DFC Report: Nintendo Switch To Sell 40M Units By End Of 2020

DFC Intelligence has produced a report detailing estimated sales for the Nintendo Switch. The company claims that Nintendo will sell 40 million units by the end of 2020. The firm believes that the console could get off to a slowish start but sees things rapidly improving over time.

“The Switch is a compelling piece of hardware that could potentially reach a much larger addressable market. However given the limited software and Nintendo’s poor recent track record of introducing new products we have tempered our forecasts to be conservative.”

– DFC Intelligence head David Cole

Source / Via

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90 thoughts on “DFC Report: Nintendo Switch To Sell 40M Units By End Of 2020

      1. …because he needs to be on his system 24hrs a day in order to prove there is something to play on “his” system?

        Look, this may be hard to understand but actual gamers care about whats coming out on all systems. We own all the consoles. Play all the games. Maybe if you could look outside Nintendos box you would understand what we are mad about.

        Liked by 1 person

      2. After the trainwreck that was the Wii U, I agree completely. I would be more interested in the Switch if it was replacing the 3DS but that clearly isn’t the case. I don’t need two home consoles in my life, but I will still consider buying one.

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    1. The PS4 has barely exceeded 50 million units to day in over 3 years. The console market’s changed, we’re never going to see a PS2 or Wii, or any consoles sniffing 100 million units sold anymore. 40 million in 3 years is absurdly good today.

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      1. The PS4 Pro says otherwise. Now, if they’re going to keep “upgrading” the PS4 which isn’t really a PS4 anymore then yes, it will beat the PS2. Anyone else passing on the PS4 Pro and waiting for the PS4 Pro Plus?!? The PS4 Pro Plus, a little more power and a UHD Bluray (finally)! Then there will be the PS4 Pro Plus Slim. I’m just waiting for the day that Sony decides that it would be more profitable making toasters and kills off the PlayStation brand. What would the world do then….maybe play the same games in a better resolution and higher fps on a computer? I guess that there will always be a market for those limited capability toys that they sell now.

        Liked by 3 people

      2. I agree with your statement concerning the state of the market. Last gen (Wii, PS3, 360, DS, PSP) we saw around 270 million home consoles and about 240 million handhelds sold. I don’t see the market coming anywhere close to that in future generations, asumimg of course that generations remain a thing.

        Liked by 1 person

      3. My god people, do some math.Its 4 years, not 3.He says by the end of 2020 so that makes:

        2017 – year one
        2018 – year two
        2019 – year three
        2020 – year four

        And PS4 is basically at 60 millions now.So that makes basically 20 millions each year.Im not saying that 40 millions is bad, its actually decent, but Nintendo could strive for better.

        Liked by 1 person

      4. There is a thing called a product life cycle. While the timelines are different for different products, the general consensus is consoles reach a peak selling point before they go into decline. A console’s normal life is around 6 years; it being one third of what the PS2 sold in half the time doesn’t mean it’s going to catch up or come close. In fact, it’s significantly more likely that it ends at 80 million or so. The ONLY reason PS4 sales would exceed 100 million is if you include the Pro, which is a clearly upgraded console in what looks like the beginning of the end of console generations anyway. And no, it was reportedly at 53 million sales THIS week. For someone telling me to do some math, I suggest you take your own advice. That’s not “basically 60 million.”

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      1. Don’t expect analysis above 13 year old levels from people who bother to comment on a news thread for a console they don’t care about. By definition they can’t have anything worthwhile to do with their time.

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  1. I believe this console will sell very well like the wii did or even better. It’s just a matter of time. Gamers are not stupid, Nintendo is the only company making games that are unique, real master pieces of art and that thrive for ages.

    Liked by 4 people

    1. You’re an ignorant fanboy. Nintendo makes rehashed arcade games and silly motion control games. Zelda is the first game with depth that they have made in years and I really should wait until I actually finish the game to say that because I dunno, Nintendo hardly cares about those kind of games anymore. Their last Zelda, Skyward Sword was a disaster and didn’t offer much, I couldn’t even finish the game it was that bad. Ugly and boring, that describes Skyward Sword perfectly. 3rd Parties destroy Nintendo in quality games now, it’s just a fact of life kiddo.

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    2. I’m going to agree with half of your statement. Yeah, they’ll do really well with the Switch, but the sales of the Wii will most likely never be topped in terms of their respective consoles. And while Nintendo makes a lot of unique games, they are far from the only company to do so. There are several Indies developers, and the other console makers have made several impressive titles, in fact Sony has shown to rival Nintendo in that regard.

      Liked by 1 person

    3. I hate to agree with you, but you made a really good point. Nintendo is completely out of the loop when it comes to hardware, but their software is is one of a kind. It’s one reason why their games and consoles hold their value so well.

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  2. The switch needs to drop the price and bundle with a game for 250 and a reduction on all accessories. that means they need to sales 13 million units a year impossible for the Nintendo. Where are all these fans coming from the casual market, the Wii u owners that you’re not bringing any more first party games for the nintendo wii u. Fuck you Nintendo you screwed us all over I will never forgive you

    Liked by 3 people

    1. Just in case you forgot, Nintendo is a business, and they dont owe you anything, you self entitled little troll. Secondly, the price of the switch is set up for future price drops. There is a lot of tech inside the tablet and the joy cons, and it is easily worth 300 dollars when you consider that the system comes with two controllers and you instantly have the equipmemt for local multiplayer. And Lastly, shut up. Nintendo didnt screw you over. If you’re unhappy with what they have on offer go buy a playstation and get off this site. We dont want you here.

      Liked by 6 people

      1. They won’t be in business for much longer if they keep catering to delusional, fanboy apologists like yourself. The Wii had “a lot of tech”, came with a game for $249. 100 million units sold…

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    1. The difference is a lot of rigorous research, forecasting based on the past, present and future, and factors being accounted for that you don’t even know exist go into their estimates.

      That’s like saying anyone can predict the economy. Sure, but 98% of that would be ignored and completely baseless.

      Liked by 6 people

      1. I got two as well, one for me and one for my friend. March 3rd is gonna kick off one of the best gaming years ever for me personally! A Zelda of BotW’s caliber, a true 3d mario, Xenoblade 2, Splatoon 2, definitive mario kart 8, and SO much more! Cannot wait!

        Liked by 8 people

  3. That sounds about right. It’s pretty close to my own prediction. I see the Switch selling, at most, around 60 million in its lifetime, putting it on a level with the 3DS. It’s best to be conservative in this case. It won’t break any records, but I think it’ll be financially successful.

    Liked by 1 person

      1. Because GameFreak is slower than Nintendo when it comes to catching up to the current generation. They did take 10 years to get into 3D polygons while everyone else was already doing them. Just saying. lol

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      1. At $300 the console is overpriced sorry to tell you. There is a handheld with 4k output, good graphics and way better battery life produced by Nvidia that costs 200 and comes bundled with a control. The price of the switch seemed alright to me at first but with all the shortcomings that Nintendo has revealed such as paid online, separate app for voice chat, etc. It’s definitely clear that it’s overpriced. I have the switch preordered I’m just waiting on more details to be revealed to decide whether ill be spending $300 dollars for it or just wait for the eventual price drop like the 3ds eventually had when it was overpriced.

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      2. The “overpriced” thing to me makes no sense. Yes there are cheaper things on the market, but simply put, you can’t buy anything on the market at all that does what the Switch is going to do. To my knowledge, there is no console that lets you take AAA home console quality games on the go. Also the switch comes bundle with a controller (two depending on how you play) with way more tech than whatever system you’re talking about

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      3. True but the thing is that their adding tech that nobody particularly cares for. Some might like it but it’s not tech that has shown any demand or is game changing. There’s no need for HD rumble. There’s no need for all those motion controls that games never take any advantage of. I’m also hearing the touchscreen is also supposed to provide haptic feedback which again is not really necessary. Also, in reference to the nvidia handheld. It’s been out for more than a year now ,the Nvidia shield k1, Nvidia was going to launch a successor before they scrapped it because of the deal with Nintendo most likely and according to the current specs of the switch that have been rumoured it is about the same in regards to graphics. Of course nobody knows exact switch specs right now besides Nintendo and the developers. But the handheld is able to stream some PC games over wifi and again can output at 4k. The only thing that Nintendo has over everyone else are it’s IPS which are great but again I don’t think they should be charging $300 for it when the ps4 is priced the same has a game included and is more powerful. Their mistake was in marketing it as a home console because now that’s what people are comparing it to. If it was marketed as a handheld there would be way more praise for it.

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      4. Y’all have entirety the wrong impression. Watch some of the videos of people who played the Switch so far. 90% of them say HD Rumble is the real deal. The reception of the major on so far has been largely positive so I have no idea what you guys are talking about when you say nobody wanted that tech.

        I’m aware of the NVidia deal and the Shield. How many people have it? What’s the reception? Is it getting Zelda or Mario?

        & if you care so much about 4K and Power, buy a PC. You do realize the PC kills the PS4 in power, right? Or get you a PS4. Its cheaper, right?

        We Nintendo fans buy the consoles, not for power which is silly, but the properties. We want to play games that are fun to play, by ourselves and with others, and Nintendo honestly is the only gaming company that prioritizes fun over specs, cinematic experiences and other silly things that are more movie than video game.

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      5. I have every gaming console currently except for a PC and yes that includes ps4. And just because Nintendo makes great games doesn’t mean they can overcharge us without justification. I’m almost positive u did not even know wt HD rumble was before Nintendo stated it was in the switch. Nintendo want to charge for online now without giving details on their online infrastructure. They want to outsource voice chat to an app on your phone which is a horrible idea.They basically want you to be a zombie and purchase whatever they spew out with the only reason being ips. Just because your a fan doesn’t mean u should blindly follow anything they put out. Which is exactly how your sounding right now. Their being really shady with their console no denying it

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      6. Lol read the previous comments there’s plenty on there for you to go through. Obviously u don’t know the meaning of logic to be throwing it around in a pointless comment that does nothing to counter anything I have said. Try again when you can contribute something otherwise just don’t comment thanks =)

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      7. The only thing you said that I agree with is the phone app (it’s incredibly stupid to outsource voice chat to your phone in my opinion and how effective this will be remains to be seen). Other than that you have failed to convince me that $300 is overpriced for the Switch with everything it can do.

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      8. Nobody is interested in the tech inside those controllers though, Yes they have a lot inside but who cares? The tech is basically just jiggling the controller again.

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  4. It’s also worth noting they also predicted the Wii U would hit 25 million units in its lifetime, but they only got just over halfway there. Not that I think the Switch is going to do badly, quite the opposite, I’m just wary of random numbers being thrown at these estimates.

    As for the comments here saying the price should drop, I disagree. The base unit is fairly reasonably priced for what it is – remember that the 3DS launched at $50/£50 cheaper, but came with less in the box. Of course sales of that picked up after the price cut, but that’s inevitable, the true problem was the lack of strong software for its first year. The problem with the Switch right now is the cost of additional peripherals and controllers – £70 for a pair of Joy-cons? Give me a break! I’m not spending that on a controller.

    Liked by 1 person

  5. @noahth That seems perfectly reasonable to me. I am hoping for something closer to the SNES, but 30m+ would be passable. I am sure Nintendo would have been much happier if the Wii U could boast those numbers.

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  6. i want the switch to succeed but i don’t think it will sell 40m units in 3 years, it will sell 500m units in 3 years, jk, it will probably 25m units in 3 years unless nintendo get awesome 3rd party games and a lot of them and we have to buy them and just say we want it but not actually buying it.

    Like

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