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Pachter: Sony’s and Microsoft’s New Consoles To Thrive, Wii U To Sell Under 20 Million By 2016

Online gaming publication Kotaku has enlisted the help of famed industry analyst Michael Pachter to analyse the fortunes of the Xbox One, PlayStation 4 and Wii U. Pachter sent the following email to a variety of investors, reporters and other members of the video game industry. He expects that Sony will sell 37.7 million PS4 consoles and Microsoft will sell 29 million Xbox One consoles by year-end 2016. However, Pachter expects Wii U sales to be under 20 million by 2016.

  • We expect Sony’s and Microsoft’s new consoles to thrive over the next three years, with cumulative worldwide sales of 37.7 million PS4 and 29 million Xbox One consoles by year-end 2016. We do not expect Nintendo’s Wii U to fare as well, with cumulative sales of under 20 million by 2016.
  • Our overall forecast is based upon several assumptions: first, we expect console prices to decline only modestly over the next three years, with PS4 pricing in the U.S. dropping from $399.99 at launch to $299.99 by 2016 and with Xbox One pricing in the U.S. dropping from $499.99 at launch to $349.99 by 2016; second, we expect new release software pricing to remain at $59.99 in the U.S. for the next three years; finally, we expect Nintendo to continue producing the Wii U. Should any of these assumptions prove to be incorrect, hardware and software sales will be affected, and it is highly likely that the ultimate results will differ significantly from our forecast.P

Thanks, Anony-Mouse

92 thoughts on “Pachter: Sony’s and Microsoft’s New Consoles To Thrive, Wii U To Sell Under 20 Million By 2016”

    1. Yes if the console war was only painted in 3 colors this projection would make complete sense, but he has not factored in other possible contributions to a shift this coming decade.

      Valve is developing about 3 different consoles that are going to vary in price similar to your mentioned factors. This will inflate the amount of options consumers have. Older players might consider shifting to a more PC transferable interface inside their home. Also China just opened its door and they are one of the largest PC gaming community in the world!

      Also Nintendo has tricks up its sleeve and is about to go remote in I-Pads and IOS networking. Who knows what they will do to intergrade the WII U with a more transferable USER interface. So this might also increase IP awareness (which is already over 100 million for Nintendo)

      Also Microsoft is losing Exclusivity and their OS is coming under attack, this is going to be hard for them to get past when they have to defend themselves on so many fronts. Not only is the Xbox in danger but so is the whole ecosystem of Microsoft. We’ll see how this plays out.

      1. Also to add. While consoles are already released and having to compete on one hardware build…. PC gaming, Gamepad Gaming, Cellphone Gaming, Streamlining HD from phones to TVs, will have a whole decade to keep throwing new things out at people. Just give it a thought.

  1. I know most people dont take him seriously or they do they him seriously based on whether his “predictions” flows with people’s opinions, but this man works as analyst for a long time and is not new to these kind of things. and he is quite right – if things don’t drastically change(mass influx of software + price drops /etc) then the things are not looking very positive. take your fanboism out and acknowledge that nintedo so far fails with the wii u, even with holidays sales going up(when do sales dont go up with holidays?) a bit, it’s nowhere near what they predicted.

    1. Firstly its hard to take you seriously when you damage control, secondly its hard to take Patcher seriously when all he does is rave that Nintendo is doomed crap, he was dead wrong about the 3DS so what makes you think he isn’t dead wrong about the Wii U

      1. Because the 3DS had no other handheld to compete with at the time, the Wii U is competing with the Xbox One and the PS4, both of which are selling like crazy and are being supported heavily by third party developers, not to mention how more advanced they are compared to the Wii U.

            1. My interference is acting up so I pressed wrong what I mean is the phones are a bigger danger to Nintendo and they are making money while the wiiu is on even ground against the ps4 and xbone. People forget that smartphones get be get for free while you need to pay for handhelds.

              1. Look, Patcher said the 3DS was doomed from the get go, now it more successful than it ever was and now it has 2 competitors (Vita and Mobile) but even with 2 rivals it is not phased one bit, the Wii U got off to a rough start but so did the 3DS, Patcher was wrong about the 3DS so until we see otherwise Patcher can be seen as just a hater, remember how he ranted about the 3DS? now he avoids talking about it to hide his mistake, so until he has some solid proof that the Wii U is failing, how can anyone of us take him seriously?

                1. Plus, that human being has never predicted anything with even a remotely accurate prognostics…

                  Even I predicted at least 65% more things than it ever did…

    2. The thing is that he doesn’t even take into consideration the huge success and hype the Mario Kart series have generated since Mario Kart DS. The sales will boost dramatically when Mario Kart 8 gets released, and hopefully Nintendo will market the shit out of the game.

  2. Quick fanboys, damage control!

    Seriously though he is right, Nintendo suck lately and the Wii U is garbage, I traded mine in towards an Xbox One and never looked back.

    Xbox One >>>> Wii U

    1. Atm: PS4>Wii U>>>Xbone
      As I play mostly Nintendo’s first party titles, plus some third party games, it’s Wii U>PS4>>>>>>>>>Xbone for me.

        1. That’s how I’m looking at it. Me buying a PS4 would mean: I can’t get enough good games on my Wii U and Nintendo 3DS, and the PS4 has some pretty bad ass games, either 2nd or 3rd party, that I can in no way get on my Nintendo consoles.

          The second one is probably going to get true very soon, but as I have TOO MANY games to play on my other two consoles, I don’t need to play them. Therefore, me buying a PS4 mostly depends on the flow of Nintendo games released!

    2. Your taste of games are different and thats a opinion, Calling wii u garbage is not necessary.

      Im not everyone but I have always respected the three consoles. But out of the three wii u is one that I think has the biggest potential (im not calling it the best).

      From the sixth to the present generation I havent seen any thing new from the consles just stronger machines, sure wii had motions controll but it was only a new controller.

      Though the wii u can offer something really new gamplay. Im talking about the split-screen dissappearing imagen playing with friends at home without the need of splitscreen.

      Then there is the playing without the need to pause.

      1. This is one of the reasons I really like the Wii U. The GamePad opens up for so many more unique ways to play local multiplayer. It allows for 2 players on each of their own screen (I play this way with my brother on BO2 occasionally, also allows for two seperate sound outputs), or up to 5 players splitscreen + gamepad.
        At the same time, the gamepad allows for asymmetric multiplayer gameplay, which imo Nintendo Land displayed the feature well.

  3. (somewhat off topic)

    Love how people suggest Nintendo’s doomed and never mention the 3DS at site…lol must be because if someone brought it up its good news for Nintendo and we can’t have that can we? And wasn’t this guy attacking the 3DS on its first year and then ate his words after its weak year?

  4. I remember the days we were all young and gave zero fucks about sales, those were the days. Video games were about FUN and ENTERTAINMENT, sadly it’s not like that anymore…now it’s about fanboying, attacking each other and politics.

  5. Pachter really needs to learn Nintendo properly.

    How can he say this when the AAA stuff is all out next year.

    He is a complete and utter idiot and shouldn’t be an analyst. Why will X1 and PS4 outsell Wii U by that kind of figure? He’s very precise but nothing to back the claim up.

    1. agreed. he should be fired. he was wrong about 3ds, andwill be wrong about wii u . besides the ps4 is predicted to sell about 6 million by end of march and wii u 13 by end of march. ( by their own companies, sony and Nintendo)
      probably will be around 10 for wii u though, depends what games come out before then. donkey kong mario kart and it would be great if bayonetta did too. only thing im worried is what games will be out in January………….that might slow the sales down but then by end of 2014 17 the LEAST wii u consoles will be sold. especially with Zelda smash and x coming out. also the unkowns other releases. we only recently learned about hyrule warriors and January dirercts are always HUGE.

  6. This generation might be just like the the one with the Gamecube/Xbox/PS2 with Sony and Microsoft in the lead and Nintendo far behind. That being said, none of the new consoles interest me at the moment; a slight graphical enhancement isn’t enough to make me discard my PS3 and spend hundred of dollars.

  7. We don’t need its stupid thoughts to tell us how it will do in 2 years…

    Everything depends on the revelations at hand this coming year…

    The 3DS went from a few million to over 40 million worldwide in less than 3 years…

    And the Xbox Done will fail once we show the unbelievers the path of salvation!

  8. At this rate, I agree about Wii-U’s sales. Thus, honestly I think Xbone might outsell ps4 before 2016.
    I guess Pacher was wrong about 3ds. Because he was unaware of price-cut, in that time. Plus situation was different, 3ds has hardly any strong completion. (Not sure about phone games…)

    1. Worst thing about agreeinwith pachter is saying xbone will outsold anything when this factually the worst casual and gamer friendly console.

  9. Pachter always gets a lot of hype on this site for being an Anti Nintendo Enthusiast, but aside from that…is he really famous? The guy seems to make “bold” statements based off of current evidence and only says things when he “knows” that he cannot be wrong. This guy plays it way too safe and he’s not even correct this time.

  10. The gaming industry will be on life-support in the next 3 years unless developers start taking chances on generating more original content. Get back to the reason people purchase game consoles to begin with instead of turning them into overpriced cable boxes. All Nintendo needs to do is revive their overlooked franchises and give Mario and Zelda a rest. If X-box and PS4 reach a price point that justifies their offerings then maybe I’ll care about this generation of gaming. I mean seriously now, can’t gamers see the brick wall everyone is up against? There is no room left for improvement here, why do you think the ps3 and 360 have lasted 7+ years? Astronomical budgets for big-name games have destroyed entire development studios. Companies that have thrived for decades are dead and buried now. This is a no-win situation for everyone involved, but hey, you guys wanted your Console War and it looks like you’re going to get it.

        1. Don’t listen to that guy. This is a comment he wrote. He is a hypocrite about wishing death on people, also wishes cancer among people just because they say something thats not to his liking about nintendo.

          “*sigh* Eczema you have serious issues yet you dont, frankly people would be happier if you just killed yourself, perhaps it would stop you from endangering yourself in the future”

          That guy was not even commenting on the page either. That just blows my mind how pathetic you must be to write something like that.

          http://mynintendonews.com/2013/12/17/nintendo-direct-coming-tomorrow-december-18/

          Here is proof. There are other ones as well. This guy shouldn’t be taken seriously. He makes nintendo fans look bad.

  11. Patcher is right what are you all talking about?
    The Wii U has sold a pathetic 4.2 Million in 13 months on the market!!
    Even Mario World failed to be the system seller Nintendo bragged it would be.
    The ONLY people who will buy Mario Kart,Zelda and Smash are fans who already own the console.
    People are fed up with Nintendo they had a year start on the next gen and failed in every way possible!!
    After just 5 months on the market and when news broke of the PS4 people who were already thinking about a Wi U started saving for the next gen as the Wii U was just another gimmick console with 7 year old tech!!!
    Donkey Kong games are not going to shift units!!
    Millions of fans have begged Nintendo to make a new f zero type game,a new metroid, a new star fox etc instead of the same rehash Mario games!!!

    1. 3D World did sell units you moron, in Japan and the US. And by your logic the PS3 shouldn’t sell over 20 million units either.

      1. Wow it sold a combined 740k in USA and Japan like WOW!!
        NSMB Wii sold 35 Million!!!
        Mario Kart Wii sold 33 Million!!
        Mario Galaxy 1 and 2 sold 22 Million between them!!
        Mario 3D Land sold 14 Million on the 3DS!!
        Super Mario 3D World sold 945k worldwide!!!
        LMFAO!!!!!

  12. This is what I find interesting. I have a bunch of friends who own Sony and MS consoles and are so called “hardcore fans”. They hate against one another and talk about their games are better on their system.

    I on the other hand, have all the consoles to date and when they come over, we all just play mario world or W101. They do not even think about the other system to play on.

    They all admit they love the games on the Wii U, but refuse to buy it still. Which to me, makes no sense whatsoever. They have to much pride within themselves to buy a system, that they considered to kid friendly, but at the same time they are hypocrites, because they all said they want to play those games.

    Pride is a pain in the butt and those who have to much of it are just blinded.

    With recent articles about EA getting sued over Battlefield and not to mention the debacle SimCity was for them this year or the fact that MS is going to discontinue most of its online support for the 360 by march, forcing you to buy the XB1 to play those games online while still currently selling 360.

    PS4 has had a better start than both systems but lack any real games that capture my interest this time around. For them, I am hoping for more 3rd party support to create some amazing games for the system.

    Going back to my original point. All these fanboys out there talking about how Nintendo should just close their doors and create zelda/mario games for their system makes them look like hypocrites.

    They obviously point out each time they want the game but refuse to by the system it is for. They talk about how amazing Zelda or Mario Kart would be for PS4 or XB1 yet due to loyalty I guess and more so pride, they will not by a Wii U.

    Not only does that make them look childish (as I pointed it out to my friends as well) but it also makes them look downright silly. You want them, but refuse to get them. That in itself does not make any sense whatsoever.

    As far as Pachter goes, just because a million flies eat shit, does not make it right. He is another one who is the biggest hypocrite of them all and everyone else is a lemming who believes him. If he said, jumping off the cliff is the biggest thing in gaming history, I am sure more than half of the people who read and believe him would jump off the cliff.

    Let us not forget he gets paid to cause controversy because thats his job. Think of him as a Kardashian than a gamer or TMZ of the analyst world because all he is doing is speculating.

    Will the Wii U sell. Yes, but not at the rate Nintendo wants it to be, just because you have a lot of stubborn people out there whose train of thought is dramatically different and has been programmed to think PS4 and XB1 are better systems because of graphics and tech, but has yet to prove that they can create any first party games on their own successfully. They both rely on 3rd parties to sell their systems.

    1. “They obviously point out each time they want the game but refuse to by the system it is for. They talk about how amazing Zelda or Mario Kart would be for PS4 or XB1 yet due to loyalty I guess and more so pride, they will not by a Wii U. ”
      THIS SO MUCH! Finally someone agrees with me, it is so hard trying to get this point across to those mindless idiots on YouTube.

      “Will the Wii U sell. Yes, but not at the rate Nintendo wants it to be, just because you have a lot of stubborn people out there whose train of thought is dramatically different and has been programmed to think PS4 and XB1 are better systems because of graphics and tech, but has yet to prove that they can create any first party games on their own successfully. They both rely on 3rd parties to sell their systems.”

      This as well! Great points!

  13. I really find it funny how this jackass of an analyst says that the Wii U is going to fail.

    We are talking about the company that got gaming to where it is today, and they’ve been in the games industry a lot longer than MS and Sony have put together.

    Patcher thought Wii was going to fail, but that was the best console for 7th gen, and Nintendo are going to be doing just that when the other big guns come out.

    Come on people, and to the admin of this site, please stop posting this a “news” because it isn’t.

    With more than 30 years of experience in the games industry, Nintendo aren’t to falter that easily. Microsoft have what, less than 10 years and Sony don’t have much more.

    1. Even if this ends up being true, the Wii U is still the best of the current consoles. And for one simple reason……the games. Nintendo’s games are the greatest in the industry. I pretty much always felt like, people who don’t like Nintendo’s games aren’t even real gamers. I guess it’s because I’m an old-school gamer, and Nintendo was around since the beginning. If it wasn’t for Nintendo, my childhood would have been much more dull and boring.

      As long as Nintendo never drops out of the hardware business just because their console doesn’t sell as well as the “competition”, then lifetime sales doesn’t matter. Even the Gamecube didn’t sell as many units as the PS2, but it’s my favorite disc-format game console. I just LOVE the cube shape and tiny discs. And it has SO many great games. I think that in the end, the Wii U will have a similar story.

    2. Yeah Sony has been in the larket a lot less yet the PS1 sold 82 Million. the PS2 165 Million and the PS3 86 Million!!!
      While the N64 sold 32 Million, the Gamecube 21 Million and the Wii 100 Million!!!
      Sony has been in the market a decade less than Nintendo yet Sony has OBLITERATED them in home consoles!!!

  14. I can see this happening if the softwares aren’t measuring up. that’s almost impossible though when it comes to true 1st party nintendo games.

  15. Everyone that ive ever talked to that has a Wii U or has played one, loves it. The only thing that the PS4 and XBOX one has that is anything significantly diffrent then the previous is better graphics, graphics dont make a game, unless your one of those graphic whores, everyone ive ever talked to says they they are thinking about a wii u, nintendo IP is simply tge best, and the wiI u will sell for smash broes, even the manager at my local gamestop loves the wiI u, saying it’s doomed is totally and completly ignorant, pachters probably a graphics whore..

    1. You got a point there. Alot of people too I know like it. Even though some people at my school play Xbox and Playstation. I really don’t give a shit if they say anything about Nintendo or make fun of it. If they wanna say that stuff to me, they are gonna get whats coming to them.

  16. i bet microcunts and sony fanboys are still ass hurt that bayo2 will never come to xbone and ps4, as the creator of bayo says, might as well ask nintendo to port zelda to ps4 and xbone. those that are still ass hurt let me eaxplain why bayo2 is wii u exclusive, sony and microcunts did not want to fund the game so either nintendo came to the rescue or platinum asked nintendo to fund the game and they did so its wii u exclusive. if u still dont understand then go kill yourselves and pachter is full of shit

  17. @zorbo1234567

    You really think just people with the Wii U are going to buy Mario Kart 8, Super Smash Bros, e.t.c? Then your dead wrong pal. People want good games to play on the Wii U so thats why not much people own a Wii U yet. They are waiting for the more major games that will be more better to play. Just like what @Mac said, 3D World sold alot in general, but the game only came out a month ago. Give it time and more Wii U’s will be bought. Once you see the good games released that people want, then you’ll realize what the hell I’m saying.

    1. Don’t think so because Mario Kart 8 and Super Smash Bros. will be coming this year. So expect to see Wii U sales fly up.

  18. Yeah, that’s why XOne is dead last in global console sales and Nintendo is in first. Can this guy just fucking shut up for once and stop making a fool of himself?

    1. Exactly. These fricken people need to realize that Nintendo still has a chance. “Nintendo can’t do this, but Xbox and Playstation can.” Just makes me sick to hear this. Also “Nintendo is horrible because their sales are low” like seriously, just give them a chance will ya?

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