as their competitors, but like I’ve already said, hardware power is not the be all and end all of a system. Nintendo still release phenominal games despite the lack of hardware power.
                              Nintendo also like to keep their systems cheap, or cheaper than the competition at least. The Switch’s £250 ~ £300 price tag is much more appealing to consumers than the PS5’s £450 ~ £500 price tag. Obviously the Switch isn’t going to be as powerful when it’s that much cheaper, though I do admit that it indeed could still be more powerful than it currently is.

                              Of couse they avoid direct competition, it’s just good sense. Instead of following Sony and Microsoft’s lead and making practically identical boxes, they’re actually coming up with new ideas on how games can be played.

                              The Switch was a phenominal idea. No, it’s not perfect. Yes, there’s alot that can be improved. But I have no idea why you’re framing Nintendo chosing to do their own thing as a bad thing when the Switch is literally the most original system to release in years.
                              Even other companies, like Valve for example, are now trying to copy Nintendo’s success by making their own Switches (quite similarly to how everyone tried to copy their motion control concept during the Wii era).

                              Not really sure what you’re meaning when you say it’s annoying that you “need” to get another box, you really don’t. Like I said before, the Switch is literally the budget option when it comes to gaming.
                              I’m aware the Switch’s lack of hardware power means it misses out on a lot of new releases, but Nintendo’s own exclusives more than make up for it in my eyes.

                              If you want to play new releases of games the Switch can’t run, just invest in a PC. Sony and Microsoft don’t have enough exclusives to make their dull boxes worth the £500+ it costs to get them. Switch + PC is the golden combo.

                              1. I’m talking about Nintendo’s decisions in general. They have operated like this for a long time off in their own little world absolutely not listening to anyone else and you have to play by their rules. No one can deny they make good games, but I consider them very arrogant and greedy.

                                I did say this a couple years ago, but Nintendo’s exclusives alone are no longer enough for me to overlook everything that they do and they need to put effort into actually improving things. If Switch 2 for example ends up the same way, I’m just not going to bother. I gave them the benefit of the doubt when Switch was still new without many features and NSO just started.

                                I can’t really agree with you about a lot of things here, but I’m not going to try and change your mind about it. Perhaps at some point, you might understand where I’m coming from. But I will agree that Switch+PC is indeed pretty golden. PC is where I prefer playing mostly.

                              2. Ok ok. Gimmicks do play a role too. 2DS and Switch mini are the least selling models. After all some weeks PS5 outsells the Switch mini in Japan. And you also right. PS5 in Japan can sell over 10k units but no one is buying there non gimmicky software.

                              3. I was also looking at lady Gruntilda the same. The great Iwata was that man. A truly great man.

                                F=ma.

                                1. Iwata was alive when Wii U was out. That was a gimmick that failed. The 3DS that was a gimmick. It failed at first….until they lowered the price. Virtual Boy was a gimmick.
                                  Super Nintendo didn’t outsell NES. N64 didn’t outsell SNES. And GameCube didn’t outsell N64.

                                  Every generation sells just getting weaker and weaker because of them thinking putting Gamecube with super small CDs was a good idea.
                                  Wii U didn’t outsell the Wii.

                                  And yes Wii was successful but how long were people playing it for like 4 minutes?

                                  Then they try something NeW for the Switch. They almost had a perfect console yet failed in the power department. Who works on something in 2014 R&D make it a tad more powerful than the Wii U yet still weaker than PS4 seen how Sony PS4 won that generstion and still make the NX weaker than the PS4? Its bad enough to make the Project Cafe barely more powerful than the 360 and PS3 .release it in 2017 and then 5 years later get concerned that the next console may not be successful?

                                  So um is this next Switch just going to be just a tad more powerful than the Switch or will they finally get the balls to make something more powerful than the 8 year old PS4?

                                2. 2024 i’ll still be waiting for the 2nd paid dlc expansion for Sword Art Lycoris and the additional characters that are supposedly being added. Hopefully by 2024 Cyberpunk 2077 finally has NG+ and is in a playable state. Hopefully by 2024 they have stopped re releasing Skyrim for the millionth time and hopefully by 2024 Final Fantasy 7 Remake part 2 is available.

                                3. Nintendo releases Super Mario Bros. 4 2D, 160 million Switches sold is easily possible.

                                  F=ma.

                                4. If they wanted to make a machine that is powerful enough like the Xbox series X, then Nintendo needs to step up their game and make the console with 4K gaming that could increase the company’s value in the console market. Maybe now the Switch sales will drop to a minimum.

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