Nintendo Switch

Analytics firm believes that the Nintendo Switch family of systems will sell over 155 million units by the end of 2025

Piers Harding-Rolls, an analyst at Ampere Analysis, has said that the company believes that the Nintendo Switch family of systems will shift over 155 million units by the end of 2025. The company expects the recently announced Nintendo Switch (OLED Model) will sell roughly five million units by the end of 2021. The Nintendo Switch (OLED Model) will be released on 8th October. Piers Harding-Rolls expects that the newer model will slowly replace the current model and he doesn’t believe that Nintendo will release a slightly more powerful Switch Pro system. He thinks that the Kyoto-based company will hold off and release their much more powerful next generation platform sometime in 2024.

“Improving the flagship version of the Switch will add further momentum to the platform and freshen it up for the next few years of the cycle,” he says. “The small price differential compared to the current flagship means that many later adopters that were eyeing the Switch will now opt for the OLED version. 

“I think these mainstream adopters will be tipped into action by the bigger screen, its improved legibility, and the better audio in the context of in-person social play. It will also prompt some existing Switch users to upgrade, particularly those that use the Switch a lot in handheld mode and that have the original Switch before the battery improvements.”

“He predicts that the OLED Model will sell around five million units by the end of 2021, after which it will “slowly replace the current flagship [model]” over the course of 2022. Ampere Analysis expects this to contribute to an increase in sales for the Switch family of devices, which it expects to sell more than 155 million units by the end of 2025. If Nintendo achieves this, it would make Switch the biggest selling console of all time, just ahead of the PS2’s lifetime sales and a full million ahead of the DS family, Nintendo’s current record holder.”

“Harding-Rolls also believes another Switch is still in the works, but doesn’t expect to see it any time soon: “I don’t see the Switch OLED as a stopgap release before a more powerful version of the Switch is brought to market — I’m not expecting a Switch ‘Pro’ in 2022 and think it’s probably too late in the cycle to introduce that sort of device. I think Nintendo will wait to introduce more power in its next-generation console which I currently expect to launch at the end of 2024.”

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14 comments

  1. Highly, HIGHLY doubt they will wait that long. Aside from the fact that their historical pattern would put a switch 2 at least a couple years earlier than that, they just flatly don’t have the software for it. Nintendo’s bread and butter is remaking their franchises for the new console. They don’t have that many left for the Switch. There are exceptions, like Mario Galaxy 2, but Nintendo really doesn’t like double dipping a franchise on the same console if they can help it.

      1. If the Switch keeps flying off the shelves we could wait longer. My gamer side wants something new but from the business perspective makes sense to keep selling the current one, i can’t really blame them.

        But still they could at least give better support for the current Switch, like themes, folders and more platforms to Switch Online like N64 or GBA.

  2. Yeah they are saving the last surprise for last to welcome us the more powerful platform soon. I mean, Nintendo wouldn’t even bother on bringing the most powerful system to the new Nintendo Switch, it feels like they just want show the new one out of the blue without being totally honest with us about their specs. Correct me if I’m wrong. The truth need to be told.

    1. Yes, there will be most likely a new console coming out from Nintendo next year. And BotW 2 will be a bridge game as it always was.

  3. It’s pretty typical for Nintendo to release a new Zelda Game for the old and new console. So for me it’s highly likely that they announce a Switch2/Nintendos next Console in march/april 2022 for a release in November 2022. Nintendos console cycle always was 5-6 years. And I really hope it has backwards combatibility to the old game cartridges. But every old Switch game has to be bought again on the new system. A nightmare.

  4. If the Switch shows no signs of slowing down, which it clearly isn’t. Nintendo will continue to support this.

    A new Nintendo system in 2023 is highly unlikely

  5. Nintendo has been saying they want a longer life cycle ever since the Switch launched, they have repeatedly said they want to aim for a 7-9 year lifecycle, and just this year they have said that the Switch is halfway through it’s cycle. They have also been doing a similar upgrade path that they used for their handheld line with the Switch, which is some sort of revision every 2 years. If that trend continues we should see one more revision in the planned lifecycle of the Switch, of some sort. Assuming everything continues on the track they have had planned since launch.

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